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Old Yesterday, 18:26   #3091
1andrew1
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I disagree. All the forecasts on what would follow from the Brexit vote to date have been wrong and I have no reason to believe that the current forecasts are correct either. Forecasts about the economy have left a lot to be desired as well.

I do not rationalise things the way you suggest, not by a long chalk. My view is a considered one and I will change it if circumstances start to indicate that I may have misjudged something.

I simply cannot agree that the EU is the be all and end all of everything that some make it out to be. Trade with the EU will not be markedly different after Brexit, and we will have new trade to add to it. Plus we will no longer be forking out vast sums of money for membership of the EU.

Of course, if the Government make a balls up of the negotiations I would have to reassess, but there is no sign of that happening at present, although those with their heads in the mud cannot see any way those negotiations will ever give us what we want. They will be surprised, I believe.
Jon has shown you how accurate the forecasts have actually been so I won’t duplicate his good efforts here in pointing out your confirmation bias.

How much does the economy need to suffer by for you to change your mind? Or is anything acceptable if it means we get to leave the EU. Do we actually have to suffer the loss first or will you accept the British Government’s analysis?

No one on here has said the EU is the be all and end all. People like me have said it’s imperfect but it’s the largest market in the world, it’s on our doorstep and it provides access to the largest number of free trade agreements across the globe. We’ve also pointed out that non-tariff barriers are more important than tariff barriers when it comes to trade with the EU and that services are a key export which are unlikely to be covered by a free trade deal. Both of these factors would penalise the UK even in the case of a free trade deal.

The EU negotiations haven’t been going staggeringly well by any account including the Government's. Indeed, the Foreign Secretary recently called for them to be outsourced to Donald Trump!
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Old Yesterday, 18:54   #3092
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
5

Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��

---------- Post added at 13:30 ---------- Previous post was at 13:24 ----------



You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.
Are you not just ignoring these forecasts from a wide range of sources just because they disagree with your vision of the future and for no other reason than that?

The future has not happened yet, we have not left the EU so how can you dismiss projections on what is yet to come?

Let's be honest here, you just do not like what they are saying so you rationalise them, as many do, as lies. The sad and depressing part is when this charade does play out and the UK is poorer off as a result of Brexit, there will be those who say that "I did not vote to be poorer". You may not be one of them but for many, their personal prosperity is important.

I know. "It will be fine, just have Faith" but the good ship Brexit has hit the iceberg. The lookouts did shout out "Iceberg Ahead!" but those in charge, on the bridge as it were, chose not to listen.

We've hit the iceberg but the ship seems fine. The lights are still on, the message from the bridge is that all is well and the band is playing on, where's the problem? After all, the ship is unsinkable .. I was told this when I boarded so it will be fine, honest. Don't believe the doomsayers, what do they know?
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Old Yesterday, 23:38   #3093
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
Are you not just ignoring these forecasts from a wide range of sources just because they disagree with your vision of the future and for no other reason than that?

The future has not happened yet, we have not left the EU so how can you dismiss projections on what is yet to come?
As you say, how can such analysis be dismissed when we're still in the EU?

The consensus of forecasts from forecasters who have got things right time after time is that the UK will be worse off outside the EU, in all scenarios.

However, that truth is far too inconvenient for those who prefer the comforting steer of the establishment organs the Daily Express, Daily Mail and The Sun instead of looking at the data and working out what it means.
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Old Today, 00:20   #3094
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Re: Brexit discussion

I can see the whole Brexit tower come toppling down next year and not happen
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Old Today, 02:37   #3095
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post

The consensus of forecasts from forecasters who have got things right time after time is that the UK will be worse off outside the EU, in all scenarios.

Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/
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Old Today, 03:02   #3096
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Carth View Post
Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/
Lol, I'm talking about those economic forecasters who have been consistently accurate, not some political forecaster who hasn't.

---------- Post added at 03:02 ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 ----------

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Originally Posted by Gavin78 View Post
I can see the whole Brexit tower come toppling down next year and not happen
Can you expand a bit more on this? Why do you think this?
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Old Today, 08:54   #3097
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth View Post
Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/
The thing about probability is sometimes the less likely scenario is what happens.
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Old Today, 09:01   #3098
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
The thing about probability is sometimes the less likely scenario is what happens.
Which can lead to over 16 million people sulking and chucking their dummies out of the pram , but their all over that now aren't they ?
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Old Today, 09:25   #3099
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Re: Brexit discussion

What some people seem to be forgetting is that they are referring to “parliamentary democracy” AFTER we have left the EU. The Remainers are currently abusing parliamentary democracy by trying to stymie the real piece of democracy - the Referendum.
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