17-03-2020, 16:42
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#706
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,244
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
I insist on hugging everyone I see in a pub so you see the possible problem.
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Quote:
“Don't just embrace the crazy, sidle up next to it and lick its ear.”
- Jim Wright
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__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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17-03-2020, 16:53
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#707
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Perfect Soldier
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Worthing West Sussex
Age: 67
Services: VM 500M SH3 thingy
in modem mode
XL TV V6 Sony Bravia smart TV and M phone
Posts: 11,018
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Re: Coronavirus
Well I went to the local for my normal pint or two and there were the usual regulars. People still going into the restaurant section for food.
__________________
History is much like an endless waltz: The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.
However history will change with my coronation - Mariemaia Khushrenada
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17-03-2020, 17:18
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#708
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,167
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
I am going to find some remote cottage in the Highlands and camp out there until this all blows over.
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I know just the place to stay, you might get breakfast delivered in a hamper and access to Freesat
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17-03-2020, 19:31
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#709
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,244
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Re: Coronavirus
A little light relief.
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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17-03-2020, 19:33
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#710
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,082
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
UK coronavirus cases reach 1,950 - up 407 in 24 hours.
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Actual number to be more like 50,000, which would still be something like 0.08% of the population.
This is not the apocalypse. Everyone should just calm down, follow the advice and carry on.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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17-03-2020, 19:36
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#711
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,167
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Re: Coronavirus
There's lots of posts over the internet criticising Johnson for doing a U turn.
Is he simply moving onto the next stage of Herd Immunity, or is this indeed an admission that he got it wrong and he's changed course?
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17-03-2020, 19:59
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#712
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 37,063
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter
There's lots of posts over the internet criticising Johnson for doing a U turn.
Is he simply moving onto the next stage of Herd Immunity, or is this indeed an admission that he got it wrong and he's changed course?
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That's a false dichotomy (in other words, there are more possible answers than the two you have offered).
The science of this has been explained on various news programmes throughout the day. Radio 4's World at One is a good place to start ... the first 15-20 minutes or so.
In essence, the strategy last week was to attempt a controlled burn through the population, in order to keep within NHS capacity but also to gain widespread immunity to SARS2 (the coronavirus causing coven-19). The progress of the infection generated a ton of new data over the weekend which was analysed at Imperial College London. This data suggested that under that strategy, critical/fatal infections could rise to 250,000 - far too high to sustain.
The strategy has now therefore changed to an increasingly aggressive containment effort. This does two things: first it sacrifices the drive for herd immunity, second it probably keeps the NHS within capacity. It also poses a serious risk: if the virus is still present in the population when restrictions ease, it will flare up again. We are probably therefore in this now for the very long haul.
The extreme long-term nature of the crisis we now face is the reason it was worth trying for herd immunity. I don't think it is fair to characterise this as 'Boris got it wrong' - there are always a range of options, weighted by available evidence. He would have 'got it wrong' by sticking to the same decision in the mount of changing weight of evidence. But he didn't.
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17-03-2020, 20:07
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#713
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,244
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
That's a false dichotomy (in other words, there are more possible answers than the two you have offered).
The science of this has been explained on various news programmes throughout the day. Radio 4's World at One is a good place to start ... the first 15-20 minutes or so.
In essence, the strategy last week was to attempt a controlled burn through the population, in order to keep within NHS capacity but also to gain widespread immunity to SARS2 (the coronavirus causing coven-19). The progress of the infection generated a ton of new data over the weekend which was analysed at Imperial College London. This data suggested that under that strategy, critical/fatal infections could rise to 250,000 - far too high to sustain.
The strategy has now therefore changed to an increasingly aggressive containment effort. This does two things: first it sacrifices the drive for herd immunity, second it probably keeps the NHS within capacity. It also poses a serious risk: if the virus is still present in the population when restrictions ease, it will flare up again. We are probably therefore in this now for the very long haul.
The extreme long-term nature of the crisis we now face is the reason it was worth trying for herd immunity. I don't think it is fair to characterise this as 'Boris got it wrong' - there are always a range of options, weighted by available evidence. He would have 'got it wrong' by sticking to the same decision in the mount of changing weight of evidence. But he didn't.
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Not BJ's biggest fan, but totally agree with you on this one - he did the right thing by reviewing the changing information,and acting on it.
And on that note, here's the Emergency Coronavirus bill, drawn up after cross-party talks.
https://www.gov.uk/government/public...s-bill-will-do
Quote:
The bill enables action in 5 key areas:
increasing the available health and social care workforce – for example, by removing barriers to allow recently retired NHS staff and social workers to return to work (and in Scotland, in addition to retired people, allowing those who are on a career break or are social worker students to become temporary social workers)
easing the burden on frontline staff – by reducing the number of administrative tasks they have to perform, enabling local authorities to prioritise care for people with the most pressing needs, allowing key workers to perform more tasks remotely and with less paperwork, and taking the power to suspend individual port operations
containing and slowing the virus – by reducing unnecessary social contacts, for example through powers over events and gatherings, and strengthening the quarantine powers of police and immigration officers
managing the deceased with respect and dignity – by enabling the death management system to deal with increased demand for its services
supporting people – by allowing them to claim Statutory Sick Pay from day one, and by supporting the food industry to maintain supplies
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__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
Last edited by Hugh; 17-03-2020 at 20:10.
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17-03-2020, 20:11
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#714
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Still alive and fighting
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: In the land of beyond and beyond.
Services: XL BB, 3 360 boxes , XL TV.
Posts: 56,361
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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l agree as this is not a time for party politics as this grave crisis and the consequences of it outweigh petty politics.
__________________
“The only lesson you can learn from history is that it repeats itself”
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17-03-2020, 20:11
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#715
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,274
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Re: Coronavirus
I do hope this lockdown thing doesn't last too long, they were right in trying to avoid it because we know that we can all only cope so long before it becomes intolerable.
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17-03-2020, 20:18
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#716
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,082
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Re: Coronavirus
The bottom line is:
The most vulnerable remain the most vulnerable, that hasn’t changed.
Whether we have a flash ( as in Italy) or a slow burn ( like we are trying ) the same demographic are at risk and most likely to suffer fatalities.
The difference is the capability of the health care system to cope.
The rest of us will be ill for a couple of weeks.
If those at risk, and those looking after those at risk, follow the guidance and protect them, they will save lives.
The best thing to happen is for the fit under 70’s, to contract the infection have a rough fortnight and get back on with life.
Whilst the vulnerable are protected.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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17-03-2020, 20:30
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#717
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
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Posts: 37,063
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Re: Coronavirus
The best available models are saying that this week’s change of strategy should reduce deaths from 250,000 to 20,000. It was the evidence that the herd immunity strategy would cause that massive number that forced them to reassess. That’s just too high a number, even with herd immunity as the prize.
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17-03-2020, 21:23
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#718
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Woke and proud !
Join Date: Jun 2004
Services: TV, Phone, BB, a wife
Posts: 9,195
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
The best available models are saying that this week’s change of strategy should reduce deaths from 250,000 to 20,000. It was the evidence that the herd immunity strategy would cause that massive number that forced them to reassess. That’s just too high a number, even with herd immunity as the prize.
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It was a stupid, dangerous and reckless theory. But credit to those that make these decisions for realising it and changing tack quickly.
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17-03-2020, 21:56
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#719
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,274
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Re: Coronavirus
I wonder if we'll go into a rolling lockdown whereby people are encourged to go out again when the pressure on the NHS dips and then locked down again when it raises. The risk would be people not understanding why it's important I guess.
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17-03-2020, 21:58
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#720
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jun 2003
Age: 37
Services: Plusnet FFTC
Posts: 4,827
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
I wonder if we'll go into a rolling lockdown whereby people are encourged to go out again when the pressure on the NHS dips and then locked down again when it raises. The risk would be people not understanding why it's important I guess.
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This is one of the scenarios in the imperial college paper. This will no doubt result in "Boris can't make his mind up!"
Baring some possible but unlikely scenarios we are going to be headed to herd immunity one way or another.
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