[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[heero_yuy]

I think we've all rumbled the dodgy dossier rouse.

[Mr K]

I see farmers are right old tiz on whether to vote out or not. Traditionally right wing whingers who moan about Europe, they're now having second thoughts when it comes to it. Loss of their major trading partner and loss of subsidies, suddenly it doesn't sound so good to them...

http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/nfu-to-tak...-in-europe.htm

I think this will be a pattern when it comes closer to polling day. People who wanted out, wake up to the realities and how it will personally affect them.

The Silicon Roundabout/Tech startup scene is mostly for staying: http://techcrunch.com/2016/02/24/sho...r-should-i-go/

It's an industry that is especially 'European' in London and one which would need to be able to recruit from across Europe irrespective of the result of the referendum.

How will quickly will they be able to hire EU citizens?

How easy can EU citizens setup companies in London?

What happens to Fintech startups (like this one founded by EU, not British, citizens) which benefit from the open market in services across the EU?

[heero_yuy]

THE grip of unelected Euro judges over Britain was laid bare last night as research revealed the UK has lost 101 of 131 cases at the European Court of Justice.

The hated Luxembourg-based court overrules us 77 per cent of the time and has been even more resistant in recent years – with David Cameron losing 16 out of 20 cases.

Judges at the ECJ rule on European laws to ensure they are enforced equally across all 28 member states.

But the research by Brexit campaign group Vote Leave found rulings since 1973 have forced us to put up the price of beer, prolonged a ban on British beef, and slapped higher taxes on energy-saving products.

The scale of British defeats raised fears the ECJ will overrule the changes to Britain’s relationship with Brussels negotiated by David Cameron if the UK votes to remain - despite claims they are “legally binding”.

Linky

[Gavin78]

There is that much scare mongering that I have no doubt like most the whole fear factor of the gov and all the blockages they are putting on the leave campaign that we will still be in the EU at the end of all this....getting shafted even more than we do now for even having the attitude to stand against the EU and causing all this disruption.

Still I will vote NO regardless then sit back back while the UK gets put in the naughty corner

[Gary L]

It would be good if the other EU countries could have a vote too.

and they kick us out anyway.
they've had enough of us and this idiot.

Head Shoulders Knees and Toes they were singing.

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[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Gary L

It would be good if the other EU countries could have a vote too.

and they kick us out anyway.
they've had enough of us and this idiot.

Head Shoulders Knees and Toes they were singing.

but does Dave which are which since he doesn't know his backside from his elbow? What had the poor sods at the Day Centre done to deserve that?

[Osem]

More dire warnings I see - the French will roll out the red carpet for out banks, they'll end the bilateral borders agreement in Calais etc. I'm beginning to think that after decades of arguments and whining about what a pain the UK is they don't want us to leave. It's great to learn that they really do have our welfare at heart...

Seriously, these are the people we're dealing with. They rather like having their cake and eating it. They like telling the UK what to do and resent the fact that we might be fed up with it. When they start talking about their collective efforts being directed at unwinding existing agreements are they really saying they'll be delighted to stop selling all those nice 'Europroducts' to us by way of punishment? They'd evidently rather try to punish us (and hence the EU) than get on with making the best of the possibilities for new arrangements to be put in place which would be mutually beneficial. It's what happens during an acrimonious divorce in which only the lawyers do well. Anyway, whichever way you look at that it's irrational and surely that underlying mindset is the best possible reason to get out. If there was an iota of doubt in my mind that's now gone, not on the basis that I believe everything will be great outside the EU but the certainty that the EU is like an unhinged spouse and divorce is the only answer.

The border arrangements between the UK and France are a bilateral agreement. Nothing to do with the EU at all.

And if France is such a great place for financial services, why aren't they all there already? The Eurozone's financial centre is supposed to be Frankfurt anyway, so in the unlikely event of them all decamping and moving to the continent, I doubt very much whether they're going to set up shop in sclerotic, over-regulated Paris.

I don't know why you don't think they wouldn't try and take advantage of the situation and try to attempt over industries into their countries. The EU are clearly scaremongering to an extent but equally the Brexit camp are really underselling the consequences too. They won't be able to meet their promises of these wonderful free trade agreements on our own terms.

The only good thing is that if we do vote to leave then it will likely be the Brexiters taking hold of the Tory party and therefore tasking with delivering this vision of Utopian, free-wheeling, Britain.

---------- Post added at 09:00 ---------- Previous post was at 08:54 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

And if France is such a great place for financial services, why aren't they all there already? The Eurozone's financial centre is supposed to be Frankfurt anyway, so in the unlikely event of them all decamping and moving to the continent, I doubt very much whether they're going to set up shop in sclerotic, over-regulated Paris.

Because they don't need to be there.

https://next.ft.com/content/e90885d8...b-8564e7528e54

But it is relatively straightforward to identify industry sector that have prospered at least in part because of access to the EU single market. The City has built on its traditional strength in foreign currency trading to become the biggest centre for trading the euro. Global investment banks have in tandem boosted their operations in London. Insurance, another longstanding speciality, has also thrived, with many insurers using London as their base for the EU as a whole. New markets have opened up: the UK manages €1tn of net assets in cross-border funds, or Ucits — double the figure of five or six years ago.

The single market lets us sell and trade across the EU without any hassle. If it becomes easier for them to do this in Frankfurt then part, not all, of the these business will go there.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Damien

The only good thing is that if we do vote to leave then it will likely be the Brexiters taking hold of the Tory party and therefore tasking with delivering this vision of Utopian, free-wheeling, Britain.

Of course in that event Cameron will be a lame duck and will have to get the chop. Every cloud has a silver lining.

As the world's 5th largest economy there are very few countries that could afford not to trade with us. Least of all France.

There's another thing to throw into the equation: We and the US set which air corridor a carrier can use over the Atlantic, some are much more economical than others. Just saying...

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Of course in that event Cameron will be a lame duck and will have to get the chop. Every cloud has a silver lining.

Cameron will almost certainly go.

As the world's 5th largest economy there are very few countries that could afford not to trade with us. Least of all France.

It's the terms of how they trade with us is the issue. Trade agreements are not just the agreement to drop tariffs and they do not have to apply to all trade between the countries. For example the Canada-EU trade deal doesn't cover financial services.

[techguyone]

Cameron is already going, he doesn't give a toss and has nothing to lose. He's stated many times he will not be PM for a 3rd term.

[Kymmy]

A hypothetical question.

If Trump won the US Presidency would you rather be in or out of Europe based on that single fact? In other words would you like to try to negotiate trade agreements with a US run by him?

The MiL came up with a Trump win and us leaving the EU so that got me thinking about after leaving negotiations.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Chris

The border arrangements between the UK and France are a bilateral agreement. Nothing to do with the EU at all.

And if France is such a great place for financial services, why aren't they all there already? The Eurozone's financial centre is supposed to be Frankfurt anyway, so in the unlikely event of them all decamping and moving to the continent, I doubt very much whether they're going to set up shop in sclerotic, over-regulated Paris.

Yes they are and the fact that the French would use that agreement as an additional bargaining chip in a debate about the EU says it all really.