Coronavirus (OLD)

[denphone]

And Raab sets out the exit criteria:

1) Confident that NHS can continue to provide critical care
2) sustained and consistent fall in death rates
3) reliable data from SAGE that rate of infection is decreasing
4) testing/PPE sorted
5) confident that relaxation doesn't yield second peak

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Mr K

We were warned with swine flu and bird flu; luckily they weren't as transmissible to humans but easily could have been. It was only a matter of time before something more transmissible came along.

It's natural for people to become complacent if these things come and go and they remain unaffected, but the Govt's pandemic planning is a shambles given they had the warnings from other flu outbreaks. Indeed its own flu pandemic exercise a few years ago showed the deficiencies we now have. They did diddly squat apart from hide the report findings in case we got too scared by it.

When/if this is all over, I think that there will be calls for an independent enquiry.

It was said on the news today that it looks like those of us at severe risk of complications arising from the virus are going to have to lock ourselves away for up to 18 months (when it's expected that a vaccine will have been found)

I also heard someone put forward the idea that all those at risk of severe complications should be shielded, whilst everybody else should go about their business as usual. He believed that this would help to quell the damage being done to the economy, encourage herd immunity and allow extra funds to be diverted to help those who cannot leave their homes e.g. 100% of wages paid by the Government, extra money for those on benefits to mitigate the extra expenses that they face. This would be cheaper than paying many people 80% of their wages.

My family lost a distant cousin to the virus the other day, which is a bit too close for comfort.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by denphone

Any possible cure will come when we have a workable vaccine end of...

The vaccine will come all too late, I'm afraid, Den.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The vaccine will come all too late, I'm afraid, Den.

Which is why we need lockdown to continue, social distancing to be enforced and break the chains of transmission. Then have a robust system in place for testing, contact tracing and yes, despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Not just medical screening - personal details. Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

You’ve got absolutely no evidence to support your hunch that these measures are having no effect on the outcome. Indeed, we’ve the entire capitalist system betting billions that it will.

Herd immunity is just Darwinism. You’re proposing to let people die to everyone left over doesn’t have the disease. We could extend that principle to plenty of illnesses - yet don’t.

Herd immunity is natural. Humans didn't invent it.

The government was very clear all along that the whole point of isolation was to slow down the virus so the NHS can cope. Did you miss that?

You have seen the rate at which the people started to come down with coronavirus. What makes you think that we can stop this in its tracks? Only a vaccine will stop it short and we are nowhere near getting that.

All those people in care homes, with no visitors allowed and not going out anywhere, are still going down like flies. That shows how impotent we really are at dealing with new viruses like this. The fact that we have managed to slow it down is a massive achievement. But it will get that 80% of the population, of that I have absolutely no doubt.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The vaccine will come all too late, I'm afraid, Den.

A workable vaccine might not be a cure OB when it comes but it will help considerably.

---------- Post added at 20:08 ---------- Previous post was at 20:06 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Which is why we need lockdown to continue, social distancing to be enforced and break the chains of transmission. Then have a robust system in place for testing, contact tracing and yes, despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Not just medical screening - personal details. Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

Listening to R4 this morning social distancing will be here probably for another 18 months or whenever the vaccine comes..

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

The EU and anything like that should be irrelevant. The virus doesn't respect borders so neither should treatment. It's to the advantage of both the EU members and non-members to stop spread. If you've contained things in your country you now help contain it elsewhere so it doesn't come back to your country.

It's why we should help other nations now, especially those that can't afford "stuff" and often have large populations in very high density quarters. (Generations living in one single room - try self isolating there) People who earn daily what they need daily.

I get your sincerity on this, tweetiepie, but the government's responsibility is to its own citizens. It won't be giving away any equipment that we need for our own people to other countries until we are sure we can cope without.[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added at 20:18 ---------- Previous post was at 20:09 ----------

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

When/if this is all over, I think that there will be calls for an independent enquiry.

It was said on the news today that it looks like those of us at severe risk of complications arising from the virus are going to have to lock ourselves away for up to 18 months (when it's expected that a vaccine will have been found)

I also heard someone put forward the idea that all those at risk of severe complications should be shielded, whilst everybody else should go about their business as usual. He believed that this would help to quell the damage being done to the economy, encourage herd immunity and allow extra funds to be diverted to help those who cannot leave their homes e.g. 100% of wages paid by the Government, extra money for those on benefits to mitigate the extra expenses that they face. This would be cheaper than paying many people 80% of their wages.

My family lost a distant cousin to the virus the other day, which is a bit too close for comfort.

That sounds like a plan, Richard. It would be good to know who suggested that. I said to my wife weeks ago that this was the way to go about protecting the vulnerable without ruining the economy. This should have been the plan all along.

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:18 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Which is why we need lockdown to continue, social distancing to be enforced and break the chains of transmission. Then have a robust system in place for testing, contact tracing and yes, despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Not just medical screening - personal details. Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

That is completely unrealistic, jfman, if you are really suggesting extending a lockdown until we have a vaccine. Apart from crashing the economy, people won't stand for it. Even some vulnerable people I know are saying 12 weeks is quite bad enough and they don't want to spend their remaining days behind four brick walls.

I think you are just being provocative now.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Herd immunity is natural. Humans didn't invent it.

So is death, yet we do everything in our power to prevent it.

The government was very clear all along that the whole point of isolation was to slow down the virus so the NHS can cope. Did you miss that?

Which results in fewer deaths, despite your assertion that as yet you have provided no evidence for.

You have seen the rate at which the people started to come down with coronavirus. What makes you think that we can stop this in its tracks? Only a vaccine will stop it short and we are nowhere near getting that.

China, South Korea, Germany. Same way we stop any virus really.

All those people in care homes, with no visitors allowed and not going out anywhere, are still going down like flies.

Because it got in. That will be schools except rather than dying kids will take it back home to their families, their grandparents, etc.

That shows how impotent we really are at dealing with new viruses like this. The fact that we have managed to slow it down is a massive achievement. But it will get that 80% of the population, of that I have absolutely no doubt.

We are impotent because we weren't prepared and didn't act quickly enough. We had a unique opportunity as an island with controlled borders to quickly identify and reduce the spread but we did not.

We have a further opportunity here to learn from other European countries that are intending to ease their restrictions and allow that to inform our decision making.

---------- Post added at 20:26 ---------- Previous post was at 20:25 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That is completely unrealistic, jfman. Apart from crashing the economy, people won't stand for it. Even some vulnerable people I know are saying 12 weeks is quite bad enough and they don't want to spend their remaining days behind four brick walls.

I think you are just being provocative now.

A frankly laughable accusation from someone who just two posts back referred to people in care homes as 'dropping like flies'. Your anecdotal evidence is of no value Old Boy. None whatsoever.

I've explained over and over how the economy can be protected. The economy will tank, as Raab correctly pointed out, with a devastating second wave of the virus.

---------- Post added at 20:27 ---------- Previous post was at 20:26 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

Listening to R4 this morning social distancing will be here probably for another 18 months or whenever the vaccine comes..

It's common sense.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Ooh, that would be me, nice to see our junior virologist still thinks he knows better than the scientists.

Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

All the stuff they ask anyway, if you’re not from the EU. Would that number be 111?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Ooh, that would be me, nice to see our junior virologist is still thinks he knows better than the scientists.

Had you read the article you linked to there was an effectiveness (44 out of every 100). There is no 100% effective way to stop Coronavirus, as I explained this morning, thus we require a combination of methods to get as close as we can to 100%

<removed>

All the stuff they ask anyway, if you’re not from the EU. Would that number be 111?

Glad you are on board that it is a good idea.

[tweetiepooh]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I get your sincerity on this, tweetiepie, but the government's responsibility is to its own citizens. It won't be giving away any equipment that we need for our own people to other countries until we are sure we can cope without.[COLOR="Silver"]

But it would be helping us. If as expected things quieten down over our summer months and get worse in the southern winter, sending help there to control the virus will help us but lowering risk of reintroduction. The is a global issue and need to be dealt with as such.
The government also has a duty to businesses that employ it's citizens. To secure supplies and markets. And those businesses need to trade so need people earning, moving, spending.
---
Reading on the BBC today that some second home owners (in Wales) are claiming business rebates on their second homes. The rules let them set these homes as businesses if they are available to let for 140 days and actually let for 70 days per year. So not only are some moving to small locations to get away from virus they are also getting money from it.
---
Help some small businesses buy buying now for later delivery. For example I get guitar strings from New Tone Strings. At the moment they are operating with just one person so may not be able to get strings out as quickly as possible but if players who don't need strings now but can order now (with delivery note to that affect) it may help them keep going, pay their bills are recover quicker. There are likely other traders maybe in your area you can help. This is all part of helping the fight against COVID-19. A sort of futures market as it were.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Herd immunity is natural. Humans didn't invent it.

The government was very clear all along that the whole point of isolation was to slow down the virus so the NHS can cope. Did you miss that?

You have seen the rate at which the people started to come down with coronavirus. What makes you think that we can stop this in its tracks? Only a vaccine will stop it short and we are nowhere near getting that.

All those people in care homes, with no visitors allowed and not going out anywhere, are still going down like flies. That shows how impotent we really are at dealing with new viruses like this. The fact that we have managed to slow it down is a massive achievement. But it will get that 80% of the population, of that I have absolutely no doubt.

1) We don't know that herd immunity will work as we don't know enough about the virus.

2) The virus was probably brought into care homes in one of two ways.
a) prior to lockdown by somebody asymptomatic
b) during the lockdown period by a resident being taken to hospital and contracting whilst
in hospital

The situation in care homes further exacerbated by staff having inadequate PPE which allowed transmission.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

1) We don't know that herd immunity will work as we don't know enough about the virus.

we don't but as hypothesis go, it's best one we have. I've seen no evidence that a normal healthy person can reacquire the virus.

There have been isolated cases but these were due to other immunity issues the individuals had.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

1) We don't know that herd immunity will work as we don't know enough about the virus.

2) The virus was probably brought into care homes in one of two ways.
a) prior to lockdown by somebody asymptomatic
b) during the lockdown period by a resident being taken to hospital and contracting whilst
in hospital

The situation in care homes further exacerbated by staff having inadequate PPE which allowed transmission.

Here is a direct quote from the Care Home (Group) that my mother-in-law is resident in, explaining they have had two cases in two different homes (out of the 60 they own), and how they are managing it - the FB Page is an open page, so I haven't removed any details. I have put some parts in bold.

As part of the national effort, the care sector plays a vital role in supporting the NHS by accepting residents as they are discharged from hospital; recuperation is better in non-acute settings and hospitals need to have enough beds to treat the acutely sick patients. If the care sector does not provide this vital role the NHS will collapse.

COVID-19 cases will be dealt with in care homes, and Avery is no exception. We have robust protocols, policies and procedures to support those residents that display any symptoms associated with COVID-19. Given that limited or no testing is available outside of the NHS, the Avery homes take the full precaution of treating any symptomatic resident as if they have been tested as positive, although they may not be.

We are all seeing the devasting affect that the virus is having on the world and sadly the increase in deaths, which of course has affected some of you personally. We will continue in our determination to minimise risk in our homes and focus on supporting residents who are symptomatic of the virus and who at this sad time do not have the opportunity to see their loved ones. Our staff are also our priority, in protecting them with adequate supply of PPE and supporting their mental well-being, as we work through this unprecedented time. An amazing team effort with our protocols in place supports the safety and well-being of our residents, and we can already share with you celebrations of success where residents have recovered from COVID-19, at two of the Avery homes, in Milton Keynes and Birmingham. Both homes had residents without symptoms admitted to local hospitals for treatment on underlying conditions, and both were returned to the care homes testing positive. In the case at Milton Keynes, the hospital only advised this result the day after the resident was returned.

Fortunately for Derek at Milton Court care home in Milton Keynes, and for the other residents and staff, the home deployed their standard protocol of 14 days’ isolation for either new or returning residents, and so he was isolated and barrier-nursed. When confirmation came through from the hospital that he had tested positive, no changes to his regime were required. Derek’s daughter Debbie explained her relief that her dad had been nursed well and out of danger: “As a family we were very worried, but the care and dedication of the staff at Milton Court is second to none, and it was great to be able to speak to Dad again and hear him in good spirits.”

The same situation arose at St Giles care home in the east of Birmingham, when Jean returned from having treatment on existing conditions and had contracted COVID-19 whilst in hospital. She was immediately isolated on her return and barrier-nursed by a dedicated group of carers who had received additional training for such circumstances. Their focus and quality of care has brought Jean back to her previous self, and she has even appeared on the home’s Facebook pages to celebrate. Jean’s daughter Tracey was full of praise for the staff at St Giles and the care that her mum received, and further commented that, “Mom was dealt with very efficiently and compassionately during her infection, and we were kept informed throughout this period.”

Sharon Winfield, Chief Operating Officer for Avery Healthcare commented, “In line with the latest guidance from the Government and Public Health England on the admission and care of people in care homes, we immediately implement our 14 day isolation protocol to reduce risk, whether a new incoming or returning resident has been tested positive or not. We have very strict protocols in place for positive, symptomatic and asymptomatic residents to ensure that we protect as best as possible all in our care, our staff, and their respective families. It is now great to see that we are successfully nursing people through this virus with the correct approach and the hard work and dedication of all of our staff.”

We haven't had face to face contact with Mum since early March, but we ring her every night, and once a week the Care Home staff set up a video call.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Pierre

we don't but as hypothesis go, it's best one we have. I've seen no evidence that a normal healthy person can reacquire the virus.

There have been isolated cases but these were due to other immunity issues the individuals had.

Then why did the CMO et all change their stance?

There's not enough concrete evidence as of yet to suggest that a normal healthy person cannot be reinfected.

There's quite simply too many unknowns to deviate away from the most restrictive method of protection possible.

On a side note, Letting 15,000 people into the country each week of fights without testing or forcing into quarantine is hardly going to help get our cases down either.