[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

LSE claiming foreign investment will drop approx 1/5th on Brexit: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03v2.pdf as investors will longer be investing in an economy which has direct access to the single market.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Damien

LSE claiming foreign investment will drop approx 1/5th on Brexit: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03v2.pdf as investors will longer be investing in an economy which has direct access to the single market.

Investment will drop even though they are investing longer??

I take it you are in the "In Campain" hence misquoting.

Originally Posted by pip08456

Investment will drop even though they are investing longer??

I take it you are in the "In Campain" hence misquoting.

It's an accurate summary of the report: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/252ebfd4-0...#axzz45vYHc0kH

Although the LSE will join the Bank of England, IMF, CBI in being wrong I guess.

Watched Boris on the news this morning have to say he made a good point

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36057947

"I just find it absolutely bizarre that we are being lectured by the Americans about giving up our sovereignty and giving up control when Americans won't even sign up to the international convention on the law of the seas, let alone the International Criminal Court."

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

LSE claiming foreign investment will drop approx 1/5th on Brexit: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03v2.pdf as investors will longer be investing in an economy which has direct access to the single market.

What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.

---------- Post added at 08:24 ---------- Previous post was at 08:20 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

Watched Boris on the news this morning have to say he made a good point

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36057947

Have to agree with Boris. Someone should ask Obama when he's here if he is prepared to give up some American Sovereignty. Maybe some reporter will.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.

I don't believe the mortgage one although the logic is that the price of sterling will drop: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rge-osborne-eu

Remain are going to empathise the fear angle all campaign. They want to underline that it's a risk so when people go into the booth they'll be thinking 'well, it is a risk' and hope that will sway them. Polling suggests that if Brexit is perceived to be a danger then Remain will win. They can't let any suggestion that everything will be fine cut into their campaign.

[Bircho]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Although the ability for EU citizens can be difficult to cope with by itself, the bigger problem is what they are entitled to once they come over. Our rights to housing, NHS, benefits, etc were created on the basis of a known UK population level. Once you have millions more able to flood in and claim, the system doesn't work. You have the absurd situation where a Czech couple can come over with 22 of their children and grandchildren and all suddenly be eligible for housing, benefits, translators, etc. Bringing no capital with them to contribute, and all not working. When it was smaller numbers from countries like France and Germany and was more of a two way exchange of people, the system could cope. It may be an extreme example, but consider what would happen if the government of North Korea was to collapse. South Korea would be deluged with people.

Any EU directives have to be passed as UK laws, so saying that the EU was responsible for this that and the other is nonsense. The UK is able to pass most of those laws all by itself. Eg the UK started laws on paid holiday leave as far back as 1871.

Never have so many attempts to be factual be so wrong in so many understated ways. And all in two paragraphs.

No they are not entitled to any benefits. The effect of EU immigration on the UK is small compared to non EU immigration - and in or out of the EU that will not change.

Workers rights - I think you will find UK laws on paid holidays were introduced in the 1930s and it gave the right to SEVEN paid holidays per year. This was the case until the 1970s when it was amended to EIGHT. It was only the introduction of the EU social charter in the late 1990s (opposed by the UK Government at the time as explained on previous threads) that brought it up to TWENTY and then later increased to 28 by the Labour Government in late noughties. Fact is, without the EU social chapter, the Law would never have been introduced by any of this countries Governments.

---------- Post added at 09:03 ---------- Previous post was at 08:59 ----------

Originally Posted by Big Brian

What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.

As we we import more than we export, the potential lack of free trade will drive up the costs of both imports and exports which in turn will drive up inflation. To control this, interests rates will need to rise which means that mortgages and other borrowing costs will increase. Bit more complex than this but that is the simplistic version!

---------- Post added at 09:07 ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't believe the mortgage one although the logic is that the price of sterling will drop: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rge-osborne-eu

Remain are going to empathise the fear angle all campaign. They want to underline that it's a risk so when people go into the booth they'll be thinking 'well, it is a risk' and hope that will sway them. Polling suggests that if Brexit is perceived to be a danger then Remain will win. They can't let any suggestion that everything will be fine cut into their campaign.

And think there lies the crux of the out campaigns problem. They need show how things will be fine if we were to leave to convince the middle ground. I can see nothing to show that things will be fine - all I can see is a lot of upheaval and personally, I find it strange that people would be willing to take what is a pretty big risk. But please, convince me otherwise.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

What I don't understand is why mortgages will go up. Surely if things are going to be as gloomy as the Remain predict, Interest Rates will remain low to sustain the economy. I also can't see how on earth the building trade will be effected by a Brexit? Talk about desperation and use of Project Fear to its max! I also detect fear in the Remain Campaign that Brexit may actually win which is why they are resorting to these tactics.

---------- Post added at 08:24 ---------- Previous post was at 08:20 ----------



Have to agree with Boris. Someone should ask Obama when he's here if he is prepared to give up some American Sovereignty. Maybe some reporter will.

well obviously oz/- bomber and the lads from auf wiedersehen pet will be sent home .

[Mr K]

http://www.politico.eu/article/hug-a...keep-uk-in-eu/
A fantastic initiative for Europeans to hug a Brit and get their vote. A hug from a young female Swede would certainly confirm my remain vote

[Ignitionnet]

This should've been the leaflet's cover.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't believe the mortgage one although the logic is that the price of sterling will drop: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rge-osborne-eu

Remain are going to empathise the fear angle all campaign. They want to underline that it's a risk so when people go into the booth they'll be thinking 'well, it is a risk' and hope that will sway them. Polling suggests that if Brexit is perceived to be a danger then Remain will win. They can't let any suggestion that everything will be fine cut into their campaign.

I don't think anyone on the Leave side is suggesting everything will be fine. There are bound to be teething problems as with all new ventures. I'm under no illusions that things may be 'difficult' at first but the longer term prospects of a Brexit will make it worthwhile. We have austerity now so maybe a couple more years of it is what we will need to sustain the economy - a price worth paying in my opinion.

---------- Post added at 10:57 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Never have so many attempts to be factual be so wrong in so many understated ways. And all in two paragraphs.

No they are not entitled to any benefits. The effect of EU immigration on the UK is small compared to non EU immigration - and in or out of the EU that will not change.

I don't think it will be effected much either but the point is that we will control it, not the EU and the only way to get immigration down from both areas is to leave the EU.

---------- Post added at 11:02 ---------- Previous post was at 10:57 ----------

As we we import more than we export, the potential lack of free trade will drive up the costs of both imports and exports which in turn will drive up inflation. To control this, interests rates will need to rise which means that mortgages and other borrowing costs will increase. Bit more complex than this but that is the simplistic version!

Isn't the whole point of leaving the EU to reverse that? Sorry I don't agree with this costing more for the simple reason that the EU nations will want to trade still and will not make it that difficult. We would return to the way it worked before we joined the Common Market. We traded well enough with them then so why not now? I see shades of what happened when Scotland and England united here. The English Banned Scotland from trading with the Colonies so we went bankrupt and had no choice. Nah can't see the EU doing that really.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

This should've been the leaflet's cover.

Excellent

Vote NO

[Bircho]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Sorry I don't agree with this costing more for the simple reason that the EU nations will want to trade still and will not make it that difficult. We would return to the way it worked before we joined the Common Market. We traded well enough with them then so why not now? I see shades of what happened when Scotland and England united here. The English Banned Scotland from trading with the Colonies so we went bankrupt and had no choice. Nah can't see the EU doing that really.

But the whole point is there is no guarantee. The UK accounts for around 8% of the rest of the EUs exports, but the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. But we rely on the EU for 55% of our imports. They have the strong negotiating hand but if they say yes, ok, we'll let you have free trade but in return for free movement (ala Switzerland and Norway) then what's the point in coming out? It is all about immigration after all isn't it this vote? And if they say, ok, we'll trade but there will be tariffs (as per most of the rest of their trade agreements but there are also restrictions on what they can trade) then prices will be going up. Even a 4% tariff added to the currency slide and it will have a big effect on inflation and our ability to trade.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

As we we import more than we export, the potential lack of free trade will drive up the costs of both imports and exports which in turn will drive up inflation. To control this, interests rates will need to rise which means that mortgages and other borrowing costs will increase. Bit more complex than this but that is the simplistic version!

Various governments have been having currency wars for the past few years in an attempt to cheapen their exports.

It should be noted that we import more than we export with regards to the European Union only. We have a positive current account with the rest of the world. Upon leaving the EU we would no longer be subject to the Common Customs Tariff which would reduce the cost of imports from outside the EU.

With those in mind I'd suggest the impact of Brexit is not black and white. There are far too many variables.

I'm sure if I could be bothered it wouldn't be hard to find plenty of 'experts' forecasting the UK's doom if we failed to join the Euro. The past few years seem to have tarnished the reputation of economics as a field in no small part because most economists don't seem to know backside from elbow when exposed to how things work outside of the classroom.

[Taf]

The "evolution" of the European Experiment from trading partners to a near-federal superstate governing many aspects of our lives is what I wholly object to. Especially when unelected persons and bodies take more and more power to expand it further.

It's a political and bureaucratic wet dream, often unaccountable and uncontrolled.

As with many friends on the continent, I will vote "out" as soon as I get the chance.