Russia has invaded Ukraine

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

If it was Ukraine, though, good on them. Germany’s early response to all this was spineless in the extreme, and having put their head in a lion’s mouth by signing up to Nordstream 2 while everyone else was warning them not to was stupid. I wish there was a word for the sense of satisfaction you get from watching it all unravel.

It was daring operation, undertaken by privateers but sanctioned by the military, they’ll make a movie about it one day I’m sure

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas...=1000666022300

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Chris

I wish there was a word for the sense of satisfaction you get from watching it all unravel.

Schadenfreude?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Is this

Not accurate?

It's certainly at odds with Chris's graph which shows US imports ahead of those from Russia.

My main concern is that you can't extrapolate a trend from one data point, you need several quarters to do so. And when you do this you get an entirely different picture.

And the interviews and quotes are from Russia and Hungary. There's no quotes from other countries and there's no attempt to get beneath the statistics and discover if it's a blip or a trend. They're just taking this as an opportunity to knock the EU and the West.

It could have made the basis of a fascinating article as to whether this is a blip or a trend but instead it was used as the basis of pro-Russian propaganda.

Originally Posted by Chris

..snippety snip snip...

Germany’s early response to all this was spineless in the extreme, and having put their head in a lion’s mouth by signing up to Nordstream 2 while everyone else was warning them not to was stupid. I wish there was a word for the sense of satisfaction you get from watching it all unravel.

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Schadenfreude?

[1andrew1]

Donald Trump pushes back Ukraine war deadline in sign of support for Kyiv

US president-elect speaks of six months to end conflict, after pledging to solve it in ‘24 hours’ from taking office

US president-elect Donald Trump has pushed back his campaign pledge to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” to several months, in a shift European partners have interpreted as a sign that his administration will not immediately abandon support for Kyiv.

Two European officials told the Financial Times that discussions with Trump’s incoming team in recent weeks revealed they had not yet decided on how to solve the conflict, and that support to Ukraine would continue after the US president’s inauguration on January 20.

“The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach,” said one of the officials.

https://www.ft.com/content/989dc02e-...0-0b32e098c410

You mean his mouth made boasts he cant actually perform in reality ... what a surprise.

[RichardCoulter]

Just been on the BBC 1PM news that, due to the cold weather, Centrica say that the UK now only has a weeks worth of gas left in storage.

Chris O'Shea, their Chief Executive, said:

The UK's gas storage levels are concerningly low. We are an outlier from the rest of Europe when it comes to the role

Is he blaming Brexit here? No mention of the current arrangements in obtaining gas from Russia having any impact, which must surely come into play.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Just been on the BBC 1PM news that, due to the cold weather, Centrica say that the UK now only has a weeks worth of gas left in storage.

Chris O'Shea, their Chief Executive, said:



Is he blaming Brexit here? No mention of the current arrangements in obtaining gas from Russia having any impact, which must surely come into play.

No. In fact, without gas coming via pipeline from Russia the UK has a strategic advantage over continental Europe, because we have extensive facilities for bringing LNG ashore at Milford Haven in south west Wales. Our problem arises from the decision in 2017 to close strategic undersea gas storage off the Yorkshire coast. Its life could have been extended with government investment but the government refused. When we last had a serious gas supply crunch in 2021 plans were announced to reopen it. It has only partially reopened.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Chris

No. In fact, without gas coming via pipeline from Russia the UK has a strategic advantage over continental Europe, because we have extensive facilities for bringing LNG ashore at Milford Haven in south west Wales. Our problem arises from the decision in 2017 to close strategic undersea gas storage off the Yorkshire coast. Its life could have been extended with government investment but the government refused. When we last had a serious gas supply crunch in 2021 plans were announced to reopen it. It has only partially reopened.

Thanks, the Government has since put out an announcement that it has strategies in place to deal with this, maybe this includes utilising the facility that you mention even more??

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Thanks, the Government has since put out an announcement that it has strategies in place to deal with this, maybe this includes utilising the facility that you mention even more??

More likely it involves restricting commercial gas supply to prioritise domestic needs.

If things got extra serious they could also cut gas transit from Milford Haven to the Continent and retain whatever comes ashore in the UK for UK use. But that would be a very extreme step because it would be interfering in commercial arrangements affecting our friends and allies overseas. Not all the gas that comes ashore at Milford Haven is purchased by, or for use in, the UK. Much of it flows across south Wales and the south of England, under the Channel and into Europe.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

More likely it involves restricting commercial gas supply to prioritise domestic needs.

If things got extra serious they could also cut gas transit from Milford Haven to the Continent and retain whatever comes ashore in the UK for UK use. But that would be a very extreme step because it would be interfering in commercial arrangements affecting our friends and allies overseas. Not all the gas that comes ashore at Milford Haven is purchased by, or for use in, the UK. Much of it flows across south Wales and the south of England, under the Channel and into Europe.

luckily i have a multifuel stove so it'll burn just about anything
other peoples fences /garden furniture/sheds/trees.......

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

luckily i have a multifuel stove so it'll burn just about anything
other peoples fences /garden furniture/sheds/trees.......

Boats...

[thenry]

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=901

Russia responds to Trump threat

Russia's deputy envoy to the United Nations has responded to Donald Trump's economic threats against Moscow.

Earlier, the US president said he would impose tariffs and sanctions "if we don't make a 'deal' and soon".

Now, Dmitry Polyanskiy has said the Kremlin would need to see what Trump thinks a deal comprises of before proceeding.

"It's not merely the question of ending the war," Polyanskiy told Reuters.

"It's first and foremost the question of addressing root causes of Ukrainian crisis."

He continued: "So we have to see what does the 'deal' mean in President Trump's understanding. He is not responsible for what the US has been doing in Ukraine since 2014, making it 'anti-Russia' and preparing for the war with us, but it is in his power now to stop this malicious policy."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-r...#liveblog-body

Hmmm... How likely is it that Trump agrees. That 24hrs is looking likely but not before his second term begun

Trump has been in the business of saying what he needs to say to his various client groups in order to get elected. Now he’s got elected he’s in the business of doing what he needs to do in order to feather his own nest. He’s a property tycoon, not a politician. Everything is a deal, everything is about his reputation.

What he is not is an ideologue. So notwithstanding any of the Russian talking points the ideologues surrounding him have been parroting, the only way Trump is ever going to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war is in a way that either makes money or enhances his reputation (or both). Not long ago Trump probably assumed the best way to enhance his reputation was to cosy up to Putin, who he has long regarded as his sort of guy, tough and no-nonsense. The problem now is that Putin is weak and getting weaker. So what does Trump do? I suspect Trump now calculates that the best way for Trump to benefit is for him to put the boot into Putin. And his statement this afternoon would very much line up with that suspicion.

Originally Posted by Chris

Trump has been in the business of saying what he needs to say to his various client groups in order to get elected. Now he’s got elected he’s in the business of doing what he needs to do in order to feather his own nest. He’s a property tycoon, not a politician. Everything is a deal, everything is about his reputation.

What he is not is an ideologue. So notwithstanding any of the Russian talking points the ideologues surrounding him have been parroting, the only way Trump is ever going to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war is in a way that either makes money or enhances his reputation (or both). Not long ago Trump probably assumed the best way to enhance his reputation was to cosy up to Putin, who he has long regarded as his sort of guy, tough and no-nonsense. The problem now is that Putin is weak and getting weaker. So what does Trump do? I suspect Trump now calculates that the best way for Trump to benefit is for him to put the boot into Putin. And his statement this afternoon would very much line up with that suspicion.

Agree completely.