[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[pip08456]

I expected nothing less from the proEU camp. There will be more scaremongering to come no doubt the Brexit side will do it as well. It is expected of politicians, we should be used to it.

Recently the skeleton of the first politician was discovered.

[Osem]

Ignore the figures bring quoted and ask yourselves if you want to be part of 'ever closer union', not only more of the same but 'ever closer union', embracing nations like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro for example. If we're struggling to cope with massive migration now, how much worse will it be when these poorer countries (and others) eventually join. Look around and see what's happened whilst we've been the EU's second largest net contributor and what little influence we've had in securing reform over the last few decades. Is that situation going to change for the better or the worse if we remain?

People like Osborne can conjure up whatever figures they like but for me this is about taking the one chance we're likely to get to extricate ourselves from this shambles and take back control of our destiny. I'm not going to waste that chance.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by denphone

He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.

He's turned the diarrhea dial right up with that one.

It's disgusting that the government are able to use taxpayers' money to churn this bovine excrement out. Even some in favour of our remaining are disgusted.

Vote Leave, the official Out campaign, has released a rebuttal of the Treasury’s analysis document.

Below are the key points they’ve picked, among them the fact that it shows the government breaking its 100k net migration target and failed to consider new trade deals with non-EU countries after Brexit.

Here are their key points:

The £4,300 figure is based on the Government breaking its promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.

If there were 6% fewer households than are currently predicted for 2030 due to lower net migration, there would be no reduction in household income at all (even assuming the Treasury are right that GDP would be 6.2% smaller in 2030 than it otherwise might have been).

The report fails to take account of savings from cutting the cost of EU regulation if we Vote Leave, which the Treasury has previously admitted are as high as 7% of GDP, or £4,638 per household.

The Government calculates its £4,300 figure by dividing a putative 6.2% lesser increase in GDP by 2030 by the current number of households – this is just another example of the Government using dodgy numbers.

The report downplays or ignores other benefits of leaving the EU, including striking free trade agreements with major emerging economies and cutting the UK’s budget contributions.

At no point does the report state that the UK economy will contract if we Vote Leave. The Treasury report admits that the UK will grow if it strikes a free trade deal with the EU.

[Bircho]

Originally Posted by denphone

He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.

No need to misquote unless you have to. He actually said GDP could potentially fall by 6.2% which would mean the Government would lose £36bn in tax receipts - the equivalent of £4,300 per household (or 8p in the basic rate of Income Tax or 7p VAT).

That would be based on the Canada model that some people are advocating. As I mentioned in an earlier post (before George Osbourne) that would be because under this model we would not be able to trade services with EU.

If this is wrong, please tell me why - rather than just saying he is talking rubbish please explain why this is.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Bircho

No need to misquote unless you have to. He actually said GDP could potentially fall by 6.2% which would mean the Government would lose £36bn in tax receipts - the equivalent of £4,300 per household (or 8p in the basic rate of Income Tax or 7p VAT).

That would be based on the Canada model that some people are advocating. As I mentioned in an earlier post (before George Osbourne) that would be because under this model we would not be able to trade services with EU.

If this is wrong, please tell me why - rather than just saying he is talking rubbish please explain why this is.

He said it would rise by 6.2% less than predicted under their model if we remain, and that the government would hence receive less tax than forecast. They would not lose any tax receipts, the receipts would grow less quickly.

You're welcome.

EDIT: It should also be noted the model excluded the impact of lower budget contributions, if any, potential positive impact of deregulation within the UK, and impact of free trade outside the EU.

Again, you're very welcome.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by denphone

He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.

Is this the same George Osbourne the electorate trust to run the UK Economy?

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Osem

Ignore the figures bring quoted and ask yourselves if you want to be part of 'ever closer union', not only more of the same but 'ever closer union', embracing nations like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro for example. If we're struggling to cope with massive migration now, how much worse will it be when these poorer countries (and others) eventually join. Look around and see what's happened whilst we've been the EU's second largest net contributor and what little influence we've had in securing reform over the last few decades. Is that situation going to change for the better or the worse if we remain?

People like Osborne can conjure up whatever figures they like but for me this is about taking the one chance we're likely to get to extricate ourselves from this shambles and take back control of our destiny. I'm not going to waste that chance.

Unfortunately a lot of voters won't see it that way. They will see it as if they are going to be worse off. It's only a forecast based on a Canadian style deal with the EU. It's just been of fact check on BBC news and they poo-pooed it.

Originally Posted by ianch99

Is this the same George Osbourne the electorate trust to run the UK Economy?

Yes - the one the electorate voted in, as he seemed to the most competent at the time...

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Yes - the one the electorate voted in, as he seemed to the most competent at the time...

Says much for the alternatives.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Bircho

No need to misquote unless you have to. He actually said GDP could potentially fall by 6.2% which would mean the Government would lose £36bn in tax receipts - the equivalent of £4,300 per household (or 8p in the basic rate of Income Tax or 7p VAT).

That would be based on the Canada model that some people are advocating. As I mentioned in an earlier post (before George Osbourne) that would be because under this model we would not be able to trade services with EU.

If this is wrong, please tell me why - rather than just saying he is talking rubbish please explain why this is.

You are correct here but if we stay in, what would GDP be in 2030? The leave campaign should ask him that. See fact check BBC they have dismissed it as wrong.

---------- Post added at 15:24 ---------- Previous post was at 15:21 ----------

We do not want a Canadian, Swiss or Norwegian type of deal, we want our own deal. If we have to use one of those in the meantime, Canada is not the one to use.

---------- Post added at 15:27 ---------- Previous post was at 15:24 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Says much for the alternatives.

Indeed but the way this lot are going it could be 12% down by 2030? The truth is they can't know. They can't know the population by 2030. The figures were based on 2015 figures and supposition. They mentioned nothing about the possibilities of the other 2 scenarios of Swiss and Norwegian style deals.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Is this the same George Osbourne the electorate trust to run the UK Economy?

Indeed it is and l thought Brown was bad but George is running him closely.

---------- Post added at 15:36 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Unfortunately a lot of voters won't see it that way. They will see it as if they are going to be worse off. It's only a forecast based on a Canadian style deal with the EU. It's just been of fact check on BBC news and they poo-pooed it.

l have not made up my mind yet but all we seem to be getting is exaggerated lies and misinformation from both sides sadly and l cannot see that changing.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by denphone

Indeed it is and l thought Brown was bad but George is running him closely.

---------- Post added at 15:36 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------



have not made up my mind yet but all we seem to be getting is exaggerated lies and misinformation from both sides sadly and l cannot see that changing.:rolleyes:

Which is why you need to vote according to the fundamentals we do know and actually have decades of experience of. Sadly we can't rely on the numbers being presented but even if we could, there's more at risk by shackling ourselves to the EU and it's grand vision than trade, sovereignty being the most important IMHO.

Seriously, how much more experience of how the EU actually works does the UK need in order to make a judgement about whether it's a) in urgent need of major reform and b) willing/able to be reformed? The answer to those questions alone ought to be enough to base a decision on.

There was life before the EU and the more I see of it and where it's heading, the less I like it.

[techguyone]

Agreed. It was a foregone conclusion anything put forward would be exaggerated/made up/lied about, however we do know what it's been like in the EU until now, my vote was fixed before the campaign begun. I don't need anyone from either side to convince me of anything, I'm not stupid or dull of understanding, I based my vote on the last 30 years of living through it, not on some numpty cock and bull politico telling me scare stories or lies.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Codswallop! Pro EU garbage. I wasn't aware the EU contributed to the NHS. Just like the crap we'll all be four grand worse off by 2030 if we leave the EU. How do they know when all their other predictions have been wrong? We'll be in the black by 2015. WRONG! OK by 2017: WRONG! OK by the end of the Parliament: WRONG!! The economy will grow by 3.5% per year till 2020: Oops WRONG!!

How come every figure they come up with is wrong yet everything your side say is gospel, starting to think both sides in this are just full of ****

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

How come every figure they come up with is wrong yet everything your side say is gospel, starting to think both sides in this are just full of ****

Quite agree ,i think the government are behaving disgracefully in this the biggest decision in a generation for the UK people .They should be giving facts for both sides of the argument not campaigning for one side