Coronavirus (OLD)

[pip08456]

Disney's Mulan release delayed until later in the year due to COVID-19.

https://www.ign.com/articles/mulan-release-date-delayed

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mick

Italy has banned large gatherings and the country is on lock down, the infection is still spreading very rapidly, so work that out will you?

So Boris isn’t a knob. When you become an expert at Behavioural studies, come to learn that we’re not at the peak of this infection spread, banning large gatherings now would be a costly mistake.

Just heard one of the World's foremost experts on pandemics, Dr Dena Grayson say not banning large gatherings now would be a costly mistake. She made no comment on whether Bozo is or isn't a knob though. For me the jury's out on him, he got away with showing no leadership during the floods by saying his presence would detract from the work being done, he won't get away with that again on this. Dr Dena did say she thought the pandemic would move more to the Southern Hemisphere soon and return to us next year when there will be a absolute explosion in numbers of victims, something to look forward to.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Dr Dena did say she thought the pandemic would move more to the Southern Hemisphere soon and return to us next year when there will be a absolute explosion in numbers of victims, something to look forward to.

So much like the Flu does, every year (and probably others as well). Its a wonder we are all still alive.

True story.

Went out for a beer/food tonight to Ricky T’s Bar & Grille in Treasure Island, St Petersburg, Florida - we (four of us) were asked by the barman if we had Coronavirus.

We said "no, why?" - he responded "well, you’re from Europe, they all have it there...".

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Here’s someone who actually knows what they’re talking about. The relevant bit starts around 14 minutes in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g3gh

There’s a lot of analogies but no actual evidence to support it. There’s a risk of apathy?

Originally Posted by jfman

Because nobody has adequately explained why the peak matters - indeed by its very nature intervening prevents a "peak" from happening.

I'm unsure why our Chief Medical Officer is deemed more qualified than that of another country. Another statement inadequately explained.

No it doesn’t prevent it, it can no longer be prevented and it was adequately explained, you just got your usual awkward head on and I don’t have to justify stuff to you.

The behavioural studies and science behind their decisions, suggest banning and quarantining people before the peak has happened would cause people fatigue, they’d eventually get fed up and start to live their lives again and meeting people.

The CMO said the virus pretty much can no longer be contained, too many people have the virus. I trust their word and logic behind their explanations.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

No it doesn’t prevent it, it can no longer be prevented and it was adequately explained, you just got your usual awkward head on and I don’t have to justify stuff to you.

The behavioural studies and science behind their decisions, suggest banning and quarantining people before the peak has happened would cause people fatigue, they’d eventually get fed up and start to live their lives again and meeting people.

The CMO said the virus pretty much can no longer be contained, too many people have the virus. I trust their word and logic behind their explanations.

How do you explain China reporting it’s lowest figures yet?

That suggests it can be contained. What you mean to say is our Government has decided to value the economic impact over the human impact. You have blind trust in our Government - hardly unexpected to readers of this forum I’m sure - but to suggest this is an evidence based decision is ignoring er, evidence.

Countries like Italy will continue to report rises until the full effect of closures flow through the figures. Probably two weeks. Asymptomatic people becoming symptomatic and people they had contact with plus testing catching up with cases. This doesn’t actually mean more people have it - only that we are aware of them.

Originally Posted by jfman

There’s a lot of analogies but no actual evidence to support it. There’s a risk of apathy?

The expert virologist being interviewed at that point is summarising conclusions that arise from the evidence of social modelling as well as modelling of viral transmission.

If you know of a way of transmitting the spreadsheets he’s working from directly into people’s brains via FM, please contact the BBC as I’m sure they’ll be delighted to hear about it.

You’re being obtuse, and you know you are. It’s obvious to all but the wilfully blind (and those who can’t get past their hatred of Tories, or Boris, or both, just because they happen to be the ones acting on advice) that the response to this is being led by the advice and research of world leading experts in the field.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

The expert virologist being interviewed at that point is summarising conclusions that arise from the evidence of social modelling as well as modelling of viral transmission.

If you know of a way of transmitting the spreadsheets he’s working from directly into people’s brains via FM, please contact the BBC as I’m sure they’ll be delighted to hear about it.

You’re being obtuse, and you know you are. It’s obvious to all but the wilfully blind (and those who can’t get past their hatred of Tories, or Boris, or both, just because they happen to be the ones acting on advice) that the response to this is being led by the advice and research of world leading experts in the field.

I don’t think it is obvious. Do other countries lack access to world leading experts?

The BBC, in an effort to justify this, had someone on to say that we are behaviourally different from other cultures. I’d say that self preservation, reducing risk to the self and loved ones, are fairly universal human traits. E.g. look at Premiership footballers. Yesterday happy for half a million fans to attend games in close proximity to complete strangers of unknown health. Today: no playing any more when we’re the ones at risk.

Interestingly the Chief Medical Officer is on Radio 5 just now confirming there’s only capacity to test 2000 people per day. So we lack the capacity to establish a true figure if, as Boris claims, 10 000 people could already have it.

Oddly enough I had a conversation with the head of waste collection at my local council not so long ago after we had a run of missed wheelie bin pickups ... the conversation wandered a bit and we ended up talking about the design of bins and the way routes are plotted and resources allocated.

The most efficient way of doing it, with wheelie bins, is to tell residents to present their bins facing a certain way, and to deploy a vehicle that can lift them directly from the kerb without having to be manually put onto the metal arm. These are very widely used in Europe. The reason most local councils in the UK don’t use this system - and why some who have tried it have abandoned it - is because we are ... guess what ... behaviourally different than a lot of other places. We simply won’t position our bins exactly the way the council tells us to.

As I said, there is social modelling going on here as well as virology. It is simply the case that in the UK if mass gatherings were banned too early, there is a risk people would get bored of official advice and start ignoring it too soon, while the virus was still present in enough people to start a resurgence.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Indeed, it's accepted as inevitable. What makes 8-9 days time the optimum time to do so, when potentially thousands of asymptomatic carriers are out there right now?

If you’d listen to the scientist you’d know. The aim is not to stop people getting it, that is impossible. The aim is to flatten the peak in the distribution curve, so we don’t all get it at once. So you have to anticipate when the peak will be and the introduce all the measures just before that.

Flatten out the peak and reduce the burden on the health system.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

If you’d listen to the scientist you’d know. The aim is not to stop people getting it, that is impossible. The aim is to flatten the peak in the distribution curve, so we don’t all get it at once. So you have to anticipate when the peak will be and the introduce all the measures just before that.

Flatten out the peak and reduce the burden on the health system.

So your interpretation of the current UK Government policy is that everyone will get it at some point and that’s the explanation of why we are making no efforts to contain it?

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by Chris

Oddly enough I had a conversation with the head of waste collection at my local council not so long ago after we had a run of missed wheelie bin pickups ... the conversation wandered a bit and we ended up talking about the design of bins and the way routes are plotted and resources allocated.

The most efficient way of doing it, with wheelie bins, is to tell residents to present their bins facing a certain way, and to deploy a vehicle that can lift them directly from the kerb without having to be manually put onto the metal arm. These are very widely used in Europe. The reason most local councils in the UK don’t use this system - and why some who have tried it have abandoned it - is because we are ... guess what ... behaviourally different than a lot of other places. We simply won’t position our bins exactly the way the council tells us to.

As I said, there is social modelling going on here as well as virology. It is simply the case that in the UK if mass gatherings were banned too early, there is a risk people would get bored of official advice and start ignoring it too soon, while the virus was still present in enough people to start a resurgence.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by jfman

How do you explain China reporting it’s lowest figures yet?

That suggests it can be contained.

But what does China do from now? At some point they have to release the controls, at which point a billion get infected from the rest of the world.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

How do you explain China reporting it’s lowest figures yet?

That suggests it can be contained. What you mean to say is our Government has decided to value the economic impact over the human impact. You have blind trust in our Government - hardly unexpected to readers of this forum I’m sure - but to suggest this is an evidence based decision is ignoring er, evidence.

Countries like Italy will continue to report rises until the full effect of closures flow through the figures. Probably two weeks. Asymptomatic people becoming symptomatic and people they had contact with plus testing catching up with cases. This doesn’t actually mean more people have it - only that we are aware of them.

Both China and Italy reached severe points before implementing any bans. People won't mess about with the Chinese authorities. Do the Chinese have the same amount of big social or sports gatherings?