Eurozone will collapse...

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

And by dint or lucky hap we're on the sidelines. All those who enthused about joining the Euro should hold their heads in shame.

On the contrary, Michael Heseltine and Tony Blair have both stated within the last three months that they think the UK should join the Euro eventually. It beggars belief.

Originally Posted by Chris

Not very likely in this case. Any business that can see its profits fall by 60% and yet still walk away €2.1bn. in the black has got to be doing reasonably well, given the circumstances.

I think the worst is still to come in the Eurozone because the EZ governments and the ECB are determined to keep the patient on life support by chucking piles of cash at it, but sooner or later, maybe in one year, maybe in 3 or 5, the money will run out and they will then have to face up to the fact that EZ economic policy is making the problem worse and making recovery not just more difficult, but quite impossible. At that point it will royally hit the fan.

I don't think it will collapse. I think the main danger has passed now. 6 to 8 months ago was probably the time it was most at risk and some pundits seemed sure that it was about to collapse but that never materialized. Their presumption of the way the crisis would unfold never happened. Spain especially managed to avoid the collapse that, at one point, seemed days or weeks away. It's still possible it will collapse of course but it's harder, albeit not impossible, to see how now.

Spain's cost of borrowing dropped below 5% last month continuing the trend downwards from October. Italy also saw their borrowing come down to around 4%. France's cost is now about equal to ours! Ultimately the dominos did not topple.

I think the Eurozone know they're not out of the woods. Idiotic policy could scupper it still but they've spent the last couple of years with the Euro in a critical condition and now it's stable. They just have to take this chance to save it. It's not exactly on life support anymore. The Euro stands a much better chance of surviving than it did this time last year.

I could be wrong of course, I often am. Although that puts in the same tent as the economists predicting the Euro's demise last year.

Originally Posted by Sirius

Dam has it still not collapsed, "starts singing Why are we waiting"

You might be singing a longer song. Besides I never understood the glee at which people looked towards Europe cheering it's seeming demise.

---------- Post added at 20:08 ---------- Previous post was at 20:02 ----------

Originally Posted by mertle

With news recently USA contraction I can only see worlds economy head for another big shock.

The USA will be fine. The contraction was small and people seem confident it was a one off, certainly their other numbers are very good.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Damien

You might be singing a longer song. Besides I never understood the glee at which people looked towards Europe cheering it's seeming demise.

The sooner it collapses the better, then we might get back to what this country wanted in the first place a common market not a united states of europe run from berlin

[Osem]

The eurozone recession deepened in the final three months of 2012, official figures show.

The economy of the 17 nations in the euro shrank by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, which was worse than forecast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21455423

It is the sharpest contraction since the beginning of 2009 and marks the first time the region failed to grow in any quarter during a calendar year...

Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, saw the deepest contraction since the height of the financial crisis as its economy shrank 0.6%.

It was hit by a sharp decline in exports.

This is not good.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Osem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21455423



This is not good.

And its still not collapsed, the longer it hangs on the harder the rebuild will be.

[Osem]

Yes I reckon there's going to be a lot more bad news than good coming our way from the Eurozone to add to our own problems.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Osem

Yes I reckon there's going to be a lot more bad news than good coming our way from the Eurozone to add to our own problems.

What worries me the most is we will end one way or another paying for it financially. even thou we never signed up to this fiasco we will pay for it.

Originally Posted by Osem

Yes I reckon there's going to be a lot more bad news than good coming our way from the Eurozone to add to our own problems.

The Eurozone has had a pretty decent few months prior to this. Really since the summer the threat of a collapse has dwindled significantly and the scenario that could have seen a collapse, the domino effect, has also abated.

It could still go wrong of course, the Spainish economy would especially be tested if another crisis suddenly flared up from somewhere in Europe. That doesn't appear to be on the table for the moment however. Spain and Italy have been able to finance at cheaper rates since October or so and that trend increased last month (see an earlier post I made). Obviously there are still problems like there are here but don't think it's especially shocking that they saw a contraction or 'bad' in a sense that it changes the situation or narrative in the Eurozone.

We're still in for a tough time for a while but it does seem the worse is over. Unemployment is going down, banks are secure and money is moving, and the Eurozone have stepped back from the brink.

They have stepped back from the brink because the political cost of failure has been judged too high - so they will pay an economic and social cost instead. Youth unemployment in Greece is now greater than 61% ... that's scarcely imaginable. The inherent weakness of the Euro has been locked in and the zone faces years of terminal decline because of it.

Originally Posted by Chris

They have stepped back from the brink because the political cost of failure has been judged too high - so they will pay an economic and social cost instead. Youth unemployment in Greece is now greater than 61% ... that's scarcely imaginable. The inherent weakness of the Euro has been locked in and the zone faces years of terminal decline because of it.

I don't think they face years of terminal decline. Why would that have to be the case? They'll have to integrate the Eurozone closer but we all knew that would happen. Greece was also screwed before they stepped back from the blink and beside Greece could still be jettisoned from the zone without too much damage to the rest of it. Banks have pretty much written off any exposure to Greece already.

I think you misunderstand what has happened with Greece. They could have jettisoned it last year but did not; they could not bear the fact that this would prove the Euro was reversible. Greece is locked in for the sake of 'The Project' and the result is grinding poverty and unemployment.

The Eurozone faces unending decline because there is no politically acceptable way to stabilise it. A single currency needs a single fiscal policy. The Eurozone does not have one and is not going to get one any time soon. The sort of treaty change required will take years to thrash out and is likely to be a step too far for German taxpayers who will be told they have to endlessly write cheques to pay for the deficiencies of the southern 'Club Med' economies.

[Osem]

Italian voters declare opposition to austerity

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21591246

Meanwhile, in Brussels, the election outcome may further complicate relations between Rome and Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. Germany will no longer sign the cheques if it cannot show its electorate that Italy is toeing the fiscal line.

I don't think the Germans will be very happy...

Italy struggles with 'nightmare' election result

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21586340

But this election will always be remembered for the stunning performance of the new citizens' protest network - the Five Star Movement.

Led by its guiding star, the comedian-turned politician Beppe Grillo, it was born and bred on the internet...

... It won a quarter of the vote. It has become the largest single faction in parliament and a major political force in this country.

Hmm another comedian running Europe...

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Osem

Hmm another comedian running Europe...

The last thing that's needed, we've got enough jokers running our own country, trouble is it wore thin long ago and the jokes on us

[mertle]

I have been reading this article its scary how can worlds minds be so panick stricken.
An empirical nail for the austerity coffin

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...rc=sph&src=rot



Not sure it deserved new thread but its the economic analysis and of whether Austerity was is ever possible to work.


The data dont add up good reading infact the mess was increased by markets/governments panic button it seems.


We slowly seeing many economic influential people saying its a suicide move. What options are left to turn things around. Seems only solution is go into hyperdrive for a War(do we really want that route).


Also some seriously worrying comments further down that indicators suggest another crash storm coming. Second mega shock to the economy.



We already probably seemingly slipping with us our manufacturing figures down it seems for UK.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-dip-recession


We certainly had spook today in the markets after currency had recovered over yesterday.


We now had run on our currency this snapshot what is present. Yep its not looking nice although not flood like slow trickle. Euro actually holding pretty well. The big winners USA as there economy recoverying well.

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[Osem]

Plans to rescue near-bankrupt Cyprus are due to be presented to eurozone finance ministers later on Friday.

The bailout proposals are likely to contain a mixture of tax rises, one-off revenue-raising measures and plans to overhaul the island's banking sector.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21797888