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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 14-01-2020, 23:43   #3016
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Nothing will happen until after the Scottish elections anyway.

Problem is with U.K. election the collapse of Labour and the usual distain for the Tory’s leaves Scotland, and Scottish socialists with little to choose from.

By all accounts ( I don’t live there so don’t know) the SNP aren’t doing a great job, and the Scottish elections would be a good opportunity to give them a bloody nose. If they do badly the issue of a referendum may dissipate.
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Old 15-01-2020, 09:05   #3017
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
Nothing will happen until after the Scottish elections anyway.

Problem is with U.K. election the collapse of Labour and the usual distain for the Tory’s leaves Scotland, and Scottish socialists with little to choose from.

By all accounts ( I don’t live there so don’t know) the SNP aren’t doing a great job, and the Scottish elections would be a good opportunity to give them a bloody nose. If they do badly the issue of a referendum may dissipate.
SNP and Green only need to lose 5 seats between them in order for the referendum majority to disappear.

That is of course unless Scottish Labour totally fails to learn any lessons from the UK party’s disastrous equivocation over Brexit and starts going lukewarm in its opposition to Scottish independence, or at least the possibility of a referendum (some in the party here are already suggesting this). It’s quite possible that after 2021 only the Tories and the Lib Dems will be explicitly against another referendum. If Scottish Labour remains neutral then, barring a massive collapse in the SNP vote, there will be an endless procession of set-piece votes in Holyrood between 2021 and 2025.
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Old 15-01-2020, 12:55   #3018
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

i hope Labour get a half decent leader and get them on track again and take some seats from the SNP, as long as they do not help them to get Indy2"
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Old 15-01-2020, 18:41   #3019
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Isn't it awful that we have to wish success to Labour just keep Scotland in the UK? Don't get me wrong, I don't wish to have the UK broken up; I do wish a pox on the SNP and if the Scots fall for the SNP's nonsense then, as I've alreaday said "sod them".

On the other hand if thousand come streaming south while they can, we may have a solution to various labour shortages in GB!
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Old 15-01-2020, 21:11   #3020
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

If Scotland did leave the UK can you still call it the UK...
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Old 15-01-2020, 22:03   #3021
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by richard s View Post
If Scotland did leave the UK can you still call it the UK...
Technically yes, because the word “United” was added in 1801 on the union of Great Britain and Ireland. That is the union our nation’s long-form title refers to. On the union of England and Scotland the kingdoms became a unitary entity called The Kingdom of Great Britain. So if Scotland left the UK it would be Great Britain that would cease to exist politically, not the United Kingdom. We would be left with a United Kingdom of England* and Northern Ireland.

*Wales is a principality annexed to England - it’s a nation culturally and ethnically but not politically, hence it doesn’t appear in the flag or the name.
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Old 15-01-2020, 22:17   #3022
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Seems to me that, if they secede, it would be a whole load of costly hassle to take the saltire out of the Union Flag. Plus it would seriously hack the SNP off if we left it there.
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Old 15-01-2020, 22:36   #3023
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
Seems to me that, if they secede, it would be a whole load of costly hassle to take the saltire out of the Union Flag. Plus it would seriously hack the SNP off if we left it there.
The original union flag, minus St Patrick’s saltire, was created on the orders of the (Scottish) King James, when he became king of England, so he could fly a common flag on all his naval vessels, regardless of whether they were English or Scottish. It predates the creation of the Kingdom of Great Britain and the union of the parliaments by 101 years. If an independent Scotland continued to be a constitutional monarchy then the union flag would continue to fly over Buckingham Palace (except when she’s actually there of course). Its use as the national flag would be politically difficult even within England. It’s hard to see English public opinion being positive towards a yes to independence in Scotland. It would look like an insult.

I suspect the opportunity would be demanded to create a new flag that visibly incorporated Wales in some way.
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Old 15-01-2020, 23:06   #3024
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

I’m confident, if push did come to shove, and if there was another referendum in 2022 - 2024. They would still stay in the U.K.

I also think the SNP are playing a strange game. At the moment they can ride it all and still seem somewhat relevant . But if there was another referendum, and they lost. What is the point of them?

Be careful what you wish for.
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Old 15-01-2020, 23:23   #3025
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
I’m confident, if push did come to shove, and if there was another referendum in 2022 - 2024. They would still stay in the U.K.

I also think the SNP are playing a strange game. At the moment they can ride it all and still seem somewhat relevant . But if there was another referendum, and they lost. What is the point of them?

Be careful what you wish for.
This is all party management. The proper headbangers in her party are as convinced they’d win indyref2 as they were about winning the first one. Their enthusiasm is undimmed by the minor setback of 2014 which as far as they’re concerned is entirely down to Westminster lies that they now know about and will effectively counter next time.

Sturgeon on the other hand understands the risks of going too soon. Her true position is the one she expressed in 2015 - there needs to be sustained poll support above 60% for a second referendum to be worth the risk.

She needs to sound like a zealot in public to avoid getting defenestrated by said headbangers, who joined the party in droves at the end of 2014, while at the same time ensuring she doesn’t actually get a referendum until it looks winnable. To be fair to her she is right where she wants to be at the moment, with her theatrical demands being rebuffed by a posh English Tory. She’s hoping that nationalistic outrage will now shift the polls in her favour.
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