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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 06-08-2019, 14:13   #2956
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
New datapoint on the independence question:

My Scotland poll: Yes to independence takes the lead/




Just a datapoint but I can see that after No Deal hit the fan, this sentiment will increase ..
I definately do not want another referendum. I said No and I meant No, God help us we we were ruled by Sturgeon or her crown ,
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Old 06-08-2019, 14:18   #2957
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

On the other hand, the prospect of Scottish Independence happening on this polling 52%-48%. Would be pretty funny.
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Old 06-08-2019, 14:27   #2958
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Using often used Remainer logic, the vote would still be against independence.
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On Monday, the poll by Lord Ashcroft put independence in the lead, with 46% saying they would vote for it and 43% saying they would oppose it.
That's 54% not in favour. Plus the referendum would be advisory only and people wouldn't know what they were voting for.
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Old 06-08-2019, 23:49   #2959
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

The Times: Labour and SNP hint at a pact to oust Johnson. Labour will not block a second referendum on Scottish independence, says shadow chancellor.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2...08%20Times.JPG
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Old 07-08-2019, 00:22   #2960
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

That hinges on Labour being the largest party in a hung parliament after a general election, and there being enough SNP MPs to give them a working majority on confidence and supply issues. It’s problematic for a number of reasons. First, neither of those conditions is anywhere near certain, and second, the Scottish branch of the party absolutely hates it. They loathe the SNP, which presently occupies large numbers of seats that Scottish Labour considers its property.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:10   #2961
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
The Times: Labour and SNP hint at a pact to oust Johnson. Labour will not block a second referendum on Scottish independence, says shadow chancellor.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2...08%20Times.JPG
That would be very short sighted of Labour. If they did that, it would have a devastating impact on the likelihood of them ever getting into power again south of the border.

Anyway if Boris gets a 'no deal' through, the opinion polls show that a Conservative Government would be elected with a good working majority, so I wouldn't take this talk very seriously, to be honest.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:14   #2962
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Link, please, to these polls?
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Old 07-08-2019, 13:35   #2963
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

According to the news Labour in Scotland would not be against another Referendum , So there goes my vote for Labour,
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Old 07-08-2019, 14:35   #2964
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by nashville View Post
According to the news Labour in Scotland would not be against another Referendum , So there goes my vote for Labour,
That’s not what I’m reading: https://order-order.com/2019/08/07/s...nell-indyref2/

“Scottish Labour Leader Richard Leonard held what will have been a fairly robust meeting with the Shadow Chancellor this morning, issuing a statement:

I made clear to him that a second independence referendum is unwanted by the people of Scotland and it is unnecessary… The 2014 referendum was a once in a generation vote.
Scottish MPs and MSPs have since piled in. Ian Murray MP led a blistering attack on McDonnell, saying:

“These are utterly irresponsible comments from John McDonnell that betray our party’s values… McDonnell has even bought into the nationalist narrative that Westminster is an ‘English Parliament’, in an insult to the hard work carried out by Scottish MPs from every party.”
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Old 07-08-2019, 14:51   #2965
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Yes I heard what Richard said on the news, Thank goodness for his comments
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Old 07-08-2019, 15:09   #2966
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Vote to get the Nat out, whenever the election comes. If Labour is in second place and previously held your seat, vote for them. Happily my local MP is already a Tory so I just have to keep supporting him.
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Old 07-08-2019, 16:39   #2967
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Link, please, to these polls?
These are the latest opinion poll showings.

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
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Old 07-08-2019, 17:23   #2968
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
These are the latest opinion poll showings.

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
Thanks - I can't find one that supports

Quote:
if Boris gets a 'no deal' through, the opinion polls show that a Conservative Government would be elected with a good working majority
Those show neck and neck results (Con v Lab, and LibDems v Brexit).
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File Type: jpg latestpolls.jpg (146.7 KB, 4 views)
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Old 07-08-2019, 17:32   #2969
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

My hunch if we do have a general election which seems to be a near enough certainly is we are highly likely to be in hung parliament territory again no deal or not as there are many who are unhappy in regards to the political stances currently taken by both major parties and l can also see a lot of tactical voting as well..
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Old 07-08-2019, 17:32   #2970
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

They would probably be 'what if' polls that don't get included in poll trackers as they aren't asking the same question and are contingent on different scenarios actually happening, plus they're treated with a greater degree of scepticism because they ask people to imagine how they would feel later rather than what they're feeling now.

The standard poll tracking/general election questions always ask: How you vote if there was a General Election today.

I think the whole 'Tories win in a No Deal scenario' assumes no negative consequences for which the voters blame the Government. If we have a recession, if we have problems around logistics, if people feel less economically secure then that might hurt the Tories. I would imagine the Brexit Party would try to capitalise on it too saying they 'made a mess' of Brexit.
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