Liz Truss Resigns [Who'll be the next Prime Minister?]

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So you’ve already had the rebate and energy subsidy don’t come into effect until next month?

https://helpforhouseholds.campaign.g...E&gclsrc=aw.ds

not like OB to make stuff up.

However shame on him for leaving Pierre to take the flack being the first to defend the Government. The late great Comical Ali stood there to the very end.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So you’ve already had the rebate and energy subsidy don’t come into effect until next month?

https://helpforhouseholds.campaign.g...E&gclsrc=aw.ds

The rebate on my bill, I said, and that is available from October.

---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:46 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

That isn't going to be nearly enough, you need to make proper spending cuts of billions. If that was announced alongside a forecast then maybe the markets wouldn't have reacted the way they did.

Originally Posted by jfman

not like OB to make stuff up.

However shame on him for leaving Pierre to take the flack being the first to defend the Government. The late great Comical Ali stood there to the very end.

I’ve had other things to do, jfman. I’m not here 24/7 like some of you!

[jfman]

Time, and facts, have never stopped you being a mouthpiece for CCHQ before.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Damien

Tax cuts are a permanent cut to your income. Furlough was added to the debt. If the markets think you can meet your debt obligations they don't see it as a risk. If they think it is a risk then they want higher interest in return for lending to you.

The bank had no problem giving me a mortgage but if I decided to cut my income and replace the lost money by using a credit card then I would be seen as a risker proposition.

The Government gave the market's confidence they knew what they were doing with the furlough costs and now the Government isn't giving such confidence.

It's not as if I am making this up. You can see it in the markets.

Why did you bother starting this line of conservation if you're just going to be dishonest and sarcastic about it?

This is all on the predication that the tax cuts will be a massive failure and not encourage any growth and therefore increase earnings. Basically "the markets" are betting on UKplc to fail.

But if the government had done nothing, where would the stimulus for growth come from?

The economy would just stagnate further.

You could say it is a gamble, and it is. But I'd rather somebody do something rather than sit on their hands.

If she pulls it off, she may save the Tories, if she fails, she's just the latest Tory PM to blow it.

I wasn't being sarcastic, just highlighting the disparity in thinking. The 37bn should be looked at as what it is meant to be - an investment not a loss.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The rebate on my bill, I said, and that is available from October.

---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:46 ----------





I’ve had other things to do, jfman. I’m not here 24/7 like some of you!

Indeed the travel time to La La land is significant.

The very fact there are government economic advisors & MP’s saying how stupid this course of action, the fact that the BoE had to intervene to protect pension funds and yet you still try and defend the actions taken and incredulously try to blame it on the left

This is on the PM & the chancellor no one else, and you? You’re just delusional

Originally Posted by Pierre

This is all on the predication that the tax cuts will be a massive failure and not encourage any growth and therefore increase earnings. Basically "the markets" are betting on UKplc to fail.

And that prediction comes about because the markets aren't convinced that tax cuts will address inflation caused by supply issues. Things are more expensive because of a backlog from COVID, the Ukraine war, issues around imports post-Brexit and energy costs across the supply chain.

But also because they didn't provide any costings or projections on how this would help. Proper budgets have come with an analysis showing future projections of debt, deficits and growth with the assumptions unpinning it. So people can go 'oh, ok, so they're saying if they achieve 2.5% growth then the income actually remains the same' and so on.

But if the government had done nothing, where would the stimulus for growth come from?

The economy would just stagnate further.

I don't know but the problem is inflation so you would need to address that first. This is why Sunak was losing his mind during the debates saying you can't tax cut your way out of an inflationary spiral and all it would do is increase interest rates as the BoE becomes more aggressive in trying to combat it. Remember he wanted to do tax cuts towards the end of Parliament when he assumed inflation would have come down.

My guess is that you need to wait for the underlying issues to solve themselves and while you wait you can take measures to address the people who are in crisis with the energy bill cap, tax cuts at the lower end of the pay scale, and maybe an increase in benefits and pensions. Anything you do that increases the demand but not the supply increases inflation in theory but you also can't let people suffer.

It's not an easy problem to solve but the reaction to this 'mini-budget' seems to show at best a naive and incompetent rollout of their idea. I think

You could say it is a gamble, and it is. But I'd rather somebody do something rather than sit on their hands.

The problem is that it's more than the Tories losing an election at stake if the gamble is lost.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Devaluing the currency, relative to who?

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The point is that £37bn doesn’t trickle down, no matter how many right wing think tanks have claimed it could.

£70bn kept people in jobs and businesses afloat. It paid their bills.

An astute point.

As I said in one of my earlier posts, Truss has chosen to roll the dice because it wasn't going to get any better in the then current regime.

I still hope that it works out, but there are heavy forces ranged against a good outcome.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

This is all on the predication that the tax cuts will be a massive failure and not encourage any growth and therefore increase earnings. Basically "the markets" are betting on UKplc to fail.

A solid bet time after time with the Tories in charge. We’ve borrowed £2.5trn against future generations income, the housing bubble does the same, all the privatised industries brought forward future profits into one off dividends for the state.

There’s nothing left to squeeze.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I siuspect Seph has probably now seen the light with Redwood.

I suspect you are right in light of Mr Redwood's previous pronouncements:



This was in 2017, God knows what he is telling his clients now! Words fail me ...

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I suspect you are right in light of Mr Redwood's previous pronouncements:



This was in 2017, God knows what he is telling his clients now! Words fail me ...

Why drag up his 2017 remarks? And with such emphasis.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I suspect you are right in light of Mr Redwood's previous pronouncements:

This was in 2017, God knows what he is telling his clients now! Words fail me ...

Probably the opportune moment when to invest back in. As Rees-Mogg’s investment firms noted there’s “once in a generation” opportunities arise in these circumstances. It’s just bizarre that a political party with a revolving door to the finance sector, that trousers plenty in donations, has had three such opportunities in a mere six years.

[Sephiroth]

John Redwood is in favour of lower taxes and gives his reasons in his blog. https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/

To that extent, he favours the Guvmin's recent steps.

In today's blog, he makes an important observation:

These interest rates matter. There are 2,5, 10, 20,30 year rates and others in between. If the 10 year or 20 year bond rate goes up so bank lending for people to buy homes will also go up, as will the cost to business of a longer term loan to invest in their company. Mortgage holders and businesses do not want their Central Bank actively intervening in the markets to drive these interest rates higher. The Bank should believe its own forecasts which show inflation tumbling next year. High energy prices and dearer mortgages are already taking too much demand out of the economy. Thank you Bank for at least a temporary pause to your driving the mortgage rates up.

John believes that the Guvmin's strategy will work if it sticks to that strategy.

I just hope he's right but I'm anticipating the worst.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The rebate on my bill, I said, and that is available from October.

---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:46 ----------





I’ve had other things to do, jfman. I’m not here 24/7 like some of you!

You posted

I’ve now had a monthly £66 government rebate on my bill

So you’ve now had something that is available next month?

Anyhoo…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/y...ries-n90lqlgf7

Labour has surged to a 33-point poll lead over the Conservatives after a week of market turmoil triggered by Liz Truss’s tax-cutting budget.

The YouGov poll for The Times finds Tory support has fallen by seven points in the past four days amid fears the government’s plans will lead to spiralling interest rate rises.

It is thought to be the largest poll lead enjoyed by any party with any pollster since the late 1990s.

Labour’s lead is fuelled by voters switching directly from the Conservatives, with 17 per cent of those who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 saying they would vote Labour.

Just 37 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an election were held now

[denphone]

Conservative opinion polling position in meltdown in the latest opinion poll by YouGov.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...28-29-sep-2022

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6ukuklig...M_220929_W.pdf

The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points.

As well as being their record highest share ever in a YouGov poll, Labour’s 33-point lead is the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s.