Football : Season 2011/12

[colin25]

Originally Posted by yesman

An interesting stat....

Liverpool have taken 24 points from the last 20 league games under Dalglish.

Hodgson was only manager for 20 league games. He was sacked for his poor record of picking up just 25 points.

So it must be the Carling Cup that will keep Dalglish in the job ?

Exactly, yes man yesman

[Russ]

Daglish is the Brian Clough of Liverpool. He could get them relegated and the fans would still love him.

[Uncle Peter]

Originally Posted by Russ

Daglish is the Brian Clough of Liverpool. He could get them relegated and the fans would still love him.

Certainly a fair statement.

This season was always going to a dip into untested waters for the club. Such a massive upheaval in the playing staff was a risky gamble as was the moneyball style transfer strategy thus placing boundaries on players who may be selected as transfer targets.

Unfortunately, in a results driven business Kenny comes under scrutiny as the sensationalism hungry media circle like vultures for the next defeat or draw against a relegation zone club as do all of the other attention seeking non-entities who crawl out of the woodwork thinking that they have a valid opinion. The more even handed will see the bigger picture.

[colin25]

Originally Posted by Uncle Peter

Certainly a fair statement.

This season was always going to a dip into untested waters for the club. Such a massive upheaval in the playing staff was a risky gamble as was the moneyball style transfer strategy thus placing boundaries on players who may be selected as transfer targets.

Unfortunately, in a results driven business Kenny comes under scrutiny as the sensationalism hungry media circle like vultures for the next defeat or draw against a relegation zone club as do all of the other attention seeking non-entities who crawl out of the woodwork thinking that they have a valid opinion. The more even handed will see the bigger picture.

What is the big picture? Is Kenny right, and no matter what happens, it will come right eventually?

Or is it that he should have done better, and the club needs a more tactical manager?

Or is it a mixture, no one can guarantee success, and Liverpool must learn that they are not guaranteed success, as Newcastle have learned...leeds...etc

I favour the last one

[denphone]

Originally Posted by colin25

What is the big picture? Is Kenny right, and no matter what happens, it will come right eventually?

Or is it that he should have done better, and the club needs a more tactical manager?

Or is it a mixture, no one can guarantee success, and Liverpool must learn that they are not guaranteed success, as Newcastle have learned...leeds...etc

I favour the last one

Well Colin everybody is entitled to their opinion but l disagree with you as l believe in time the manager and the owners patience will eventually reap Dividends.

[colin25]

Originally Posted by denphone

Well Colin everybody is entitled to their opinion but l disagree with you as l believe in time the manager and the owners patience will eventually reap Dividends.

I know .

But I sometimes think that fans (and club owners) forget, there is only one winner, 19 will always be disappointed.

If you stretch it to a champion's league place...4 happy (though 4th place does have qualifying), 16 sad...of the 16, 3 really sad..they get relegated

[Uncle Peter]

The big picture is that it's a long way back from the brink of administration and after a lengthy period of turmoil some decorum, stability and continuity is required. Nobody said that turning the fortunes of the club around while implementing a model of financial sustainability was going to be easy. Mistakes were made but none that can't be corrected with the correct attitude and mentality on and off the pitch.

Roy Hodgson was seen by some (including his buddies in the media) as the person to have steadied the ship but he was unfortunately for him, in teh wrong place at the wrong time. The fact that he was more adept at putting his foot in his mouth than managing matters on the pitch won him no support. This was ultimately the straw that broke the camel's back and he had to go. Yet more instability and with his (and Purslow's) indescretions in the transfer market this was more unneccessary damage for the current hierarchy to sort out: Offloading the likes of Joe Cole, Poulsen and Konchesky.

Originally Posted by Uncle Peter

This season was always going to a dip into untested waters for the club. Such a massive upheaval in the playing staff was a risky gamble as was the moneyball style transfer strategy thus placing boundaries on players who may be selected as transfer targets.

There is no apparent application of Moneyball principles in Liverpool's transfer strategy. This appears to be a myth born of the fact that their owners applied Moneyball to the Boston Red Sox. However, they do not appear to have applied it at Liverpool.

Moneyball isn't so easily applied to Football anyway. The concept of Moneyball is to get value by carefully analysing statistics on players, 'Sabermetrics', and buying players that offer the best value per measurable quality. This was an easier revolution in Baseball as their statistics are easier to measure because the play is much less fluid. You throw the ball, you hit it, you get on base, you score a run if you can. The play goes again. Each part extremely measurable, with little team dynamics effecting the runner or the person on bat. It was also a bigger revolution in a sport which neglected such statistics for a long time.

Football has long used statistics such as ProZone and did take on board Moneyball principles when they spotted them emerging from Oakland 10 years ago. However football is a lot harder to measure. You can measure assists but that can vary greatly depending upon the pattern of play, the way the team is set up, and the striker they served. You can measure goals but, again, goals can vary widely depending on the set up of the team. A team may be all out attack or funnel their play via a single striker. Last season Arsenal were the former, depending on many players providing goals and assists with players cutting in from the flanks. Doesn't mean Van Persie was rubbish last season. Equally how do effectively measure the impact of full backs or a defensive midfielder? How do you measure a creative playmaker like Xavi?

No, Football finds the application of Moneyball style principles far more difficult. There are a lot of clever people trying and, were possible, ProZone is applied to measure fatigue levels, running speeds, when to time impact subs and when to take them off.

Liverpool are not applying Moneyball principles. It's just a myth. They have done the opposite. Paying over the odds for ineffective players based on their hype and/or form, buying them because they look good. £35 million for Carroll after 6 to 8 months of good form for example. That is actually the antithesis of Moneyball which was designed to find hidden value in unlikely places . Newcastle have a far better claim when it comes to getting value out of the transfer market.

[Uncle Peter]

There are some statistical metrics kicking about with regards to Downing and Adam inparticular for last season (I'll try to find them when I get home). Henderson is a player with considerable technical ability who is struggling to translate this in a game of competitive football. I disagree that a measure of statistical analysis and focus on potential has not been a major factor in our transfers.

I agree that Carroll was probably a panic buy and the funny money involved in the transfer deal has put him under great scrutiny based on the fact that he does not appear to fit into the fluid system of football the club are trying to implement.

Originally Posted by Uncle Peter

There are some statistical metrics kicking about with regards to Downing and Adam inparticular for last season (I'll try to find them when I get home). Henderson is a player with considerable technical ability who is struggling to translate this in a game of competitive football. I disagree that a measure of statistical analysis and focus on potential has not been a major factor in our transfers..

A 'focus on potential' is at the root of a lot of football transfers. Liverpool played roughly £20 million for Henderson and while I agree he has a lot of ability this was evident without the use of statistical metrics. He was capped for England. The price tag reflected that, at £20 million this was money that commands a big name.

I think Downing and Adam are probably prime evidence that the approach isn't working. Henderson will likely become good, Adam not so, Downing will be a decent players but never spectacular and at £20 for a player of 27 you'll never get value out of that transfer.

[Cobbydaler]

Old Trafford atmosphere gets to the Ref again...

---------- Post added at 22:52 ---------- Previous post was at 22:07 ----------

This is great news

Bolton midfielder Fabrice Muamba has been able to sit out of bed in hospital, eat and watch his team-mates on Match of the Day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17512080

Originally Posted by Cobbydaler

This is great news
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17512080

I agree

[thenry]

yea great stuff

Originally Posted by Cobbydaler

Old Trafford atmosphere gets to the Ref again...

what happened, who ref'd

[Cobbydaler]

Originally Posted by thenry

yea great stuff
what happened, who ref'd

Originally Posted by The BBC

And in actual fact United were lucky not to concede a penalty in the 87th minute when Carrick clearly tripped substitute Murphy inside the box.
But referee Michael Oliver waved away their appeals and United hung on for a nervy victory.

Link

[adzii_nufc]

Clear Penalties are denied every week.

Penalty shouts are denied every week in every game.

There is no conspiracy between Man utd and Ref's.