Post-Brexit Thread

[Sherlock614]

Originally Posted by Damien

IIRC there isn't a large amount of benefit money going to EU migrants. The vast majority come because they can earn a lot more here than they do at home.

A guy lives down the road, doesn't work and looks after his Dad full time. He has been here 6 years and drives a 16 plate Passat.

I pass him most days on my way to work...

There's lots like him here and it overwhelmingly influenced my vote.

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Both sides have yet to get into the real detail but the wording from the EU was interesting in that they "would fight" to not allow the uk to trade without free movement, they are in the position to insist on it but are not using that wording. There is more going on behind the scenes right now that nobody except those involved know about and until we get a pm with a spine and invoke article 50 uncertainty will continue and I think that's what is behind David Cameron's behaviour since the referendum.

We really shouldn't invoke Article 50 until we're ready to do so. This has been requested by the civil service, who don't have the expertise on trade deals in place, and the Leave campaign. If Cameron left now and just appointed Boris via some undemocratic loophole then it still wouldn't be activated because Boris himself has said we should wait.

You don't set a timer and enter talks until you know what you are asking for and how best to achieve it. The Government know actually needs to do the work, the thinking, the planning for this complicated process.

This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Damien

This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.

Really? That's Nigel Farage's strategy stuffed.

Something else on free movement, even less equivocal than the official statement.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEX-16-2357_en.htm

In his press conference with President Tusk after today's meeting of Heads of State or Government of the EU-27, President Juncker said: "There will be no negotiations of any kind before the British notification about a possible exit reaches us. No negotiation without notification." He said that there was agreement that there would be no internal market à la carte: "Those who have access have to implement all our freedoms without exceptions and nuances."

Disregard it was on the BBC news app attributed to Angela Merkel but it's gone so not sure what happened.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Seems unlikely.

http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=457
http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=849

I'm suggesting that we do away with the EU rules malarkey. We set the rules. They can have their cherished free movement but we get to decide what benefits (if any) people coming here get. That means that someone who can work as a doctor or in IT and earn a decent wage to support themselves is welcome but someone who wants tocome here without many skills, only earning enough to get top up benefits and qualify for council housing would no longer qualify for hand outs and housing.
We don't discriminate over who comes here, we simply make it uneconomic for low skilled people to bother.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Really? That's Nigel Farage's strategy stuffed.

Something else on free movement, even less equivocal than the official statement.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEX-16-2357_en.htm

Dont' worry. If we just keep calm, the EU will see reason and give us the trade deal we want without free movement We're Great Britain after all, they'll see the error of their ways ..

[techguyone]

Originally Posted by Damien

We really shouldn't invoke Article 50 until we're ready to do so. This has been requested by the civil service, who don't have the expertise on trade deals in place, and the Leave campaign. If Cameron left now and just appointed Boris via some undemocratic loophole then it still wouldn't be activated because Boris himself has said we should wait.

You don't set a timer and enter talks until you know what you are asking for and how best to achieve it. The Government know actually needs to do the work, the thinking, the planning for this complicated process.

This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.

I'd agree but... given that there is a fairly significant degree of uncertainty that as more time passes, pressing the button seems more unlikely, then maybe it is in our interests to at least hit the button now - while we can.

[Ramrod]

Britain’s FTSE 100 Recovers All Losses From Brexit

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

I'm suggesting that we do away with the EU rules malarkey. We set the rules. They can have their cherished free movement but we get to decide what benefits (if any) people coming here get. That means that someone who can work as a doctor or in IT and earn a decent wage to support themselves is welcome but someone who wants tocome here without many skills, only earning enough to get top up benefits and qualify for council housing would no longer qualify for hand outs and housing.
We don't discriminate over who comes here, we simply make it uneconomic for low skilled people to bother.

Except that doesn't meet their definition of free movement and per the above every indication so far is that they will not deviate from this. You can't agree something with someone then change the definition of it to suit your own needs.

If we want restrictions we will likely in turn see restrictions in access to the Single Market. Chances are those restrictions would be on services, and the simplest way is financial services.

We have the biggest Euro foreign exchange. We won't even be in the European Union but want to remain the biggest trader of their currency.

It's really not a great stretch to see the scenario I mentioned earlier where France tie us in knots and we watch 12%, possibly more, of our tax base disappear to save £600m a year in tax credits.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:43 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

Dont' worry. If we just keep calm, the EU will see reason and give us the trade deal we want without free movement We're Great Britain after all, they'll see the error of their ways ..

Rule Brittania! Brittania waives the rules.

"This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.". No really omg how deluded I've been and you think the civil service weren't preparing for all eventualities there will be plans made and they will be waiting for a politician to choose which one they want to proceed with. Also it's rarely our politicians that deal with the international negotiations it's the diplomatic staff politicians make an appearance at the begining and the end and take the credit.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

"This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.". No really omg how deluded I've been and you think the civil service weren't preparing for all eventualities there will be plans made and they will be waiting for a politician to choose which one they want to proceed with. Also it's rarely our politicians that deal with the international negotiations it's the diplomatic staff politicians make an appearance at the begining and the end and take the credit.

The civil service weren't prepared for the result. You can find references to this all over the Internet so I'm not even going to start copy/pasting.

Preparations started Friday.

EDIT: Actually here's one reference - this is about as boring as it comes - https://www.civilserviceworld.com/ar...gency-planning

Although the Treasury has worked with the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority to extensively plan for the immediate economic impact of a Brexit vote, Downing Street on Monday reiterated that the civil service had not done separate contingency work for the wider process of withdrawal – something the new team will now lead on.

"Now we can start the work to put the UK in the best possible position for those negotiations on Britain's future relationship with the EU," she added.

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Britain’s FTSE 100 Recovers All Losses From Brexit

I did although the caveat to that is the drop in Sterling. FTSE 250 is down 7.7% I think but the bleeding as stopped. Sterling hasn't dropped since Monday.

Politicians weren't prepared I haven't found anything specifically stating that no plans were drawn up by the civil service or the diplomats but if you've got some I would appreciate them as my googling is not brilliant at the minute.

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

"This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.". No really omg how deluded I've been

Well you keep saying a PM needs to get a spine and issue article 50 despite all the advice not to do so. I am not sure how you imagine that would go.

We have two years to negotiate if we can't achieve an acceptable deal in that time we're screwed anyway.