Brexit (Old)

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Not just supported, campaigned for them



Didn't those 4 million votes occur after Dave said there would be a referendum, they weren't getting that in general elections before then and I'm pretty sure I aired my views here multiple times about what a travesty it was they got 1 mp for their number of votes whilst the snp got many more for much fewer

Sorry but Hugh has already debated on your behalf,time to move on.

Key quote from May’s Downing Street announcement:

“In a historic vote in 2016 the country decided to leave the EU, in 2017, 80% of people voted for parties that stood on manifestos promising to respect that result.”

She seems to be co-opting the 2017 election result as a further reason not to hold a second referendum or to otherwise delay Art.50. As far as she’s concerned, we’re leaving on 29 March.

As Noel Edmonds might day, Deal or No Deal.

[djfunkdup]

Originally Posted by Chris

. As far as she’s concerned, we’re leaving on 29 March.

As Noel Edmonds might say, Deal or No Deal.

Totally correct Chris Never been any doubt ..

[Dave42]

looks like as she talking to other parties a softer Brexit will now be done as all other parties wont allow a no deal brexit

Originally Posted by Dave42

looks like as she talking to other parties a softer Brexit will now be done as all other parties wont allow a no deal brexit

1. Corbyn won’t talk to her because she won’t take No Deal off the table.
2. Other parties have no power to dictate a new Brexit deal, because there is no agreement in Parliament for anything at all.
3. Government still controls Parliament and can (and will) deny it enough time to pass the primary legislation that would be required to extend or cancel Art.50.

I think May genuinely believes it's her duty to see out Brexit and respect the referendum so anything short of that would be forced on her by circumstance. I also think she strongly believes no deal is a disaster and a failure on her part.

I really don't know what's going to happen! It comes down to Parliament in the end.

As I said before I think her deal with a customs union or some variant of EEA/EFTA will be what we leave with. I think a referendum is off the cards personally.

[1andrew1]

William Hill reckons an extension of Article 50 is the most likely.

William Hill odds for 30/3/19
Article 50 still in place, i.e. extended 1/4
Article 50 revoked 16/1
Left EU with a deal 6/1
Left EU without a deal 6/1
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en...arch+2019.html

Originally Posted by Damien

I think May genuinely believes it's her duty to see out Brexit and respect the referendum so anything short of that would be forced on her by circumstance. I also think she strongly believes no deal is a disaster and a failure on her part.

I really don't know what's going to happen! It comes down to Parliament in the end.

As I said before I think her deal with a customs union or some variant of EEA/EFTA will be what we leave with. I think a referendum is off the cards personally.

I’m genuinely curious what you’re basing that prediction on. The ERG simply won’t vote for that and Corbyn (whose support would be required) won’t even talk to her.

Whatever she comes back from Brussels with is only going to be the same deal with an infinitesimal improvement on the backstop clause - which will almost certainly still get voted down, unless the mood in the country and the economy had poisoned sufficiently by that point to persuade the rebel Tories and the DUP to get on board.

The chances of a No Deal exit have increased massively tonight.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

No Deal will certainly pose difficulties in the immediate term, but if it happens, expect to see the Treasury immediately issue an emergency budget with a massive financial stimulus package. We are a rich country with a diverse economy and global trading clout.

Ireland, on the other hand, relies heavily on the U.K. market and the U.K. ‘land bridge’ - I.e. our road network. No Deal will be difficult for us, it will be an absolute catastrophe for them.

Ireland can tap into EU funds and resources. We can't. It will be bad for both of us, especially our farmers and manufacturers. Ireland will gain from more companies relocating there. We won't.

Originally Posted by Chris

I’m genuinely curious what you’re basing that prediction on. The ERG simply won’t vote for that and Corbyn (whose support would be required) won’t even talk to her.

Corbyn will have his own party politics to worry about if he continues to stall. I am not sure how long this refusal to talk will last for but she might be able to peel off some Labour MPs with such a deal.

I think this is her last act in politics anyway. The Tories can't get rid of her so Parliament is all she has to worry about.

The closer we get to no deal, the more pressure there will be to pass something.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Ireland can tap into EU funds and resources. We can't. It will be bad for both of us, especially our farmers and manufacturers. Ireland will gain from more companies relocating there. We won't.

Yes, how is Dublin’s attempt to steal financial services business from the City coming along?

The pattern and format of EU financial support for struggling eurozone economies is of course well known. Ask anyone in Greece or Italy exactly how poisoned a chalice it is.

And, even assuming both those things happen, they won’t happen very quickly. If we leave with no deal Dublin is going to be in a flat panic, make no mistake.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

William Hill reckons an extension of Article 50 is the most likely.

William Hill odds for 30/3/19
Article 50 still in place, i.e. extended 1/4
Article 50 revoked 16/1
Left EU with a deal 6/1
Left EU without a deal 6/1
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en...arch+2019.html

The 29th March brigade could make a killing here, even backing both the deal and no deal option.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Yes, how is Dublin’s attempt to steal financial services business from the City coming along?

The pattern and format of EU financial support for struggling eurozone economies is of course well known. Ask anyone in Greece or Italy exactly how poisoned a chalice it is.

And, even assuming both those things happen, they won’t happen very quickly. If we leave with no deal Dublin is going to be in a flat panic, make no mistake.

You must understand that those companies can't remain in the UK and still serve EU customers if we leave the EU?
Italy and Greece have economic and political structural issues that even the most ardent Eurosceptic would have difficulty blaming on the EU.
The EU can move quickly if it needs to.

---------- Post added at 22:56 ---------- Previous post was at 22:54 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

The 29th March brigade could make a killing here, even backing both the deal and no deal option.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You must understand that those companies can't remain in the UK and still serve EU customers if we leave the EU?

I suspect I understand it rather better than you do.

They need a presence within the EU, they don’t need to move their entire operation. The fact is, London is the world centre of the money markets and the case for retaining most operations in the City is overwhelming. Most institutions that have judged they need to have a presence within the EU post-Brexit have already opened satellite offices in Frankfurt or Paris. As a result, a few hundred jobs have shifted out of London, while at the same time general growth and expansion has added more new jobs than have been lost.

Ireland has had success in the past in attracting major corporations like Apple, but they did so using tax incentives that have since been ruled illegal. Without rigging their tax system, they have the language and the time zone in their favour, while against them is the fact that it’s Ireland. If you don’t understand what a disincentive that is, there’s little point trying to elaborate ...

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You must understand that those companies can't remain in the UK and still serve EU customers if we leave the EU?
Italy and Greece have economic and political structural issues that even the most ardent Eurosceptic would have difficulty blaming on the EU.
The EU can move quickly if it needs to.

The situation in Greece was a political choice to squeeze them for living beyond their means, treating taxes as optional and retirement ages in the 50s with generous pensions.

Ireland, on the other hand, wouldn’t be victim of circumstances they created here. I don’t want to sound like Jacob Rees-Mogg here but if the EU don’t act in Ireland’s interest then they could leave the EU if the economics favour all Ireland trade. That said, there’s another increasingly likely way to achieve that goal.