[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Government officials 'hid stats proving there are a MILLION extra EU migrants in Britain'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/651...er-david-davis

Very interesting indeed. If this is not a reason to vote leave then there is no hope for us. So in essence there are probably more than the Government's official unemployment figures. My apologies.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

The European Union as a block would be the biggest. Germany is the 4th biggest economy in the world on it's own. France is sixth. The idea we would 'call the shots' with the EU is unrealistic.

Not so unrealistic when they sell far more to us than we do to them.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Ty for the worm welcome everyone.

Indeed you are correct. We have the advantage that we already trade with the EU. We export 3 times as much to them as they do to us and do people really believe that the EU would completely turn their backs on the UK? I can't see it happening. The reason we export 3 times more than they do to us is we have what they need. Even if that was cut to 30% it would still be a good deal - it's currently around 45% we export to the EU.

In our case, we would be renegotiating our trade agreement not trying to get one with the EU. They are not going to cut off their collective noses to spite their faces.

Other issues like the scaremonger story that the Jungle would move from Calais to Dover is nonsense. That agreement France and the UK have is nothing to do with the EU, it's a private agreement between us and they have already said that agreement still holds if we leave despite what Allonde and Cameron say.

Defence: Does anyone really believe that if we left the EU and the Russians decided to attack us that the USA would allow it? This is another scare story going round from the IN Campaign.

Jobs: Another scare story is that the UK would lose tens of thousands of jobs if we vote to leave the EU. Over the past few weeks all I've seen is the opposite. HSBC decided not to relocate knowing that a Brexit is possible. Amazon are creating a thousand jobs in the Manchester area with plans for more jobs knowing that a Brexit is possible. Where do they get this from?. Sure some firms may relocate but I don't think they will take the jobs with them. As in the case of the threats in the Scottish referendum, it would be the HQ relocating. It will be a safety net in case things go belly up.

Not quite 3 times the value of exports to the EU vs imports...

In 2014, the UK exported £230 billion of goods and services to other EU member states. This is equivalent to 44.8% of total UK exports. Goods and services imports from the EU were worth £289 billion (52.8% of the total) in 2014. The UK had a trade deficit of £59 billion with the EU in 2014 but a surplus of £24 billion with non-EU countries.

http://researchbriefings.files.parli...91/SN06091.pdf Page 4

[Big Brian]

Why we should leave the EU


1. Reintroduce Full Powers Back to Westminster


2. EU is a Drain on British Economy


3. The EU is undemocratic and unaccountable. Unelected bureaucrats making laws we have to abide by.


4. We need to co-operate against global crime and terror with the world not just the EU.


5. The representatives that we elect should not be able to give the UK away. More and more powers are being given to Brussels.


6. We are not European, I am British, I am entitled to a vote on this.


7. Immigration: The right to control our own policies.


8. Free trade still likely with EFTA, EEC or individual treaties.


9. Hypocrisy towards other EU states. It's no secret what we really think of them and they of us.


10. British taxpayers are forced to bail out other European countries rather than receive goods and services thought not as much as others do.


11. TRADE: The ability to form our own Trade agreements.


12. No chance of changing from the Pound to the Euro. If we stay it makes the possibility of joining the Euro, Chengen and closer integration more likely.


13. Jobs being given to British people if they are the best candidate and not given on a quota system.


14. We don't want a United States of Europe


15. Economical and political ties. It is better we control our own economical and political destiny.

[Osem]

What proportion of those exports to the EU went to Rotterdam and then elsewhere in the world as opposed to actual customers in the EU?

My reasons for leaving the EU have nothing to do with Europe, they have to do with the flawed, bloated, out of touch bureaucracy which runs the EU and has time and time again proved itself to be either inept, duplicitous or even corrupt. Given the fine mess they've created in Europe, I'm wondering just why anyone would vote for more of the same. When people finally woke up to the mess Labour had made of the UK during their tenure in office they were able to vote them out. They're still out now and thankfully not looking much like making a comeback any time soon. Not so within Eurolalaland where the same faceless suits repeat the same old mistakes year in year out and nobody can do anything about it..

Make no mistake a vote to remain is a vote for more of the same and probably worse since the mere fact that we had the temerity to seek a referendum will be used as a stick to beat us with for years to come.

We have to get out of this mess and I have no doubt that if we do, others will soon follow.

Ah yes, the Rotterdam effect.

IIRC someone estimated it inflated the EU export figure by around 10 percentage points. Must see if I can dig out a linky.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ah yes, the Rotterdam effect.

IIRC someone estimated it inflated the EU export figure by around 10 percentage points. Must see if I can dig out a linky.

Don't be surprised if all the pro EU sources of that sort of information are down for routine maintenance until July...

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Osem

What proportion of those exports to the EU went to Rotterdam and then elsewhere in the world as opposed to actual customers in the EU?

My reasons for leaving the EU have nothing to do with Europe, they have to do with the flawed, bloated, out of touch bureaucracy which runs the EU and has time and time again proved itself to be either inept, duplicitous or even corrupt. Given the fine mess they've created in Europe, I'm wondering just why anyone would vote for more of the same. When people finally woke up to the mess Labour had made of the UK during their tenure in office they were able to vote them out. They're still out now and thankfully not looking much like making a comeback any time soon. Not so within Eurolalaland where the same faceless suits repeat the same old mistakes year in year out and nobody can do anything about it..

Make no mistake a vote to remain is a vote for more of the same and probably worse since the mere fact that we had the temerity to seek a referendum will be used as a stick to beat us with for years to come.

We have to get out of this mess and I have no doubt that if we do, others will soon follow.

I couldn't agree more with you. My reasons are many fold and we all have our own. You are correct. I believe staying will mean more of the same, if not worse. There is a school of thought that says the referendum may not be totally legal. If this is true, who are they to tell us what's legal and what's not in our own country. Yet another reason to get out.

Rotterdam I don't know much about, I'd have to research that one.

You may also want to take a look at this. I've been saying I can't see how this so called agreement can be legally binding and found this in my research:

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85917 IN Voters take note of this too.

Originally Posted by Osem

Don't be surprised if all the pro EU sources of that sort of information are down for routine maintenance until July...

Originally Posted by Chris

Ah yes, the Rotterdam effect.

IIRC someone estimated it inflated the EU export figure by around 10 percentage points. Must see if I can dig out a linky.

There is a article here about trade: https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-...rts-go-europe/

It's not unique to Rotterdam, other ports would have the same effect. It does inflate the trade into the EU but it actually could also effect imports from the EU as well:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.g...m-effect-.html

[techguyone]

I know the Govt is really dragging its heels over showing how many 'Active Nat Insurance numbers it's given out, which is a disturbing lack of transparency. Especially as the numbers may not match the official 'people - in' figure...

For me the big issue will be that the whole campaign will be like this, with lies or porkies at least told, misinformation & fear.

We're not on a level playing field and its bs

Originally Posted by Damien

There is a article here about trade: https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-...rts-go-europe/

It's not unique to Rotterdam, other ports would have the same effect. It does inflate the trade into the EU but it actually could also effect imports from the EU as well:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.g...m-effect-.html

The giveaway is that if you take the stats at face value, the Netherlands is our third-largest trading partner, which is obvious bollards when you think about it.

The problem is, while it is obvious not everything we send in to Europort is destined for Dutch consumption, it's impossible to put a figure on how big the distortion is, because some of what we send there is indeed intended for the Netherlands, and some of it is for elsewhere in the EU, which means is is legitimate to include it in an overall figure for our exports to the EU.

If you exclude the Netherlands altogether, the percentage of our exports supposedly bound for the EU drops by 10 points. If you assume half of it is genuinely EU bound, then you knock 5 points off the total. We don't know precisely what the effect is, but given the supposed size of our exports to a nation of 16 million, we can say for sure that it does exist.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Chris

The giveaway is that if you take the stats at face value, the Netherlands is our third-largest trading partner, which is obvious bollards when you think about it.

The problem is, while it is obvious not everything we send in to Europort is destined for Dutch consumption, it's impossible to put a figure on how big the distortion is, because some of what we send there is indeed intended for the Netherlands, and some of it is for elsewhere in the EU, which means is is legitimate to include it in an overall figure for our exports to the EU.

If you exclude the Netherlands altogether, the percentage of our exports supposedly bound for the EU drops by 10 points. If you assume half of it is genuinely EU bound, then you knock 5 points off the total. We don't know precisely what the effect is, but given the supposed size of our exports to a nation of 16 million, we can say for sure that it does exist.

Very interesting. Never looked at it that way. Amazing what you can do with stats to get the answer you want and that's what our Governments have been doing.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I know the Govt is really dragging its heels over showing how many 'Active Nat Insurance numbers it's given out, which is a disturbing lack of transparency. Especially as the numbers may not match the official 'people - in' figure...

For me the big issue will be that the whole campaign will be like this, with lies or porkies at least told, misinformation & fear.

We're not on a level playing field and its bs

if there's so much to hide then its time to get out .

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Government officials 'hid stats proving there are a MILLION extra EU migrants in Britain'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/651...er-david-davis

More here

The Office for National Statistics has announced an official review of migration figures amid concerns that more than a million migrants have come to Britain than figures suggest.

According to official figures 1million EU migrants came to Britain over the past five years, but over that same period 2.25million registered for national insurance numbers.

[Sirius]

I so wish we could get this over with and i can vote NO.