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The energy crisis
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Old 12-08-2022, 14:09   #916
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Re: The energy crisis

Because Ofwat pressured them to do so.
Quote:
Chris Binnie, a water engineer who has advised the Government, said the sold-off reservoirs were often smaller ones connected to local water treatment plants that had been closed partly to save money. “It’s not that economical to keep the small ones going,” he said.
...
Water industry sources said companies faced pressure from Ofwat to close old facilities to save money, as well as scrutiny from the regulator over the financial benefit of opening new ones.
Water companies say they face widespread opposition in building new reservoir facilities, despite a recognition they will be increasingly needed under drier conditions as a result of climate change.
Thames Water has spent more than a decade attempting to construct a £1 billion reservoir to serve more than eight million people in Abingdon, Oxfordshire. The plans were first rejected by the government in 2011 and have been the subject of local opposition.
There are plans for a handful of new reservoirs across the country, but only one - the £100 million Havant Thicket project, near Portsmouth - actually has planning permission.
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Old 12-08-2022, 14:45   #917
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Re: The energy crisis

Not sure what the roll-eyes are about.

In most businesses, if you retire old systems/facilities/equipment, you tend to replace them with new to ensure resilience, continuity, capacity, and delivery - you don’t just get rid of the old stuff…
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Old 12-08-2022, 15:11   #918
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Re: The energy crisis

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Not sure what the roll-eyes are about.

In most businesses, if you retire old systems/facilities/equipment, you tend to replace them with new to ensure resilience, continuity, capacity, and delivery - you don’t just get rid of the old stuff…
Except they are not being allowed to build new ones.
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Old 12-08-2022, 15:27   #919
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Re: The energy crisis

At least higher energy and food prices his will make people a bit more careful about their energy and food consumption. . If we don't stop being so consumerist and generating so much waste, then prices will be the very the least of our worries.
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Old 14-08-2022, 21:45   #920
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Re: The energy crisis

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Saudi oil giant Aramco has broken its own record with a $48.4bn (£39.8bn) profit for the second quarter of 2022.

It is a 90% year-on-year increase and marks the biggest earnings for the world's largest energy exporter since its public listing three years ago.
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Old 15-08-2022, 10:57   #921
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Re: The energy crisis

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Originally Posted by Paul View Post
Except they are not being allowed to build new ones.
But they have closed ones that could be used to ease the problem

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environm...eased-drought/

Quote:
Water companies have sold off reservoirs that could have helped ease drought to housing developers, the former head of Natural England has said.

Dozens of reservoirs across the country have been given up by water companies, while no new ones have been built in the last 30 years.

Writing for The Telegraph, see below, Andrew Sells - who was head of Natural England between 2014 and 2019 - said the sell-off, with no replacements, was evidence of water companies putting profits before water resilience.

Thames Water, Severn Trent and Southern Water are among those to have sold off some of their reservoirs in recent years.

Thames Water, which announced on Tuesday that it would soon bring in a hosepipe ban for its 15 million customers, has sold off 25 reservoirs since the 1980s, according to the GMB Union.
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Old 15-08-2022, 11:13   #922
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
But they have closed ones that could be used to ease the problem

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environm...eased-drought/
While I have no desire to defend the water companies (who more than any other private utility have what amounts to a licence to print money), a bald ‘number of reservoirs sold’ doesn’t tell us much.

As the article is behind a paywall I can’t see whether it reveals useful metrics like total cubic capacity lost in the sale, or reasons given for the sales such as reservoir no longer in a strategically useful location, life-expired components being prohibitively expensive to replace, etc.
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Old 15-08-2022, 11:21   #923
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
But they have closed ones that could be used to ease the problem

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environm...eased-drought/
They closed small ones, and were pressured by the regulator to do so, in order to keep prices lower.

---------- Post added at 10:21 ---------- Previous post was at 10:20 ----------

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Old 15-08-2022, 13:13   #924
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Re: The energy crisis

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Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Investment requires MONEY to pay for it. So which country has done a better job, and is not having higher prices?
If you're not producing it, you have to import the remainder. No way around that, other than things like fracking. Using UK produced gas doesn't make it cheaper, as it's sold on the international market.
Link

Currently Gas is being used for 49% of electricity. How do you replace that?
Nuclear is 13%, Wind is 3%, Solar 9%. Not a lot of room to expand on non-Gas sources. A five-fold increase in nuclear might just work.
We're importing around 13% of our requirements.
France has capped prices by renationalising the part of EDF it did not own. We've also nationalised Bulb and subsidised prices. Investment requires money to pay for it but you get some kind of return. We're not getting that currently through our interventions.

As I've previously argued, we should have replaced coal fired capacity with alternatives when they were decommissioned but failing that we need more power generation now.

Fracked gas is sold at global prices so that doesn't reduce prices and it still contributes to the climate change crisis.

All sources have their disadvantages. Nuclear power is struggling at the moment, (just look at France both in inability to deliver new projects and issues in operating during hot summers), better storage is needed for renewables and we know the story on gas. But doing nothing and waiting for the markets to solve it is not an option.

In terms of electricity generation, I think you need to look at sources on a quarterly basis not a daily one to get a more representative figure
Ofgen states for Q1 2022:
Gas 27.45%
Wind and solar 26.49%
Nuclear 11.34%
Bio 8.46%
Net imports 4.94%
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data...created&page=4

Last edited by 1andrew1; 15-08-2022 at 13:46.
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Old 15-08-2022, 14:07   #925
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
France has capped prices by renationalising the part of EDF it did not own. We've also nationalised Bulb and subsidised prices. Investment requires money to pay for it but you get some kind of return. We're not getting that currently through our interventions.

As I've previously argued, we should have replaced coal fired capacity with alternatives when they were decommissioned but failing that we need more power generation now.

Fracked gas is sold at global prices so that doesn't reduce prices and it still contributes to the climate change crisis.

All sources have their disadvantages. Nuclear power is struggling at the moment, (just look at France both in inability to deliver new projects and issues in operating during hot summers), better storage is needed for renewables and we know the story on gas. But doing nothing and waiting for the markets to solve it is not an option.

In terms of electricity generation, I think you need to look at sources on a quarterly basis not a daily one to get a more representative figure
Ofgen states for Q1 2022:
Gas 27.45%
Wind and solar 26.49%
Nuclear 11.34%
Bio 8.46%
Net imports 4.94%
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data...created&page=4
Doesn't matter what any longer period figures say, it still represents the generating capacity you need at this point in time. At this point in time, you need 49% gas generated. In winter you are going to have less solar. The claim was that we should've invested in other than gas. Today's figures show it couldn't be done, as Germany itself found out.
Where would today's missing 22%(compared to Q1 figures) have come from instead?
Fracking gas in the UK, would increased supply, thereby reducing market prices.
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Old 15-08-2022, 14:25   #926
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Doesn't matter what any longer period figures say, it still represents the generating capacity you need at this point in time. At this point in time, you need 49% gas generated. In winter you are going to have less solar. The claim was that we should've invested in other than gas. Today's figures show it couldn't be done, as Germany itself found out.
Where would today's missing 22%(compared to Q1 figures) have come from instead?
Fracking gas in the UK, would increased supply, thereby reducing market prices.
Fracking gas in the UK would provide a miniscule amount of gas such that global prices would not be impacted.

Q1 is in the winter so another quarter would have more solar. You can't look on a daily basis for energy generation.

Today's figures don't show that a shift to more renewables, storage and nuclear cannot be done.

We need to get on with it for the sake of future generations let alone ourselves.
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Old 15-08-2022, 19:06   #927
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
You can't look on a daily basis for energy generation.
Of course you can, thats exactly what the national grid has to do, every day.
No one can run their devices on electricity promised in the future, you need it now.
A shortfall now means something has to give, or it has to be 'imported' from elsewhere.

---------- Post added at 18:06 ---------- Previous post was at 17:58 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
Fracking gas in the UK would provide a miniscule amount of gas such that global prices would not be impacted.
Well estimates do vary somewhat, but none are 'miniscule'.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstit...ere-in-the-uk/

Most of the recent esimates are around 4 trillion cubic meters.
The UK [domestic] requirement is 70 - 80 billion cubic meters.
So it could keep the whole UK supplied for around 40 - 50 years.

Another report (further down) calculated that UK production of shale gas could meet between 17 and 22 per cent of UK cumulative consumption between 2020 and 2050 (That I presume includes non domestic use). Again, not really "miniscule".
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Old 15-08-2022, 19:20   #928
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
Fracking gas in the UK would provide a miniscule amount of gas such that global prices would not be impacted.

Q1 is in the winter so another quarter would have more solar. You can't look on a daily basis for energy generation.

Today's figures don't show that a shift to more renewables, storage and nuclear cannot be done.

We need to get on with it for the sake of future generations let alone ourselves.
Providing 17-22% of UK gas needs, isn't so miniscule.
Still wondering where the shortage is, and who is doing without.

9% solar today may look good, but come winter with shorter days and cloudy skies, it's not going to reach 9%. That is another gap to fill. If you don't have gas for electricity. you are could be looking at a 60% shortfall in winter. So what viable alternatives are there for not having gas generated electricity?
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Old 15-08-2022, 19:23   #929
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
While I have no desire to defend the water companies (who more than any other private utility have what amounts to a licence to print money), a bald ‘number of reservoirs sold’ doesn’t tell us much.

As the article is behind a paywall I can’t see whether it reveals useful metrics like total cubic capacity lost in the sale, or reasons given for the sales such as reservoir no longer in a strategically useful location, life-expired components being prohibitively expensive to replace, etc.
Strange. It is not paywalled for me. Here's the same story from the Express. Note, both outlets are staunch Tory supporters

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/16...ht-latest-news

You also have the Google cache to peruse: https://webcache.googleusercontent.c...&ct=clnk&gl=uk
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Old 15-08-2022, 23:13   #930
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Re: The energy crisis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul View Post
Of course you can, thats exactly what the national grid has to do, every day.
No one can run their devices on electricity promised in the future, you need it now.
A shortfall now means something has to give, or it has to be 'imported' from elsewhere.
What's a more accurate representation of where the UK's electricity generation comes from? One day in the middle of a heat wave or an average of three months? That was my point to Nomadking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul View Post
Well estimates do vary somewhat, but none are 'miniscule'.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstit...ere-in-the-uk/

Most of the recent esimates are around 4 trillion cubic meters.
The UK [domestic] requirement is 70 - 80 billion cubic meters.
So it could keep the whole UK supplied for around 40 - 50 years.

Another report (further down) calculated that UK production of shale gas could meet between 17 and 22 per cent of UK cumulative consumption between 2020 and 2050 (That I presume includes non domestic use). Again, not really "miniscule".
Yup, estimates for fracking gas in the UK vary considerably but everything I've read says even the most optimistic outputs won't be enough to impact global prices. Just because it might be sourced from the UK does not mean it will be sold here. I think it can also be safely ruled out as a UK energy source, no mainstream political party in the UK supports it, it's a pipe dream.

---------- Post added at 22:13 ---------- Previous post was at 22:04 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Providing 17-22% of UK gas needs, isn't so miniscule.
Still wondering where the shortage is, and who is doing without.

9% solar today may look good, but come winter with shorter days and cloudy skies, it's not going to reach 9%. That is another gap to fill. If you don't have gas for electricity. you are could be looking at a 60% shortfall in winter. So what viable alternatives are there for not having gas generated electricity?
It's a case of getting on with what I've said before - renewables, storage and nuclear. And probably more insulation. The energy regulator will determine which are viable but doing nothing is not an option. Nor can global warming be forgotten too.

Last edited by 1andrew1; 15-08-2022 at 23:08.
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