[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Originally Posted by Chris

And now for Comres:

http://order-order.com/2016/06/14/co...lead-crumbles/

Remain 46
Leave 45

Which is not as comforting for Europhiles as you might think, as this time last month Comres had Remain 12 points ahead.

There's a clear direction of travel here, and it is early enough and substantial enough for Leave to have a small but solid lead by Thursday week.

I mean that's a bit better for Remain. Conventionally logic suggests the change option needs to be far ahead by the vote as you said. And it's not a given that the direction is forever one way, if anything the imminent prospect of Leave would cause further attention to what will happen.

If it was only that poll I would be content. Obviously the other polls are terrible though plus I think they're underestimating the Labour Leave vote.

Anyway Osbourne is going high-stakes now:



Very risky.

I can see the logic. It's outlandish enough to draw attention back the economy and try to make it seem to people that there will be personal ramifications in the event of Leave. Several pages ago I was saying that the underlying poll information says people think it will be fine, this will attempt to undermine that.

He will explain it away by saying £30 billion is what we'll lose right away, we need to pay for that. However people will hate it. It might work in the sense it will play on voters minds in the booth but it's going to damage him personally quite a bit IMO although I guess he has nothing to lose at this point.

[Sirius]

Project Fear reaching new heights, Next they will be telling us the sky will fall down

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Wow!

Just "wow!"

Is it not worth a little pain for a better life?

---------- Post added at 07:03 ---------- Previous post was at 06:56 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

You are right it is rubbish .. that Poles stop our "young people" getting jobs. Its a level playing field. There are are jobs and everyone can apply for them .. for now ..

Oh and blaming the Poles for UK youth unemployment is the sort of bilge peddled by "Project Lie"* ..

* I am giving in and am joining the childish name calling just to balance things up a bit

A Level playing field and anyone can apply indeed. However, we know the Pols are prepared to work for less so in all honesty, who are you going to employ if you had a business?

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

A Level playing field and anyone can apply indeed. However, we know the Pols are prepared to work for less so in all honesty, who are you going to employ if you had a business?

If you ignore the fact that the employer is a British one and you would like to think they should pay a "fair" wage for UK citizens, the outcome of your logic is that prices rise.

No immigrants that will "work for less" --> higher wages (by definition) paid to "British" workers --> higher prices

Originally Posted by Big Brian

A Level playing field and anyone can apply indeed. However, we know the Pols are prepared to work for less so in all honesty, who are you going to employ if you had a business?

Doesn't quite work like that .Lots of Poles used to work on the sites with me and no way would they take less pay than the indigenous workers doing the same job .Maybe that would be true on the labour black market but not in the legitimate market

---------- Post added at 08:56 ---------- Previous post was at 08:39 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Very risky.

I can see the logic. It's outlandish enough to draw attention back the economy and try to make it seem to people that there will be personal ramifications in the event of Leave. Several pages ago I was saying that the underlying poll information says people think it will be fine, this will attempt to undermine that.

He will explain it away by saying £30 billion is what we'll lose right away, we need to pay for that. However people will hate it. It might work in the sense it will play on voters minds in the booth but it's going to damage him personally quite a bit IMO although I guess he has nothing to lose at this point.

It's utterly disgraceful for Osborne to threaten voters like that

---------- Post added at 09:00 ---------- Previous post was at 08:56 ----------

Vote leave have issued a road map of what should be done in the event of a leave vote

Vote Leave said over subsequent sessions of Parliament it wanted to introduce:

Finance Bill - This would abolish the 5% rate of VAT on household energy bills by amending the Value Added Tax Act 1994. It would be paid for by savings from the UK's contributions to the EU budget, Vote Leave said

National Health Service (Funding Target) Bill - The NHS would receive a £100m per week real-terms cash "transfusion", to be paid for by savings from leaving the EU

Asylum and Immigration Control Bill - "To end the automatic right of all EU citizens to enter the UK"

Free Trade Bill - The UK leaves the EU's "common commercial policy" to "restore the UK government's power to control its own trade policy"

European Communities Act 1972 (Repeal) Bill - The European Communities Act 1972, "the legal basis for the supremacy of EU law in the UK", will be repealed. "The EU Treaties will cease to form part of UK law and the European Court's jurisdiction over the UK will end," said Vote Leave.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36534802.

So they have threatened pensioners and working people now can they get any lower I really don't think when people voted in the last general election they knew what a spineless bunch they were voting in.

[denphone]

Never be taken in by politicians bearing gifts and promises as you are likely to find they have a habit of never materialising..

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

So they have threatened pensioners and working people now can they get any lower I really don't think when people voted in the last general election they knew what a spineless bunch they were voting in.

I'm starting to think that in the event of a leave vote we should have a General Election because it is becoming clear that Cameron and Osborne will make it as hard as possible to leave the EU ,they will drag out negotiations for years and invoke article 50 which would again drag negotiations on for years

[Osem]

Osborne's threats just go to show the depths the remainers will now go to. Unless the UK's fundamentals have changed since February, how on Earth can he reconcile this latest nonsense with what his PM was saying just a few months ago. At no point did they enter into the EU negotiations telling us that they regardless of what they achieved, if we were to leave the EU there'd be a need for massive tax increases or any number of the other catastrophes they've since predicted. Either they've only just worked it all out or they're lying in order to influence the vote and I know which I suspect. I feel they've lost the plot and their campaign has descended into rabid threats. Thankfully a large number of Tory MP's have already confirmed they'd vote against any such move by Osborne but that doesn't diminish the mistake I believe he's just made. If their plan was to issue a new headline-grabbing threat every day then I think they're already scraping the barrel.

Despite being keen for us to get out of the EU, I am fully aware that doing so would not be a bed of roses and will certainly throw up huge challenges, albeit IMHO far less serious problems than remaining in a failing, unreformable club. I acknowledge that there are benefits to remaining inside the EU, especially, if it were able to be reformed, I just don't believe it can be and the intransigence shown by them in earlier this year in the face of the 2nd largest contributor to the club leaving is my evidence.

Regardless of the result of the vote, I think Cameron and Osborne are finished. I can't see many Tories feeling that Osborne could now ever be a credible party leader and I think there'll be a leadership challenge. This massively important issue could and should have been handled so very differently and had HMG had the confidence to avoid the worst of the scaremongering and made their case whilst acknowledging even a few of the benefits of getting out, I feel people would have had a lot more respect for them. As it is, they've clearly misled us about being even the slightest bit open minded prior to the renegotiations and must already have been fully committed to staying in under any foreseeable circumstances. As such their stance has been a complete sham from day one.

Already 57 Tory MPs have signed a letter promising to vote down Osborne's Brexit-revenge budget, if he were stupid enough to present it to Parliament. Apparently he's been on the Today programme this morning claiming he could rely on Labour votes to get it through. I'm not sure why he thinks Corbyn would choose to prop up a Tory government when he had a gold-plated opportunity to bring it down.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Published by the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE.

I'll just leave these here.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/DP0462.pdf



http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/about/finance.asp





Part of those contracts is not to harm the reputation of the EU.

I used to have EU funding in a previous job and yes, the contract does say you cannot harm the reputation of the European Union but it goes further to state how this might manifest itself - basically, do not go on a drugs or killing spree on EU funds. This is normal for all grants, EU or otherwise. Do you have information on the grants for the CEP that says something different?

[Gavin78]

The EU ultimately wants to be one nation there wont be spain or france or greece it will be one nation ruled by a president/prime minister and elected governments from each region


I'm sure Rome has been down this road before and how well did that work out?

[pip08456]

So a saving of £8.5 billion would require a tax increase?

Originally Posted by Chris

Already 57 Tory MPs have signed a letter promising to vote down Osborne's Brexit-revenge budget, if he were stupid enough to present it to Parliament. Apparently he's been on the Today programme this morning claiming he could rely on Labour votes to get it through. I'm not sure why he thinks Corbyn would choose to prop up a Tory government when he had a gold-plated opportunity to bring it down.

He'll be finished in the event of Brexit and he knows it. This is a gesture to get the conversation back onto the economy and he is hoping to get the question asked of Leave: "Well, that would you do?" As long as people are talking about how the migrate the effects of Leaving then that keeps the topic on the idea there will be effects.

Leave today have added the scrapping of 5% VAT on fuel bills onto of the money to the NHS as well as protecting all the money back from the EU. If Osborne is getting ridiculous it's being matched from Leave. Anytime people express concern about a specific area of public life Leave cuts another check for that sector. Farmers? more money! Science? more money! Health? more money! Universities? more money! Taxes? Less taxes! Today they're even claiming a boost to the stock market the day after £20 billion was wiped off.

That said I don't think Osborne's tactic will work at this point. It's just a desperate last throw of the dice.
---------- Post added at 10:12 ---------- Previous post was at 10:11 ----------

[/COLOR]

Originally Posted by pip08456

So a saving of £8.5 billion would require a tax increase?

It's based on the idea the economy will slow or enter recession.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by Chris

Apparently he's been on the Today programme this morning claiming he could rely on Labour votes to get it through. I'm not sure why he thinks Corbyn would choose to prop up a Tory government when he had a gold-plated opportunity to bring it down.

We all know Corbyn is incompetent but I don't think he would vote for huge tax rises and slashing the NHS budget.