Coronavirus (OLD)

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

We rode out the wave, there is no second wave coming, we need to look a different ways of addressing fluctuations without primitive lockdowns.

Entirely speculative. Avoiding a second wave means significant ongoing restrictions.

it’s a sensible proposition to avoid lockdowns, which actually people are now just ignoring anyway.

I’m suggesting normal and never have, I’m suggesting different.

No normal = entrenching the recession and mass unemployment. Consumer behaviour is, and will remain, significantly different. Once we are done an early, proper, longer lockdown and eliminating the virus (plus effective test, trace, isolate) will look like the cheap option.

Instead trying to do it on the cheap, relying on luck, speculation and the virus “not liking warm climates” will cost more.

I do wonder who benefits from longer term instability. Those who speculate on the financial markets obviously, this is a once in a generation opportunity. And some of them get to work from home.

[Carth]

Is there any information on how long a person 'carries' the virus if they're asymptomatic? Does it just go away after a week or two?

In other news, the new 'Knee Jerk' government causes more chaos.

People coming to the UK from France and the Netherlands must quarantine for 14 days from Saturday

The UK quarantine measure also applies to people travelling from Monaco, Malta, Turks and Caicos, and Aruba

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Entirely speculative. Avoiding a second wave means significant ongoing restrictions.

Not really, restrictions have been eased since June and lockdown was lifted well over a month ago.

Thousands have been congregating on Beaches, pubs and rallies, infection rate has stayed steady around 1000 or less. It was announced again today that it has levelled off again after a slight rise.

The Manchester council leader on R4 today advised that infection rates in Oldham are double, yet hospital admissions have halved.

It was predicted months ago, and posted on here by me, that a second wave would not happen and it would be a plateau with the odd ripple, and that is what is happening.

As much as you would to see Rome burn, it ain’t going to happen

No normal = entrenching the recession and mass unemployment. Consumer behaviour is, and will remain, significantly different. Once we are done an early, proper, longer lockdown and eliminating the virus (plus effective test, trace, isolate) will look like the cheap option.

I’ve already said there won’t be “Normal“ but restrictions should continue to lifted and local fluctuations should be dealt with by just shielding the at risk groups.

I do wonder who benefits from longer term instability. Those who speculate on the financial markets obviously, this is a once in a generation opportunity. And some of them get to work from home.

I know who benefits from further lockdowns, no one. We need to be smarter.

[Hom3r]

Why are idiots complaining that they haven't been given enough notice about the new current quarantined countries?


We were all told that this could happen, yet these idiots still travel.

My sister chose to lose £800 in lost flights (as Ryan air still flew to the country, but their accommodation had been cancelled). Ryan air would have transferred them for £900.

---------- Post added at 19:43 ---------- Previous post was at 19:27 ----------

My only issue is the companies raise prices by 400%, they should be massively find by regulators.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Why are idiots complaining that they haven't been given enough notice about the new current quarantined countries?


We were all told that this could happen, yet these idiots still travel.

My sister chose to lose £800 in lost flights (as Ryan air still flew to the country, but their accommodation had been cancelled). Ryan air would have transferred them for £900.

---------- Post added at 19:43 ---------- Previous post was at 19:27 ----------

My only issue is the companies raise prices by 400%, they should be massively find by regulators.

In the same vein - Ryan Air? The madness of booking with them.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Not really, restrictions have been eased since June and lockdown was lifted well over a month ago.

As you know the biggest restrictions are schools and the middle classes working from home.

Thousands have been congregating on Beaches, pubs and rallies, infection rate has stayed steady around 1000 or less. It was announced again today that it has levelled off again after a slight rise.

I’m sure it was announced today that R is above 1 in England. That road leads one place. Lockdown.

The Manchester council leader on R4 today advised that infection rates in Oldham are double, yet hospital admissions have halved.

It was predicted months ago, and posted on here by me, that a second wave would not happen and it would be a plateau with the odd ripple, and that is what is happening.

You need to be right about that every day. I only need to be right once. And we are at or near the limits of what we can ease.

As much as you would to see Rome burn, it ain’t going to happen

Far from. I’ve been advising that short term pain = long term gain. Old normal back in action. Despite its failings it was/is achievable.

I’ve already said there won’t be “Normal“ but restrictions should continue to lifted and local fluctuations should be dealt with by just shielding the at risk groups.

I know who benefits from further lockdowns, no one. We need to be smarter.

And we will not be smarter by following strategies discounted by the entire world.

I don’t think that you fully understand the precarious nature of almost every capitalist business working in competitive markets. They can’t afford small single figure drops in trade, let alone the levels of shift we will see as the middle classes, and thanks to technology many administrative working classes, shield over the winter, absolutely rationally. You sanction the over 50s shielding - a further sizeable proportion of the consumer base.

These fundamentally undermine the entire economy and will continue to do so in the long term. It is not me advocating Rome burning. I’m advocating throwing the volume of the Atlantic Ocean over it. You seem to think if everyone opens a window and urinates out of it that this will cause the flame to subside. If I am certain of anything it will not.

If you end up right on this it will be by pure chance.

[Sephiroth]

Where was it announced that R>1 in England? And is that whole England or just the known pockets?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

If you end up right on this it will be by pure chance.

---------- Post added at 20:11 ---------- Previous post was at 20:05 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Where was it announced that R>1 in England? And is that whole England or just the known pockets?

It wasn’t

R remains the same

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-show-12049175

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

In the same vein - Ryan Air? The madness of booking with them.

Unfortunately they are the only Airline that flew to their holiday destination from our local airport on the day they wanted.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Where was it announced that R>1 in England? And is that whole England or just the known pockets?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-517682...wshealthcvd%5D

Sage says it is no longer confident R is below 1 in England. It says models using testing data, rather than epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, to predict transmission rates are suggesting higher values for R and these are likely to be reflected in the coming weeks.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-517682...wshealthcvd%5D

I couldn't find that quote in the link. But I did find this which contradicts your quote:

The current estimate by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, known as Sage, for the R number across the whole of the UK is between 0.8 and 1.0 as of 14 August.

[jfman]

It’s really irrelevant if R is 0.99999 or 1. Restrictions ease, more human contact, R increases in the absence of steps to mitigate.

Who knows maybe the virus doesn’t like the cold? It turns out it wasn’t that bothered by the heat so let’s wager on that. My magic 8 ball (ask8ball.net) says it’s “most likely” we will defeat coronavirus so some other acts of chance must go in our favour in the absence of an coherent public health position.

Some “insights” into the Swedish Socrates of herd immunity and his lack of expertise have been revealed in some emails.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200812/why...egnells-emails

“Over in one or two months“. Old Boy may yet have a career in epidemiology if he has the right to live and work in the European Union. I’m confident Sweden will be recruiting soon.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s really irrelevant if R is 0.99999 or 1. Restrictions ease, more human contact, R increases in the absence of steps to mitigate.

Who knows maybe the virus doesn’t like the cold? It turns out it wasn’t that bothered by the heat so let’s wager on that. My magic 8 ball (ask8ball.net) says it’s “most likely” we will defeat coronavirus so some other acts of chance must go in our favour in the absence of an coherent public health position.

Some “insights” into the Swedish Socrates of herd immunity and his lack of expertise have been revealed in some emails.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200812/why...egnells-emails

“Over in one or two months“. Old Boy may yet have a career in epidemiology if he has the right to live and work in the European Union. I’m confident Sweden will be recruiting soon.

Wibble, Take the pencils out your nose, the underwear off your head and keep off the gin.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I couldn't find that quote in the link. But I did find this which contradicts your quote:

Scroll to the bottom of the article, just above the last chart - the final paragraph says why SAGE don’t have confidence in the previous measurements.

Sage says it is no longer confident R is below 1 in England. It says models using testing data, rather than epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, to predict transmission rates are suggesting higher values for R and these are likely to be reflected in the coming weeks.