[Update] Cameron promises EU referendum by October 2017

[Sirius]

Oh look now the ruddy Germans are sticking there great big noses in. Not like the Germans to try and control other nations is it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20974666

A new, strongly worded warning against Britain leaving the EU has come from a delegation of visiting German MPs.

Well as far as i am concerned they can stick there warning up there lederhosen

Originally Posted by Sirius

Oh look now the ruddy Germans are sticking there great big noses in. Not like the Germans to try and control other nations is it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20974666



Well as far as i am concerned they can stick there warning up there lederhosen

Actually i'm quite flattered that they think enough of the UK to be issuing these bits of "advice" ,the Germans need us in europe more than we need europe and are worried we might actually take our ball away and play with the other boys and the yanks want us in europe to keep some semblance of sanity in the crazy club

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by marty

Actually i'm quite flattered that they think enough of the UK to be issuing these bits of "advice" ,the Germans need us in europe more than we need europe and are worried we might actually take our ball away and play with the other boys and the yanks want us in europe to keep some semblance of sanity in the crazy club

Sorry but Europe can rot in hell as far as i am concerned and we need to be out of it when it happens

Originally Posted by Sirius

Sorry but Europe can rot in hell as far as i am concerned and we need to be out of it when it happens

i agree i just like all the attention

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by martyh

i agree i just like all the attention

[Sirius]

And now Miliband jumps on the bandwagon


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21002984

Ed Miliband says David Cameron's EU policy "is incredibly dangerous" and is "sleepwalking us towards the exit".

The Labour leader told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show promising a future referendum on the UK's relationship with the EU would be "an incredible gamble".

I can agree with Miliband over sleep walking towards the exit and that it is a bad thing, we need to be sprinting at full pelt towards the exit

[Derek]

So in other words the public are too stupid to be given a choice so the politicians should make their minds up for them.

Nice. Reminds me why political types are so loved and respected by everyone!

Originally Posted by Derek

So in other words the public are too stupid to be given a choice so the politicians should make their minds up for them.

Nice. Reminds me why political types are so loved and respected by everyone!

Well i for one am happy that politicians make such choices for us .Personally my deliberations on choice of beans is taking precedent at the moment ,i have also deliberated extensively throughout the morning over which bread to toast so feel that the countries future development and societies well being are of little concern to me and more suited to individuals of higher intellect ......i'll have a good banter about it down the pub later

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Derek

So in other words the public are too stupid to be given a choice so the politicians should make their minds up for them.

Nice. Reminds me why political types are so loved and respected by everyone!

He has a point imo, if we're going to potentially become the next Denmark I'd like as much unbiased information made available to as many people as possible so we can an educated choice rather than relying on some shyster trying to persuade us to his cause.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

He has a point imo, if we're going to potentially become the next Denmark I'd like as much unbiased information made available to as many people as possible so we can an educated choice rather than relying on some shyster trying to persuade us to his cause.

Yup. This is not going to be a small decision. The way it's being viewed at the moment is that it will be an action without consequence, that we'll be free of EU meddling and bureaucracy and that will be that. There is never a mention of the benefits we will and might lose. 50% of our trade is with the EU.

What happens to the car companies that depend on the smooth and tariff-free trade between us and the mainland when their factories are here?

What happens to the start-up community the government is trying to build at the Silicon Roundabout in Old Street? I can tell you now that there is an abundance of people that use the right to work as members of the EU there. Do we cede that to Berlin who also want that industry?

People point to Norway and Switzerland as examples of being able to stay out of the EU but they do still have to deal with some EU edicts only they have no power to sway them. Norway still trades with the EU but they get given the rules and they cannot influence or veto them.

Of course we don't know that the alternative is exactly. As Heseltine said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...on-Europe.html

Lord Heseltine said: "To commit to a referendum about a negotiation that hasn't begun, on a timescale you cannot predict, on an outcome that's unknown, where Britain's appeal as an inward investment market would be the centre of the debate, seems to me like an unnecessary gamble".

He told the Financial Times: "Why put your factory [in Britain] when you don't know - and they can't tell you - the terms upon which you will trade with us in future?"

Originally Posted by Damien

There is never a mention of the benefits we will and might lose. 50% of our trade is with the EU.

What happens to the car companies that depend on the smooth and tariff-free trade between us and the mainland when their factories are here?

Less than 50%, and dropping - despite 40 years of policies explicitly designed to reorientate our trading patterns away from the world as a whole and inwards towards Europe. And we have a trade deficit with the EU - they sell more to us than we sell to them. To assume that there will be punitive tariffs for UK exporters is to fly in the face of common sense. The EU stands to lose a lot more than we do out of a tariff war.

And let's not forget, more Euro-denominated financial dealings take place in London -I.e. outside of the Eurozone - than in all the rest of the EU combined. Which leads neatly on to ...

As Heseltine said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...on-Europe.html

Hezza is merely regurgitating all the same scare stories that were put about by those that wanted us to join the Euro. We didn't join the Euro. The world didn't end. The British economy didn't end. In fact, now the Euro has landed hard on its rear end, the British economy is doing rather better than comparable Eurozone economies like Spain and Italy, which are crippled and facing endemic unemployment, despite having balance sheets which on paper are healthier than ours, because the Spanish and Italian governments have surrendered control of the policy controls necessary to sort the problem out for themselves.

In the long run, lack of autonomous economic control is a far bigger disadvantage for a nation state than any of the supposed short-term advantages of having an unelected politburo in Belgium arranging affairs for you.

Originally Posted by Chris

Less than 50%, and dropping - despite 40 years of policies explicitly designed to reorientate our trading patterns away from the world as a whole and inwards towards Europe. And we have a trade deficit with the EU - they sell more to us than we sell to them. To assume that there will be punitive tariffs for UK exporters is to fly in the face of common sense. The EU stands to lose a lot more than we do out of a tariff war.

And let's not forget, more Euro-denominated financial dealings take place in London -I.e. outside of the Eurozone - than in all the rest of the EU combined. Which leads neatly on to ...



Hezza is merely regurgitating all the same scare stories that were put about by those that wanted us to join the Euro. We didn't join the Euro. The world didn't end. The British economy didn't end. In fact, now the Euro has landed hard on its rear end, the British economy is doing rather better than comparable Eurozone economies like Spain and Italy, which are crippled and facing endemic unemployment, despite having balance sheets which on paper are healthier than ours, because the Spanish and Italian governments have surrendered control of the policy controls necessary to sort the problem out for themselves.

In the long run, lack of autonomous economic control is a far bigger disadvantage for a nation state than any of the supposed short-term advantages of having an unelected politburo in Belgium arranging affairs for you.

I think this article from last year sums it up nicely

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...er-the-EU.html

Originally Posted by Chris

Less than 50%, and dropping - despite 40 years of policies explicitly designed to reorientate our trading patterns away from the world as a whole and inwards towards Europe. And we have a trade deficit with the EU - they sell more to us than we sell to them. To assume that there will be punitive tariffs for UK exporters is to fly in the face of common sense. The EU stands to lose a lot more than we do out of a tariff war.

But this suggests that it will continue to drop and not that 'less than 50%' is actually a temporary low percentage caused by the Eurozone crisis. It's not as if Europe will just fade away with less and less economic activity happening. As it heads out of a crisis, probably still a number of years away, there is no reason to doubt that they will start to import more again. This is all leaving aside the fact that 45%-50% is a massive number when dealing with a single bloc.

No one is saying it will be a trade war but what exactly are the terms in which will we continue to do business with Europe? Even if we have it all our own way, which is unlikely, we will still be subject to some EU regulations. We still won't be export products which do not meet EU standards to the EU. We just won't be able to shape those regulations.

If we end up like Norway, part of the European Economic Area (which is the likely concession the EU would make to us) then we're subject to all sorts of trade and business regulations only we have no veto and no power to sway them. We, like Norway, would simply have to say 'fine'.

The global nature of financial services also means that London's banks will still have to abide by regulations and reports required of them by the EBA. Although the financial sector is occasionally upset with Europe our membership of the EU is a benefit, not a hindrance, to them setting up here.

http://www.thecityuk.com/research/ou...he-eu-economy/
http://www.thecityuk.com/blog/why-ou...opportunities/

Hezza is merely regurgitating all the same scare stories that were put about by those that wanted us to join the Euro. We didn't join the Euro. The world didn't end. The British economy didn't end. In fact, now the Euro has landed hard on its rear end, the British economy is doing rather better than comparable Eurozone economies like Spain and Italy, which are crippled and facing endemic unemployment, despite having balance sheets which on paper are healthier than ours, because the Spanish and Italian governments have surrendered control of the policy controls necessary to sort the problem out for themselves.

It's quite easy to have scare stories when the alternative route is not well defined. We cannot assume that our trade relationship with Europe will be in the event we leave. Some of our 'partners' will have a special interest and not giving us the terms we want. They all have a vested interest in getting car factories placed in their countries, not ours. Berlin has gone been gunning for the technology start-up industry and we're starting to do ok there with the creation of the Silicon Roundabout community. If you go to one of the many meetings they have there you'll see just how many Europeans work in it. In the absence of the EU right-to-work then this too will be hit, no longer will they be able to recruit from across the continent. I don't have much faith in our immigration laws compensating for that either.

It seems to me that in the bast case scenario we'll have no hit at all in our trade but we'll have to abide by EU regulation, ala Norway, with no power to shape them. The worst case scenario is that we are hit, especially in manufacturing. The holy grail of complete access to the European Market with no strings attached looks a pipe dream. Maybe it isn't. However as Heseltine points out, we're talking about a referendum and we know nothing of what it will be about.

Damien, the EEA was created mostly as a waiting room for States whose governments anticipated full EU membership would follow. That's why it carries a heavy regulatory burden, a la Norway, where despite many years of fierce campaigning the political class has never persuaded the citizens to vote 'yes' in a referendum. The Norwegian government has always enthusiatsically implemented EU directives because it has always believed that it would soon enough be a full member and would have to implement the directives anyway. Unfortunately for the Norwegian government, the democratic voice of the Norwegian people keeps getting in the way. The Norwegian people deserve better than the grubby political consensus that exists ove there, which is still pro-EU even though there is now a growing realisation that accession is a more distant prospect than ever.

There is no reason - absolutely no reason whatsoever - to presume that Britiain outside the EU would have to deal with the EU on EEA or Norwegian terms. This is simply yet more Europhile scaremongering.

[Osem]

Political grandstanding and rhetoric aside, I bet the EU would be a lot less worried about the UK leaving if we had a trade surplus with them and were net beneficiaries. At the moment the only thing keeping the Eurozone afloat is the German economy and, IIRC, that shows signs of stalling.