Brexit (Old)

[Sephiroth]

<removed>

Thats enough.

Stop with the silly personal digs at each other.

May's tour is getting the deal more popular with the public, the 'go with the deal' option has now taken over 'vote it down' in the polls: https://twitter.com/Survation/status...93937412677632

For the Deal: 41%
Against: 38%:
Don't Know: 22%.

It's leading with both Leave and Remain voters.

Narrow margins of course but a big step up from where it was initially.

I think May's calculation that actually no one cares about the detail they just like the idea of this being over is right.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

May's tour is getting the deal more popular with the public, the 'go with the deal' option has now taken over 'vote it down' in the polls: https://twitter.com/Survation/status...93937412677632

For the Deal: 41%
Against: 38%:
Don't Know: 22%.

It's leading with both Leave and Remain voters.

Narrow margins of course but a big step up from where it was initially.

I think May's calculation that actually no one cares about the detail they just like the idea of this being over is right.

Not the public she has to convince though is it ?

At the moment 413 MPs are going to vote against the deal, 226 for. Something big is going to have to change. Labour coming on board seems her only hope.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...y_to_clipboard

No but as said before it doesn't hurt her task if the public are behind it. MPs having to vote against their constituencies is awkward.

I think this might become especially true after what we assume will be the failed first vote. The idea is that the markets will react, no deal will loom and if the public react too then the pressure might be too much....

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

No but as said before it doesn't hurt her task if the public are behind it. MPs having to vote against their constituencies is awkward.

I think this might become especially true after what we assume will be the failed first vote. The idea is that the markets will react, no deal will loom and if the public react too then the pressure might be too much....

the public can't be bothered with details, or the fact this is BRINO, not Brexit at all and make us worse off than now. They just want a straight simplistic Brexit/No
Brexit, Xfactor type decision and it all be over sorted for Xmas and we live happily ever after...

tbh (and this is saying something!) think I trust MPs more !

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

the public can't be bothered with details, or the fact this is BRINO, not Brexit at all and make us worse off than now. They just want a straight simplistic Brexit/No
Brexit, Xfactor type decision and it all be over sorted for Xmas and we live happily ever after...

tbh (and this is saying something!) think I trust MPs more !

Not sure l trust MP's Mr K more as our local MP says one thing and then does exactly the opposite when it comes to voting matters in parliament.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Indeed, if we had any power in this negotiation we would be using it and any suggestion we shouldn’t try to get the best deal for Britain would be getting laughed out of town.

All trade deals require compromise, so if France has a starting point over fish and we want “frictionless trade” we have to ask ourselves what is most important?

Some of the adjectives getting thrown around are massively disproportionate. It’s cold hard capitalist maths.

Yes, agreed.

We shouldn't forget that the withdrawal agreement is simply the stepping stone that we must take if we want pause to breathe before the trade deal is agreed. Macron may go on about fishing rights, but we have already stood up to him on this by not acceding to his demands in the withdrawal agreement, and will continue to do so.

It's this backstop that's the real problem and the silly thing is that it is not needed. I certainly think we should have insisted that it was made clear in the withdrawal agreement that another way of ditching the backstop would be for us to give, say, three months' notice that we are getting out of that arrangement, with all the consequences (such as no continuance of the withdrawal agreement) that may result. We should not be putting ourselves in a position in which the EU can tell us that we are stuck with it.

Philip Hammond been on the TV today, going on about the government analysis of a what a 'no deal' brexit will look like over the next 15 years, all very well he has new talent and can predict what the economy will look like in 15 years time, however, the Treasury routinely gets its annual forecasts wrong. So go figure....

....I have already have, it's business as usual from the Remainers in government, best described as project fear bollocks.

Originally Posted by Mick

Philip Hammond been on the TV today, going on about the government analysis of a what a 'no deal' brexit will look like over the next 15 years, all very well he has new talent and can predict what the economy will look like in 15 years time, however, the Treasury routinely gets its annual forecasts wrong. So go figure....

....I have already have, it's business as usual from the Remainers in government, best described as project fear bollocks.

People were saying the prospect of no deal was 'Project Fear' during the referendum and now people are advocating for it...

Which people ?

[RichardCoulter]

It's just been on the news that every single scenario will lead to us being economically worse off than if we had remained as we were.

Whether correct or not, I wonder if this is the start of softening people up for a U turn to staying in the EU?

---------- Post added at 17:12 ---------- Previous post was at 17:08 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

I thought the analogy was quite good !

The EU could equally call us nasty for demanding rebates, opt outs, special treatment, sending Farage to shout abuse in the EU parliament etc etc. Quite frankly we've been a pain in the backside.

Even if we change our minds now, they might not want us back, don't blame them.

But we haven't actually left yet, so I wouldn't have thought that they could stop us remaining in the EU.

Perhaps they could hold us to our notice of intention to leave??

Someone mentioned that if we decided to stay that we would lose our rebates, why would this be the case?

[denphone]

The Bank of England has now published its Brexit impact assessment.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...9D94CAB8735DFB

The Press Association has snapped these headlines.

The Bank of England has warned the pound would crash, inflation will soar and interest rates would have to rise in the event of a no deal disorderly Brexit.

In the event of a disorderly no deal, no transition Brexit, Britain’s GDP could fall by 8% from its level in the first quarter of 2019, according to analysis of a worst case scenario by the Bank.

The unemployment rate would rise 7.5% and inflation would surge 6.5%. House prices are forecast to decline 30%, while commercial property prices are set to fall 48%. The pound would fall by 25% to less than parity against both the US dollar and the euro.

[pip08456]

Don't forget den, it's "according to analysis of a worst case scenario by the Bank."

It does not mean that is what will actually happen.

[peanut]

Kind of Bexit related. Theresa May and the Holy Grail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q40PWlzKdE4

Well worth a watch.