President Trump & U.S Election 2016 Investigation

A special election in Pennsylvania is now 'too close to call': http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bellw..._vod_headlines

This is about a 20 point swing from when Trump won the district or 17 point swing for the last congressional election.

Originally Posted by Damien

A special election in Pennsylvania is now 'too close to call': http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bellw..._vod_headlines

This is about a 20 point swing from when Trump won the district or 17 point swing for the last congressional election.

And it’s returned a Republican since 2003.

Latest results

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-election.html

Conor Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 579 votes, over Rick Saccone with 100 percent of precincts fully reporting.
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
Conor Lamb
Democrat
113,111 49.8%
Rick Saccone
Republican
112,532 49.6
Drew Miller
Libertarian
1,372 0.6
227,015 votes, 100% reporting (593 of 593 precincts)

Gonna have to be a full recount I guess. That's very close! I think anything under 0.5% is an automatic recount.

Originally Posted by Damien

A special election in Pennsylvania is now 'too close to call': http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bellw..._vod_headlines

This is about a 20 point swing from when Trump won the district or 17 point swing for the last congressional election.

Cannot really measure things like swings etc accurately in one Congressional race, and as it stands, 5 out of 6 congressional elections have gone to Republicans, either way, turn out is not as good as Country wide presidential elections. People just don’t go out and vote like they do in big elections.

I read also some Republicans voters were turned away from voting, because the district lines on the map were changed in the recent boundary changes, which Republicans I believe have approached the Supreme Court to look at.

Democrat Lamb also ran on Trump policies, Pro Life, Pro-Gun, said wouldn’t vote behind Pelosi etc.

There was also other Elections yesterday and the Republican candidate won very comfortably.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...nnessee-senate

Nope - the lines haven’t changed yet, as this is the last vote on the previous gerrymandered voting districts, and the election in November will be under the new districts.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...districts-2018

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court released a new map for the state’s US House of Representatives districts Monday, to replace the old one it struck down as a Republican partisan gerrymander. And the new map is positively fantastic news for Democrats in their effort to take back the House this fall.

“Democrats get everything they could want,” the New York Times’s Nate Cohn tweeted when he first saw the map Monday.

“With few exceptions it’s Democrats’ dream come true,” the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman tweeted. “GOP not going to like this at all.”

The net impact of the new map is:

- It creates two new districts where Democrats are favored that didn’t exist in the previous map (and in one of those, they’re overwhelmingly favored).

- It keeps the same number of very closely divided swing districts that existed before (three).

- It changes one district that had been overwhelmingly Republican to be one where the GOP is favored but not entirely certain to win (Trump won the new district by about 9 points).

- Overall, it reduces by one the number of safe Republican districts (where Trump won by more than 15 points), and by one the number of lean Republican districts (where Trump won by 5 to 15 points).

Originally Posted by Hugh

Nope - the lines haven’t changed yet, as this is the last vote on the previous gerrymandered voting districts, and the election in November will be under the new districts.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...districts-2018

I know the lines have not changed but some Republican voters were still turned away!

Originally Posted by Mick

Cannot really measure things like swings etc accurately in one Congressional race, and as it stands, 5 out of 6 congressional elections have gone to Republicans, either way, turn out is not as good as Country wide presidential elections. People just don’t go out and vote like they do in big elections.

These are also measure against the last congressional races. There have been significant swings to the Democratic candidate even in the ones that ultimately went to the Republicans. It's not a good sign to have a 17-point swing even if you manage to hold onto the seat because in many districts you wouldn't have such a huge margin to lose.

I read also some Republicans voters were turned away from voting, because the district lines on the map were changed in the recent boundary changes, which Republicans I believe have approached the Supreme Court to look at.

Bit rich. The district is heavily drawn for Republicans: (it's in the bottom left-hand corner)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/

Originally Posted by Damien

These are also measure against the last congressional races. There have been significant swings to the Democratic candidate even in the ones that ultimately went to the Republicans. It's not a good sign to have a 17-point swing even if you manage to hold onto the seat because in many districts you wouldn't have such a huge margin to lose.



Bit rich. The district is heavily drawn for Republicans: (it's in the bottom left-hand corner)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/

No it is not a bit rich, I saw what these voters were saying, they were turned away, being told the district lines had been changed, in tight races like this, things like that matter and need to be investigated.

Originally Posted by Mick

No it is not a bit rich, I saw what these voters were saying, they were turned away, being told the district lines had been changed, in tight races like this, things like that matter and need to be investigated.

Of course they do but it could equally be possible Democrats were turned away.

There always seems to be some reason. When Roy Moore lost it was fraudulent voters, this time Republicans were turned away. It's a wonder Republicans win at all since every Democrat seems to getting in via nefarious means

Well there was fraudulent voters, these elections do have such things you know.

Last night's election is not indicative of how things will go in November. Yesterday, the Democrat candidate Lamb went in +6 point lead and barely won (pending challenges). As I already said, he had to run as a pro-2A, pro-life, anti-Pelosi Dem. Hardly representative of their party.

Originally Posted by Mick

Well there was fraudulent voters, these elections do have such things you know.

Last night's election is not indicative of how things will go in November. Yesterday, the Democrat candidate Lamb went in +6 point lead and barely won (pending challenges). As I already said, he had to run as a pro-2A, pro-life, anti-Pelosi Dem. Hardly representative of their party.

The poll that him +6 was the most kind poll to him. On average he actually went in with a +2 lead: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...lamb-6327.html

But this was a comfortably Republican district. The last time there was an election the Democrats didn't even bother to run.

We don't know if the Democrat has actually won because the margin is so close that it won't be called. He is ahead but there will certainly be a recount.

However irrespective of which way this narrow margin falls losing to a Democrat in a heavily Republican district doesn't bode well for November even if the results don't replicate exactly.

If I were to bet I would say the Republicans will narrowly hang on as the map is advantageous to them, more Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans and the Dems are in competitive districts whereas the Republicans are in safe seats. Still in special elections, actual votes, there have been a large move away from the Republican.

You cannot say that because the turn out is low, these one off special elections do not see large voter turn out like large scale presidential elections, so this swing you speak of cannot be accurately measured and the point you keep ignoring is that Lamb run on Republican policies and is said to be Anti-Pelosi.

Originally Posted by Mick

You cannot say that because the turn out is low, these one off special elections do not see large voter turn out like large scale presidential elections, so this swing you speak of cannot be accurately measured and the point you keep ignoring is that Lamb run on Republican policies and is said to be Anti-Pelosi.

The last point is rather standard though. Unless they've lost their minds then Democrats run their most right-wing candidates in deep red states and Republicans their most liberal candidates in deep blue states.

In the voters wanted a Republican there was still one on the ballot.

As for turnout I am not sure how it compares to before, it's actually pretty difficult to find anywhere that tells me this. If you know of anywhere that's reporting the numbers let me know.

This may explain why some people can't vote (because they're not supposed to...)

http://triblive.com/local/regional/1...ng-eligibility

The race between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone for the 18th Congressional District seat caused a bit of angst for “voters” across Pennsylvania on Tuesday who tried to cast ballots, only to be turned away because they live outside the district.

Officials in Westmoreland and Allegheny counties — portions of which are included in the 18th District — said they received angry calls from voters who live outside the district but thought they should have been eligible to vote in the special election.

And it didn't end there.

Indeed, confusion apparently was the order of the day across the state.

The Morning Call , a daily newspaper in Allentown, reported that voters in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley, nearly 300 miles from the 18th Congressional District, logged angry calls to county elections officials there complaining that the polls were closed and they were denied a right to vote in the hotly contested special election that has drawn national media attention.

Closer to home, Allegheny County officials said there are 214,772 eligible voters in 253 voting precincts across the county who could vote in the race.

In Sewickley, the county received complaints about a polling place that was not open. That municipality is not in the 18th District.

County officials said several voters in Monroeville were turned away from their polling places because of confusion over wards that are split between congressional districts. Part of Monroeville is in U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle's district.

Monroeville wards in the 18th District are: Ward 2 — Districts 1 and 3; Ward 3 — District 2; Ward 4 — Districts 1 and 2; and Ward 5 — District 3. Only voters in those wards were permitted to vote.

Westmoreland County elections officials fielded calls from voters confused about why their precincts were closed, not aware they are in a different congressional district, said Beth Lechman, elections bureau director. A handful of those calls came from the Murrysville area, she said.

Of the county's 175 precincts, 125 participated in the special election. River towns such as Donegal, Charleroi and Monongahela are not included, but some voters there called to ask why their precincts were closed.

“Some are just kind of confused because they see ads on TV and signs on the road, so they thought they were included,” said Melanie Ostrander, the county's assistant director of elections.

Tina Kiger, director of Greene County's Office of Elections and Voter Registration, said her staff received between 65 and 70 calls from voters who thought they lived in the 18th District but learned they did not when they went to vote. All of Greene County west of Interstate 79 and a small sliver east of the interstate is in the 18th District.

---------- Post added at 14:41 ---------- Previous post was at 13:51 ----------

Originally Posted by Mick

Cannot really measure things like swings etc accurately in one Congressional race, and as it stands, 5 out of 6 congressional elections have gone to Republicans, either way, turn out is not as good as Country wide presidential elections. People just don’t go out and vote like they do in big elections.

I read also some Republicans voters were turned away from voting, because the district lines on the map were changed in the recent boundary changes, which Republicans I believe have approached the Supreme Court to look at.

Democrat Lamb also ran on Trump policies, Pro Life, Pro-Gun, said wouldn’t vote behind Pelosi etc.

There was also other Elections yesterday and the Republican candidate won very comfortably.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/13/p...ues/index.html

Lamb ran on a platform for universal health care, for reproductive choice (pro-choice, not "Pro Life"), and protecting unions - none of these are Trump policies. He supported the steel/aluminum tariff policy and stronger background checks.

Health care: Lamb criticized the GOP attempt to repeal Obamacare and called for bipartisan efforts to stabilize its markets. "I'll work with anyone from either party who wants to help people with pre-existing conditions, improve the quality of care, and reduce premiums, out-of-pocket costs, and prescription drug prices," he says on his campaign website.

Taxes: He called the GOP tax bill a "giveaway" to wealthy Americans and said he supports cuts for the middle class. "We didn't need to add a penny to our debt to have the tax cut for our working and middle-class people," Lamb said in a debate.

Gun control: He's called for a stronger system of background checks but no new gun restrictions. "I believe we have a pretty good law on the books and it says on paper that there are a lot of people who should never get guns in their hands," Lamb said.

Tariffs: He supports President Donald Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, saying at a debate that "we have to take some action to level the playing field."

Abortion: Lamb personally opposes abortion but backs the Supreme Court's decision legalizing it. "Once you make something a right, it's a right. And it's like that for a reason," he told HuffPost. Lamb told the Weekly Standard he doesn't support a ban on abortion at 20 weeks.

A GOP talking point about the Dems win in Pennsylvania 18 is that voters voted for a Democrat who supported Trump policies - in that case, why didn’t they vote for the Republican who said "he was Trump before Trump was Trump", and was an avid Trump supporter?

Also, Shah, the White House spokesman called the result "essentially a tie." - must be a new definition of "tie" I hadn’t come across before...

Oh yes, I forgot - "alternative facts"...