Brexit (Old)

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

I suspect I understand it rather better than you do.

They need a presence within the EU, they don’t need to move their entire operation. The fact is, London is the world centre of the money markets and the case for retaining most operations in the City is overwhelming. Most institutions that have judged they need to have a presence within the EU post-Brexit have already opened satellite offices in Frankfurt or Paris. As a result, a few hundred jobs have shifted out of London, while at the same time general growth and expansion has added more new jobs than have been lost.

Ireland has had success in the past in attracting major corporations like Apple, but they did so using tax incentives that have since been ruled illegal. Without rigging their tax system, they have the language and the time zone in their favour, while against them is the fact that it’s Ireland. If you don’t understand what a disincentive that is, there’s little point trying to elaborate ...

I've not intended to suggest them moving their entire operations to Ireland. They will set up separate companies there to sell into the EU and the regulators will require compliance functions to be based there alongside the traders.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I've not said anything about them moving their entire operations to Ireland.

In which case, you already understand that the potential headcount loss to the Eurozone is trivial compared to the size of the sector in London, and your previous comments are mischief-making at best ...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

In which case, you already understand that the potential headcount loss to the Eurozone is trivial compared to the size of the sector in London, and your previous comments are mischief-making at best ...

Nothing mischief-making in any of my comments, I assure you. Just stating that the accusation "Yes, how is Dublin’s attempt to steal financial services business from the City coming along?" in my view is wrong as those companies have no choice but to relocate staff to the EU.

[djfunkdup]

Originally Posted by Chris

and your previous comments are mischief-making at best ...

Just like the comments of most Remainers in this thread lol ... Just trying to throw a spanner into the works at best ... Nothing else left for them to do i suppose

[1andrew1]

The Government may be showing some pragmatism.

Philip Hammond told business leaders that the “threat” of a no-deal Brexit could be taken “off the table” within days and potentially lead to Article 50 “rescinded”, a leaked recording of a conference call reveals.
The Chancellor set out how a backbench Bill could effectively be used to stop any prospect of no deal. He suggested that ministers may even back the plan when asked for an “assurance” by the head of Tesco that the Government would not oppose the motion.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...o-deal-brexit/

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Nothing mischief-making in any of my comments, I assure you. Just stating that the accusation "Yes, how is Dublin’s attempt to steal financial services business from the City coming along?" in my view is wrong as those companies have no choice but to relocate staff to the EU.

How can the question be wrong?

More’s the point, what do you understand the answer to it to be? How many jobs have relocated from the City to Dublin (and how many more to Frankfurt)? Is the number in any way significant, compared to overall headcount in London?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by djfunkdup

Just like the comments of most Remainers in this thread lol ... Just trying to throw a spanner into the works at best ... Nothing else left for them to do i suppose

Nothing mischief-making in my thread, I assure you.

[djfunkdup]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Nothing mischief-making in my thread, I assure you.

Naughty man

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

How can the question be wrong?

More’s the point, what do you understand the answer to it to be? How many jobs have relocated from the City to Dublin (and how many more to Frankfurt)? Is the number in any way significant, compared to overall headcount in London?

Easy. The question is a leading question. How can Dublin be stealing financial services from the City of London if people have to leave the City in order to continue to sell to those services into the EU?

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by Chris

I’m genuinely curious what you’re basing that prediction on. The ERG simply won’t vote for that and Corbyn (whose support would be required) won’t even talk to her.

Whatever she comes back from Brussels with is only going to be the same deal with an infinitesimal improvement on the backstop clause - which will almost certainly still get voted down, unless the mood in the country and the economy had poisoned sufficiently by that point to persuade the rebel Tories and the DUP to get on board.

The chances of a No Deal exit have increased massively tonight.

cabinet minsters saying in the I softer Brexit now and Philip Hammond saying to business MPS wont allow a no deal and remember vast majority remain parliament

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

In which case, you already understand that the potential headcount loss to the Eurozone is trivial compared to the size of the sector in London, and your previous comments are mischief-making at best ...

It's initially small in headcount but the threat to the City is by making it gradually less competitive. And a capital outflow of a trillion is no small sum. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/i...ets/index.html

Despite your assertion that London is the No. 1 financial city in the world, that has recently ceased to be so.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global..._Centres_Index

---------- Post added at 00:24 ---------- Previous post was at 00:06 ----------

Originally Posted by Dave42

cabinet minsters saying in the I softer Brexit now and Philip Hammond saying to business MPs won't allow a no deal and remember vast majority remain parliament

I think yesterday was probably the day that a no-deal Brexit died.

Sebastian Payne in the FT says that Theresa May has two choices:
1. Pursues a softer Brexit which includes membership of the Customs Union. This would be acceptable to Parliament but would break the Tories as BoJo, pals, and members would not like the constraints on trade deals it imposes.
2. Prioritises the Conservative party she joined as a teenager and take a stance that harms the country?
She will need to decide by Monday and present her plans to Parliament then.

[Carth]

Big surprise there . . business leaders (tesco lol ) asking the Government to remove the 'no deal' option.

Makes you wonder who does run this Country at times.

Just think about who it is that's crippling farmers with their cheap buying terms .... how many times have we heard about milk farmers being squeezed to death by these people.

oh and talking about farmers . . how on earth can they end up poorer with a no deal brexit? They can get back to actually growing stuff and animal management - which in turn leads to more UK companies processing the stuff instead of everything being produced in Europe and being sold here.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

Big surprise there . . business leaders (tesco lol ) asking the Government to remove the 'no deal' option.

Makes you wonder who does run this Country at times.

Just think about who it is that's crippling farmers with their cheap buying terms .... how many times have we heard about milk farmers being squeezed to death by these people.

oh and talking about farmers . . how on earth can they end up poorer with a no deal brexit? They can get back to actually growing stuff and animal management - which in turn leads to more UK companies processing the stuff instead of everything being produced in Europe and being sold here.

Most tariffs in developed countries are pretty low but historically food is not one of them. One of the aims bring to encourage self-sufficiency in case of war together with vote-winning in rural US and France.
If the UK left on WTO terms, farmers geared towards exporting to the EU would find their markets severely reduced, as tariffs would not make them competitive. If we then did sign a free trade deal with the US or Australia, our small farm size would render a lot of our agriculture as uncompetitive.
No deal does not poll well so no surprise anyone speaking to the Government will ask that it's ruled out. And, much as some left-wing leavers like Jeremy Corbyn may wish, this is not Venezuela. The Government should listen to wealth-creating companies like Tesco but not be afraid to regulate them.

One rather overlooked issue with Dublin is the actual capacity. It’s not that big. Accommodation, flights, public transportation and so on would be pressing issues if there were any large scale movement there.

Originally Posted by Damien

One rather overlooked issue with Dublin is the actual capacity. It’s not that big. Accommodation, flights, public transportation and so on would be pressing issues if there were any large scale movement there.

Kind of the point I was making. I worked out of an office in Dublin regularly for a while (in financial services, naturally) it was an absolute flaming nightmare, every single time.