Russia has invaded Ukraine

[pip08456]

Special operation.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

You can’t negotiate in good faith with outright liars who deny lying - Comical Ali has nothing on these guys.

Well in that case, the deaths will continue until Russia wins, and I don't see anything but a prolonged campaign and an eventual Russian victory if a negotiated peace is not reached.

It will cost Russia dearly, but it will not back down.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60685883

You can’t negotiate in good faith with outright liars who deny lying - Comical Ali has nothing on these guys.

Indeed.

From what I've read, Ukraine's negotiators have a directly line into Zelenskyy but the Russian negotiators don't have one into Putin. So when the Russians say we want Ukraine to be neutral, the Ukranians go, fine, let's come up with a form of words and the Russians don't have an answer as they're not really negotiating.

---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well in that case, the deaths will continue until Russia wins, and I don't see anything but a prolonged campaign and an eventual Russian victory if a negotiated peace is not reached.

It will cost Russia dearly, but it will not back down.

Is it a given that Russia will be successful? I thought this was a given at first but now I'm less sure.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Unless, Ukraine (and by further extension the West) demand nothing but full/total and complete surrender of Russia, then it will be a negotiated peace, and in a negotiation anything can be on the table.



I was just responding to a very stupid point of thinking with a marvellously witty retort.

So that could include Hungary, (as was)East Germany, Czech Republic, etc.?

As part of my training as a Intelligence Analyst (specifically focusing on the USSR and GSFG), we weren’t just taught about Military equipment and structures, we also learned about Russia/Soviet psychology and how they react to external factors and pressures - the way Putin is acting now is a throwback to Hungary and Czechoslovakia; a show of strength, to see how far we can be pushed.

He’s already stated he sees the supply of arms to Ukraine as tantamount to an act of war.

You can’t negotiate in good faith with proven liars - they just see it as weakness; we need to wear Russia down by the tactics we are doing now, but make it clear any attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries, under Article 5. We are already preparing for this, as reported recently in the NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/w...ne-russia.html

But NATO has also moved to sharply reinforce its deterrence in member states on its eastern flank, to ensure that Russia does not test NATO’s commitment to collective defense.

The United States alone has deployed 15,000 extra troops to Europe — 5,000 to Poland, 1,000 to Romania and 1,000 to the Baltic States — while committing another 12,000 troops, if necessary, to NATO’s Response Force, being used in collective defense for the first time.

Washington has also deployed more fighter jets and attack helicopters to Romania, Poland and the Baltic States.

In other examples of the rapid NATO effort to beef up its eastern borders, France sent its first tranche of troops to Romania on Monday, to lead a new NATO battalion there, and provided Rafale fighter jets to Poland.

Germany, which already is lead nation of a NATO battalion in Lithuania, has sent another 350 troops and howitzers there, six fighter jets to Romania, some troops to Slovakia and two more ships to NATO’s maritime patrols. Berlin also said it would send a Patriot missile battery and 300 troops to operate it to NATO’s eastern flank, but did not specify where.

Britain, the lead nation of the NATO battalion in Estonia, has sent another 850 soldiers and more Challenger tanks there, plus 350 more troops to Poland. It has also put another 1,000 on standby to help with refugees, and sent another four fighter jets to Cyprus, while sending two ships to the eastern Mediterranean.

Canada has sent some 1,200 soldiers, artillery and electronic warfare units to Latvia, as well as another frigate and reconnaissance aircraft, while putting 3,400 troops on standby for the Response Force.

Italy sent eight fighter jets to Romania and put 3,400 troops on standby, while the Dutch have sent 100 troops to Lithuania and 125 to Romania, and assigned eight fighter jets to NATO duties.

Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and will send 200 soldiers and deploy four fighter jets to Lithuania and some to Poland to support of NATO’s air-policing mission, while Spain has sent four fighter jets to Bulgaria and ships for maritime patrols.

This is hardly a complete listing, but gives an indication of the seriousness with which NATO is taking the threat of further Russian aggression or of a spillover of the war into NATO territory.

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 11:02 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well in that case, the deaths will continue until Russia wins, and I don't see anything but a prolonged campaign and an eventual Russian victory if a negotiated peace is not reached.

It will cost Russia dearly, but it will not back down.

Thats where we differ - I believe internal pressure due to sanctions, shortages, civil unrest, and the continuing lack of progress in Ukraine, along with the escalating losses in Russian personnel and material, will lead to a change in approach, perhaps leadership.

U.K. imposes sanctions on 7 Russian oligarchs, including Abramovich, Sechin & Miller.

Andrey Kostin, the chairman of VTB Bank, Nikolai Tokarev, the president of Transneft, Dmitri Lebedev, the chairman of Bank Rossiya & industrial tycoon Oleg Deripaska, were also sanctioned. - Kyiv Independent

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Is it a given that Russia will be successful? I thought this was a given at first but now I'm less sure.

I can only offer opinions, I'm not forensically following the campaign.

But I don't see how Russia loses. They haven't committed all of their resources. I think it will get a lot nastier if it isn't resolved soon.

[Carth]

Well it looks as though it's ready to kick off doesn't it.

All those NATO troops and equipment being moved into the area . . . one wonders how the Russian media will explain that to the masses


*cough* American aggressors and their allies threaten Russian borders *cough*

Now it just needs one gung-ho 'God is on our side' American nut job to start the ball rolling

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So that could include Hungary, (as was)East Germany, Czech Republic, etc.?

Certainly not Germany. As it's in NATO. I also think any other nation is not on the menu as this stage.

But a corridor through NATO to a estranged Russian province, yes I could see that.

but make it clear any attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries, under Article 5.

I think he's well aware of that, he won't attack NATO for the very reason NATO won't directly engage with Russia.

Thats where we differ - I believe internal pressure due to sanctions, shortages, civil unrest, and the continuing lack of progress in Ukraine, along with the escalating losses in Russian personnel and material, will lead to a change in approach, perhaps leadership.

Yep, that is where we differ. I believe his grip on Russia is still cast iron. I don't see him going anywhere or being offed by anyone, and if anyone does go after him, they'd better not mess!

Originally Posted by Pierre

Certainly not Germany. As it's in NATO. I also think any other nation is not on the menu as this stage.

But a corridor through NATO to a estranged Russian province, yes I could see that.



I think he's well aware of that, he won't attack NATO for the very reason NATO won't directly engage with Russia.


Yep, that is where we differ. I believe his grip on Russia is still cast iron. I don't see him going anywhere or being offed by anyone, and if anyone does go after him, they'd better not mess!

Those two statements contradict each other, unless you think that the Russians currently aren't attacking Ukraine - you're not Lavrov, are you?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Those two statements contradict each other, unless you think that the Russians currently aren't attacking Ukraine - you're not Lavrov, are you?

No, they don't if there's a peace negotiation to be had and NATO are involved in that negotiation.

Originally Posted by Pierre

No, they don't if there's a peace negotiation to be had and NATO are involved in that negotiation.

Can’t see two NATO countries giving up land - let’s agree to differ…

More sanctions against Russia, this time from China.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ns-2022-03-10/

March 10 (Reuters) - China has refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts, an official at Russia's aviation authority was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Thursday, after Boeing (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA) halted supply of components.

Russia's aviation sector is being squeezed by Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia's foreign ministry warning this week that the safety of Russian passenger flights was under threat.

Agencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Can’t see two NATO countries giving up land - let’s agree to differ…

I can't see Lithuania agreeing. It would trap that country along with Latvia and Estonia behind what's potentially a new iron curtain.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Certainly not Germany. As it's in NATO. I also think any other nation is not on the menu as this stage.

But a corridor through NATO to a estranged Russian province, yes I could see that.



I think he's well aware of that, he won't attack NATO for the very reason NATO won't directly engage with Russia.


Yep, that is where we differ. I believe his grip on Russia is still cast iron. I don't see him going anywhere or being offed by anyone, and if anyone does go after him, they'd better not mess!

Thats a scary caveat…

Does that mean you think it.might happen later on?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Thats a scary caveat…

Does that mean you think it.might happen later on?

I think, taking and keeping Ukraine, will deplete Russia enough (along with the sancations) that they will take quite a long time time to re-group, possibly decades. So, I think only Ukraine will be taken in this campaign, and that may well be enough for Putin, for his Presidency. It's who comes after him and what ideas they have and in what kind of shape Russia is in, that will be the next concern. Remember Putin is 70, and although 70 is not ancient if it take 10years for Russia to recover he'll be 80 if he makes it........

I think this campaign and annexing Ukraine, will be Putins legacy.