SKY VS Virgin Media

[andygrif]

Originally Posted by Incognitas

Yes but 84% said they would stay.. How much is that in retained revenue?

That's not really a clever argument, not up to your usual standard at all

If we were talking about a couple of percent leaving Virgin, it wouldn't be so bad, but a potential 1/2 million subscribers dropping off the books in a short space of time could be very damaging for cashflow. Bear in mind that these people are not just subscibing to Sky's basic channels, they are possibly also subscibing to high value products like internet, phone, VOD and premium channels. Direct revenue sources for Virgin, that could potentially be taken out of the balance books within the next few weeks.

Originally Posted by c1rcle

Ok but how much is it costing them now to pay Sky for the channels? probably not that far off what they stand to lose if 15% decided the hassle of changing was worth a couple of sub-standard channels & they are sub-standard these days with the amount of repeats they show on Sky1.

But according to the poll on this thread, assuming it's roughly representative of the population, 15% of current VM subscribers have said that they would switch their supplier to Sky. This is not lost revenue to Sky, it is direct revenue at a higher margin than having them from Virgin. Also, it would be interesting to add another option to the poll, for people who would cancel Virgin but not subscribe to Sky - probably not a substantial contingent, but interesting none the less.

However, of course, Sky would lose the revenue from the 84% that Incog talked about earlier. However, for the basic channels, it likely to be a pretty small amount of money by comparison - someone guessed at £45m per year, but both parties keep the actual costs completely secret - when Sky would be picking up an additional £200m in direct sales a year from that 15%.

I probably haven't explained that too well, does it make sense?

[pedg]

Originally Posted by andygrif

But according to the poll on this thread, assuming it's roughly representative of the population, 15% of current VM subscribers have said that they would switch their supplier to Sky.

Actually I think the poll says nothing about if you are a VM subscriber and there is some evidence that non subscribers have voted. Maybe the poll should be run again, now that it is more of a certaintly that it will happen and that it be asked that only current VM subscribers vote.

[andygrif]

I take that on board, I haven't voted as I am not a Virgin subscriber.

However another poll on another forum, giving a 'not a subscriber' option produces some broadly similar results.

I'm by no means suggesting that this, or the other forum's poll, is representative (indeed I have kept mentioning that) - but it does give a rough barometer of mood, which could be fairly accurate.

Also, as I mentioned before, the poll has been open for a while now, and the percentage has been pretty static all the way along, and looking at the "I'm not changing" amd "I'm changing" posts on this forum, I'd say it's pretty a accurate guage of the feelings of Cable Forum users. Whether they are representative of the broader population, I cannot tell you.

In the absense of a Gallup poll asking the same questions, it's the best we've got right now.

[larry]

I would like to ask are we going to get it cheaper now sky are going to pack up there toys up and run off I can not get a Dish where I am and I watch the MOVIES SPORT AND SKY ONE so I would move if I was able get a dish if I was able to I pay over the want I can get sky for with cable. With five weeks it been NTL, NTL TELEWEST ,now VIRGIN MEDIA. In a few years we need new tv and new box to see tv so I like to know what mr VIRGIN MEDIA IS DOING WITH THE POEPLE WHO CAN NOT GO TO SKY WE HAVE TO MOVE HOUSE

[pedg]

Originally Posted by andygrif

I take that on board, I haven't voted as I am not a Virgin subscriber.

However another poll on another forum, giving a 'not a subscriber' option produces some broadly similar results.

I'm by no means suggesting that this, or the other forum's poll, is representative (indeed I have kept mentioning that) - but it does give a rough barometer of mood, which could be fairly accurate.

Also, as I mentioned before, the poll has been open for a while now, and the percentage has been pretty static all the way along, and looking at the "I'm not changing" amd "I'm changing" posts on this forum, I'd say it's pretty a accurate guage of the feelings of Cable Forum users. Whether they are representative of the broader population, I cannot tell you.

In the absense of a Gallup poll asking the same questions, it's the best we've got right now.

All online polls have to be taken with a dead seas worth of salt. One assumes that VM have commisioned a poll of current subscribers to get an accurate assessment of how many would move. Assuming they have then you have to assume that this showed a managable number would leave.

[andygrif]

I wouldn't assume they have.

[pedg]

Originally Posted by andygrif

I wouldn't assume they have.

Why not. It would take much to phone up a thousand random subscribers (not just those who are interested enough in the subject to post online) and ask them what they would do.

[buba3d]

ok i just got a phone call and i'm far from happy, they asked me if i was happy with my service and i said yes, they then asked me if i'd like to move and i said no, i'm happy where i am and i just want to know one thing, cs guy says ok, i said how the hell did you get my number, phone goes dead.............

That was a Sky Rep phoning me about my service

**** right off

itv news 10.30 is all about the war that's going on with sky and virgin.

[Foo Fighter]

i'd stick most people download straight from the US now so sky can shove there crappy channels which are manily adverts anyway!

torrent/usenet the future
no ads
faster than sky
watch when you want

sky cant compete with the net and if virgin invested money in to the ondemand stuff we'll be onto a winner

[Taf]

I wonder how long before the news filters down to people that have just subscribed to VM TV mainly because of the Sky products, as I was about to do.... and now there aren't any... will there be screams to get out of contracts?

[buba3d]

sky sports, sky movies or do these channels not exist?

[andygrif]

Originally Posted by pedg

Why not. It would take much to phone up a thousand random subscribers (not just those who are interested enough in the subject to post online) and ask them what they would do.

I think you're underestimating the inteligence and broadness of the people who use this site. But I do understand where you are coming from.

I am not saying that Virgin have called up a thousand subscribers to ask them, but I am saying that I would not assume that they have.

Even if they have, there will be a percentage of customers that will change their supplier if what has been suggested comes to pass; how many customers can Virgin afford to lose before cashflow is seriously compromised?

If 15% is 1/2 million subs and £21m per month income, then 10% is 1/3 million and £14m per month lost, 5% is 167,000 and £7m per month (£84m a year).

If the sums being banded around earlier of carraige fees of £45m pa for these channels are correct, then you can see the predicament that Virgin are in for yourself.

I'd hazard an educated guess that the 15% we see on here might not be too far off the money; taking into account the channels in question, viewing figures are as follows:

20% of digital homes watch Sky One at some point during an average week, 10% Sky Two, 10% Sky News and 15% for Sky Sports News. These stats include Freeview, where Sky One and Two don't appear of course.

So the average for these channels is not a million miles from the 15% on here. Could just be a coincidence, I'm no statistician.

[savvychels]

Originally Posted by larry

I would like to ask are we going to get it cheaper now sky are going to pack up there toys up and run off I can not get a Dish where I am and I watch the MOVIES SPORT AND SKY ONE so I would move if I was able get a dish if I was able to I pay over the want I can get sky for with cable. With five weeks it been NTL, NTL TELEWEST ,now VIRGIN MEDIA. In a few years we need new tv and new box to see tv so I like to know what mr VIRGIN MEDIA IS DOING WITH THE POEPLE WHO CAN NOT GO TO SKY WE HAVE TO MOVE HOUSE

As has been said Sky Movies and Sport are not going anywhere. It's Sky1, 2, News and Travel. Yes you're still losing one of the channels you watch, but not Movies and Sport as it looks like you're worrying about

[pedg]

Originally Posted by [LEFT

andygrif[/left];34230699]I think you're underestimating the

inteligence

and broadness of the people who use this site. But I do understand where you are coming from.

I am not saying that Virgin have called up a thousand subscribers to ask them, but I am saying that I would not assume that they have.

Even if they have, there will be a percentage of customers that will change their supplier if what has been suggested comes to pass; how many customers can Virgin afford to lose before

cashflow

is seriously compromised?

If 15% is 1/2 million subs and £21m per month income, then 10% is 1/3 million and £14m per month lost, 5% is 167,000 and £7m per month (£84m a year).

If the sums being banded around earlier of

carraige

fees of £45m pa for these channels are correct, then you can see the predicament that Virgin are in for yourself.

I'd hazard an educated guess that the 15% we see on here might not be too far off the money; taking into account the channels in question, viewing figures are as follows:

20% of digital homes watch Sky One at some point during an average week, 10% Sky Two, 10% Sky News and 15% for Sky Sports News. These stats include

Freeview

, where Sky One and Two don't appear of course.

So the average for these channels is not a million miles from the 15% on here. Could just be a coincidence, I'm no statistician.

But what you are implying is that 75% of people who watch sky one at some point in the week will feel its loss is enough for them to go through the hassle of changing to sky. Personally I would be surprised if, when push comes to shove, less than 10% moved. As things like the convenience of VOD kick in its not just a change to sky can only be positive as you get the sky channels back, you also lose the convenience of VOD. The experience in the states i believe is that VOD has tended to reduce the amount of churn of customers and from near daily use of VOD I would miss that more than I would miss sky one.

[krusty23]

I'll stay with Virgin Media for now, I can't think of much I'd miss on those Sky channels as all they mainly seem to have countless Simpsons, Stargate, Startrek and Futurama re-runs.
To be honest I can see myself canceling the TV package altogether and perhaps getting a freeview box. Most of whats on both cable AND satalite appears to be re-runs anyway at least I'm not paying for them with Freeview.