Brexit (Old)

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Maybe because any politician that suggests limiting immigration is immediatly branded as a racist by the liberal left who use such slurs to avoid actually having a debate on the issue.

OK, may be I should rephrase the question - why have successive governments allowed unrestricted immigration from the EU while actively restricting non-EU migration (see 'Go Home' vans, Windrush, etc)

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

According to The Sun Gove and Rudd, along with Labour rebels, will seek the Norway option if the deal is voted down: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...ove-join-efta/

So that's about 17 MPs then...

Why don't we seek a 'UK type deal' ? that sounds the best of anything on offer to me

[1andrew1]

Not the kind of figures to worry the Brexit elite.

Impact Assessment: Theresa May's deal vs staying in the European Union
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has published a document which assesses the economic effects of the Brexit deal offered by the Prime Minister on the UK economy.
According to their assessment, GDP stands to drop by 4%, which they say is the equivalent of "losing the annual output of Wales or the output of the financial services industry in London".
Per person it makes a difference of about a 3% drop in GDP, the equivalent of £1,090 per person. Crashing out with no deal gives a drop of £1,330 per person.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-back...rexit-11563967

I am surprised May's deal is so close to the impact of no deal really

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not the kind of figures to worry the Brexit elite.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-back...rexit-11563967

It would be interesting to see what they took into account in coming to that conclusion. Doubtless, they could do a calculation based on potential loss of trade, but what about new opportunities? It would be difficult to assess that of course because they cannot know how businesses will react and the type of benefits that would flow from their initiatives.

So these reports will always underestimate the potential benefits because they have no hard information to go on, whereas potential loss of business can, for the most part.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this impact assessment!

---------- Post added at 13:37 ---------- Previous post was at 13:36 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

I am surprised May's deal is so close to the impact of no deal really

The figures are no more than a finger in the air from those who believe that Brexit carries with it no benefits.

---------- Post added at 13:41 ---------- Previous post was at 13:37 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The reports will take into account the small upside. But as we know, it's dwarfed the far larger and perrmanent downside unfortunately.

How on Earth can you say with any credibility that there will be 'a small upside?' What do you base that on?

Remove restrictions and open up markets and business will respond very positively indeed, without governments getting in the way.

---------- Post added at 13:43 ---------- Previous post was at 13:41 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

People need to grasp the concept that the bigger bloc or country offers the larger market and so has the upper hand in negotiations. Be that the EU, India or the USA. There's nothing mean about that.
If we had all the trade deals lined up that Liam Fox said we would have, then we might be looking at the country taking less of a long term hit than looks the case now. Regrettably, these deals have not occurred.

You do know that we are not permitted to negotiate trade deals until we have left the EU, don't you, Andrew?

There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes and Japan has already signalled that they will support us joing the free trade area to which they belong, which is massive.

---------- Post added at 13:48 ---------- Previous post was at 13:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

According to The Sun Gove and Rudd, along with Labour rebels, will seek the Norway option if the deal is voted down: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...ove-join-efta/

It is increasingly likely that this will be the route we have to take. It will be temporary, of course, until we get the trade deal we want from the EU.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Remove restrictions and open up markets and business will respond very positively indeed, without governments getting in the way.

We're adding restrictions to:

1) The second biggest economic bloc in the world
2) Our biggest single trading partner by far
3) Our closest trading partner by far.

It's going to take quite a lot to match that elsewhere let alone exceed it. Especially since most trade takes place between countries close to each other.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

We're adding restrictions to:

1) The second biggest economic bloc in the world
2) Our biggest single trading partner by far
3) Our closest trading partner by far.

It's going to take quite a lot to match that elsewhere let alone exceed it. Especially since most trade takes place between countries close to each other.

Are we? And what restrictions are going to be so mind bendingly crushing that it will be devastating for business with Theresa May's strategy? I see no evidence of that. We will still be trading with our biggest partner, with or without an agreement.

Incidentally, I note that Theresa May has challenged Jeremy Corbyn to a head to head debate on Brexit. Now that would be interesting!

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Incidentally, I note that Theresa May has challenged Jeremy Corbyn to a head to head debate on Brexit. Now that would be interesting!

LOL, she refused to debate with him at the General Election , why should he help her out now ! Methinks the lady is desperate !

Farage and May would be more interesting....

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It would be interesting to see what they took into account in coming to that conclusion. Doubtless, they could do a calculation based on potential loss of trade, but what about new opportunities? It would be difficult to assess that of course because they cannot know how businesses will react and the type of benefits that would flow from their initiatives.

So these reports will always underestimate the potential benefits because they have no hard information to go on, whereas potential loss of business can, for the most part.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this impact assessment!

Page 23 of that study is our friend here with a pickup of 12% in trade from the anglosphere (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and 19% growth from the BRIICs (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, India, China and South Africa) if there are trade deals. The proposed FTAs used in the study are 'average' based on previous agreements.

Here's a blog post on the effects of FTAs post Brexit - https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-ne...ow-hard-brexit

As always, the error bars tend to be quite large and use a number of assumptions and this paper is clear in taking one factor (brexit) in to account.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

So whether wages are low or not is irrelevant? So EU nationals “driving down wages” also drives down prices? I’m not sure how that supports the anti-immigrant agenda. [SEPH]: Your response is given in the sense that I oppose immigration from the EU. I've said consistently that I do not. But now you've introduced wage depression from immigrant labour. You can't have it both ways when you're espousing higher minimum wage in your earlier post.

As for Macron the whole point of trade deals is compromise, whether with the EU, USA or Commonwealth countries they are all going to want something in return. [SEPH]: Oh please. We know all that. We should just wave two fingers at Macron like we should have done 2 years ago. It's enough and to hell with him and his ilk.


The USA want to sell us chlorinated chicken, the French want fishing rights, we want “frictionless trade” without freedom of movement. I don’t think any of this is hugely surprising or necessarily needs to evoke the adjectives used for the EU when if the shoe was on the other foot, or we had anything meaningful to trade with the EU, we would use that as leverage. [SEPH]: You base your argument on a meaningless scenario (highlighted). The point is that the EU are laughing up our asses because May didn't stand up to them 2 years ago (having been warned by Varoufakis) and show clearly that we were planning for no deal. She has a lot to answer for.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The reports will take into account the small upside. But as we know, it's dwarfed the far larger and perrmanent downside unfortunately.

How do you come to the conclusion that it is a 'small' upside? And if TM's deal got through, which would preserve our trade with the EU, could you tell me what this huge downside is?

In truth, nobody can forecast the extent of the advantage we will have over now because this depends on how our entrepreneurs take advantage of it. How do you predict that?

---------- Post added at 18:18 ---------- Previous post was at 18:16 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

LOL, she refused to debate with him at the General Election , why should he help her out now ! Methinks the lady is desperate !

Farage and May would be more interesting....

She sees an opportunity, obviously! Corbyn doesn't understand Brexit and doesn't know where he stands on it. A debate on this subject will demonstrate to the electorate who would make a better leader.

---------- Post added at 18:26 ---------- Previous post was at 18:18 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Page 23 of that study is our friend here with a pickup of 12% in trade from the anglosphere (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and 19% growth from the BRIICs (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, India, China and South Africa) if there are trade deals. The proposed FTAs used in the study are 'average' based on previous agreements.

Here's a blog post on the effects of FTAs post Brexit - https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-ne...ow-hard-brexit

As always, the error bars tend to be quite large and use a number of assumptions and this paper is clear in taking one factor (brexit) in to account.

They are figures which have been assumed and may as well have been plucked out of the air. Never take such forecasts as gospel, they always turn out to be very wrong in my experience.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by jfman

You can’t actually quantify any of this. It’s just a checklist of xenophobic statements. The facts are EU nationals are net contributors to the UK economy.

If there’s a strain on public services it’s because they are chronically underfunded. That’s a political choice by people who want low tax and don’t mind austerity as long as they are fine.

If wages are too low why not vote for a party advocating a higher minimum wage? Again these are political choices by both parties, doing so while pointing at the “bogey man” of the EU.

I have experience of immigrants, their jobs, their pay and their history of benefit claims due to past and present roles.

Assumptions are seldom true and never helpful.

[Hom3r]

I think vince cable is broken and stuck in a loop as the old fool keeps wining on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about another vote.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Beggars can't be choosers Richard. Other countries are in the market for medical staff (e.g Germany); why would they want to come here where they won't be permanent and apparently unwelcome ?


We don't have enough young people and too many old people, that situation is going to get worse especially with Brexit as our youngsters seek better opportunities elsewhere. Meanwhile Little England is left to fester with the whining oldsters who produce nothing but demand everything.

Maybe there is a case for being more generous to those who are doing us a favour by coming here as opposed to the other way round.

Having said that, even health care will be affected by automation. GP's may initially be replaced by AI and robots may keep an eye on the sick, elderly and disabled in their own homes; reporting back via the internet.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

I have experience of immigrants, their jobs, their pay and their history of benefit claims due to past and present roles.

Course you have - let me guess, you can’t discuss these ‘roles’...

I have experience of violent racist thugs (BNP and EDL), but, strangely enough, I do not make the assumption that they represent all, or even the majority, of Brits, so don’t judge all Brits on the inappropriate behaviour of a few.