Brexit discussion

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

TFR was 1.79 in 2016 (latest stats available).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...enceofmotheruk



1956, so I should (on average) live to 82 (another 21 years, or 16 years of pension for 49 years of working)

Well, it's fiscal madness for anyone to expect to live longer and expect the same pension, so working for 40-45 years and expecting a pension to pay out for 30-35 years isn't going to happen - it's already started, as my pension age has gone from 65 to 66, and my wife's from 60-66; I would imagine in about 35-40 years time, that will increase to around 70 (it's planned to rise to 68 between 2037 and 2039). On the bright side, you will (on average) be living longer, so swings and roundabouts.

The FT forecasts there will be 2.9 workers for every 1 retiree by 2050.

https://www.ft.com/content/fda8675a-...a-00144feab7de

Actually life expectancy has started to fall in this country (I know you love a fact Hugh !)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...g-hardest-hit/
You can speculate as to the reasons why, the NHS being run into the ground by the Govt. might just be a factor.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by Mick

Only one poll mattered and that was the official one, almost two years ago now.

You know after the 2004 Presidential election, where George W Bush won (beat Kerry), the Iraqis had their national elections in 2005 (January I believe). It was their first ever "free and fair" election (post Saddam). The war had been going through some bad news cycles back home for the US and Bush so a reporter asked him "do you feel like the poll validated your policy ; do you feel vindicated?"

Bush replied and said that the only poll he cared about was the one in the fall of 04. I thought that his response was slightly crass to be honest and he could have shown some love for the millions of Iraqis who dipped their fingers into purple dye.

None the less though, his statement was accurate for his own political system ; Presidents are term tied / limited and he had won re-election. There was no more for him to win so that argument holds water.

In your case though, you keep saying that it is the one poll that mattered only it isn't just that, is it? There is still the future relationship etc (existing debt / monies owed and so on) but it is more than that. Every person used their democratic vote under our parliamentary system to vote for a member of parliament, every one of them gets a say to vote on the final deal. If they vote no and the UK does not accept the deal, is that not then the most important vote all of a sudden?

If a referendum on the final deal is agreed to, is that not the poll / vote that matters?

If a second referendum is held, is that not the vote that matters?

If the UK wishes to rejoin the EU is it not the vote to rejoin that becomes the most important?

In a binding election with a finite ending and a term limit it is one thing to gloat that you won ; in the US once the electors vote and the House of Representatives affirms that is that. Once a President is sworn in that ends that unless he leaves office (by whatever means) but either way, the term is fixed.

With the EU vote it is nothing of the sort - all of it is fluid per the discretion of UK leaders / the EU / judges on either side etc etc.

So as much as the official poll won out a couple years ago (to leave) there is nothing to stop more and more official polls, on the terms that we leave / the option to stay in / to rejoin and on and on.

Playing the "we won" card becomes rather obsolete in a scenario where there are countless options, to win back.

... all of which is to ignore the elephant in the room, which is that sovereignty rests with the Crown-in-Parliament and everything short of that is, ultimately, only advisory in nature.

Our system doesn’t rest on a written constitution, it has evolved over a millennium and referendums are a very recent and novel imposition on it. It isn’t surprising that nobody quite understands exactly how a referendum result fits into the bigger picture.

[Chloé Palmas]

Oh sure, I get that.

The problem is that politicians can't on the one hand say "your vote wasn't binding because we have a Westminster system of politics where everything is fluid / malleable, so suck it up we're not leaving" but then on the other hand say to the voter "but it's time for the next election so you know that useless vote of yours, come throw it my way so I can represent you again".

As much as nobody really cares about the will of the people, it is an entirely difficult thing to say in public unless you plan on retiring / never seeking their vote again.

So then you need to start getting creative, like:

"Democracy is so important and we value your vote so very much, along with your opinion, that we are going to give you a vote on the final deal, too!"

Brexit means Brexit, right?

Then the will of the people / Democracy means just that - they should get a vote on it all in the hope that they scupper it.

Democracy is just an excuse.

And ultimately it boils down to that:

Excuses mean excuses.

It was non binding alright - just an advisory poll but ultimately another advisory poll may be the only way out of this fiasco in which politicians can save face / still look to get re-elected.

Or they could all retire I suppose.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

Or they could all retire I suppose.

Could we have a vote on that?

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

Oh sure, I get that.

The problem is that politicians can't on the one hand say "your vote wasn't binding because we have a Westminster system of politics where everything is fluid / malleable, so suck it up we're not leaving" but then on the other hand say to the voter "but it's time for the next election so you know that useless vote of yours, come throw it my way so I can represent you again".

As much as nobody really cares about the will of the people, it is an entirely difficult thing to say in public unless you plan on retiring / never seeking their vote again.

So then you need to start getting creative, like:

"Democracy is so important and we value your vote so very much, along with your opinion, that we are going to give you a vote on the final deal, too!"

Brexit means Brexit, right?

Then the will of the people / Democracy means just that - they should get a vote on it all in the hope that they scupper it.

Democracy is just an excuse.

And ultimately it boils down to that:

Excuses mean excuses.

It was non binding alright - just an advisory poll but ultimately another advisory poll may be the only way out of this fiasco in which politicians can save face / still look to get re-elected.

Or they could all retire I suppose.

It is not a fiasco leaving the EU.

And how many polls do we get until those who don't like the result get what they want? - Democracy does not work that way, I stand by what I said, one poll mattered and we are leaving, as it should be. You cannot have another poll every couple of years.

The vote was binary, it was either leave or remain and no where in-between - leave won, so leave we must. That's Democracy and that is not an excuse either.

This Poll image Says it all really... and this is a poll created by a Remainer. But dang, look at how many flips from Remain to leave there are vs. Leave to Remain.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by Carth

Could we have a vote on that?

I am just being an ass about this, but in theory we do, through our elected representatives.

I.e. after the referendum there was a GE and we each had a vote for member of parliament - they each get a deciding vote on the end bill.

We get a vote that way I suppose.

Though the Lib Dems have been proposing a referendum on the final deal...

Would you like that as a possible way for the people to approve / disapprove of the deal?

---------- Post added at 03:29 ---------- Previous post was at 03:18 ----------

Originally Posted by Mick

It is not a fiasco leaving the EU.

It is hardly going well, is it?

And how many polls do we get until those who don't like the result get what they want? - Democracy does not work that way, I stand by what I said, one poll mattered and we are leaving, as it should be. You cannot have another poll every couple of years.

The vote was binary, it was either leave or remain and no where in-between - leave won, so leave we must. That's Democracy and that is not an excuse either.

True, it was just a rather flippant response to your "Democracy won at the end of the day"...i.e. we can't have a poll every couple years, can we?

Kind of like two men running from a bear - no-one has to run faster than the bear. They just have to run faster than the other man....

In an ideal world, we wouldn't need a poll every other year. Just one until the side that you were backing, won. You are already at that place but I feel like you actually feel like leaving is the correct thing to do, on principle. I just took umbrage at the whole it is "Democracy" at work line - if you back it as a matter of principle then to hell with what the people think! You think that leaving the EU is the right thing to do? If the people voted remain, you would still think that leaving was the right thing to do, right? Even if a majority of people voted to leave or remain, it won't change many opinion of ideologues / those that are polarized either way and that is why I asked what your opinion on a future relationship should be. (Not just Trade, but security / space exploration / travel and migration / law and justice, etc etc etc).

Again, I took issue with your calling it a banal question which is why I didn't ask any further.

Though I do stand by my original statement of this not going well. You say that it is not a fiasco...fine, how would you describe the progress of the process though. Because the word excruciating comes to mind.

[Stephen]

Originally Posted by Mick

It is not a fiasco leaving the EU.

And how many polls do we get until those who don't like the result get what they want? - Democracy does not work that way, I stand by what I said, one poll mattered and we are leaving, as it should be. You cannot have another poll every couple of years.

The vote was binary, it was either leave or remain and no where in-between - leave won, so leave we must. That's Democracy and that is not an excuse either.

We had a referendum.

A poll can happen at anytime and is just used as a marker to gain an idea of people's thoughts.

[Mr K]

Well it's foreign fruit we'll be eating this summer, whilst ours rots in the fields #Brexit

European fruit pickers shun Britain - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44230865

[1andrew1]

Not often I agree with JC but I think he's nailed it here!

Jeremy Corbyn has compared Theresa May's handling of Brexit with the "shambles" in the UK railways as they clashed at Prime Minister's Questions.
The Labour leader said key documents, including the blueprint for future EU relations, had been "delayed" while customs proposals had been "cancelled".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44381294
The Government is certainly giving Northern Rail, Thameslink and TSB a run in the incompetence stakes!

Couple of Brexit developments to note:

1) Theresa May is engaged in a serious row with David Davis, Brexit secretary, over claims that she wants to tie Britain to the EU customs union indefinitely as part of a “backstop” plan on the Irish border. He doesn't like the indefinite nature of the backstop
https://www.ft.com/content/bb75ccba-...3-0c230fa67aec

2) UK military secondments to EU to cease after Brexit.
https://www.ft.com/content/ab758f42-...b-4acfcfb08c11

3) Government warned British cars 'won't qualify for free trade deals' after Brexit

The government, in speeches and through its "Automotive Council", has repeatedly said that 44% of the value of UK cars is "local content".
This would suggest that post-Brexit, the UK is not so far away from the thresholds of 55%-60% required to qualify for tariff-free trade in a typical trade deal.
But, since the beginning of the year, the car industry has explicitly told the government, including at roundtables in Downing Street in the presence of the PM, that these numbers hugely overstate the position that is relevant for trade deals under so-called "rules of origin" regulations.
This means that in the absence of special content deals, the bulk of UK assembled cars would not qualify for tariff-free treatment under a typical free trade deal...
This news shows that not only, as Sky News revealed yesterday, are European governments advising European export manufacturers to shun British parts, but that some of the marquee products from Britain would not qualify as "made in Britain" for free trade purposes.

https://news.sky.com/story/governmen...rexit-11396219

Originally Posted by Mick

This Poll image Says it all really... and this is a poll created by a Remainer. But dang, look at how many flips from Remain to leave there are vs. Leave to Remain.

Isn't that a Twitter poll? If you make a point of ignoring polls where they're conducted by professionals who get a representative sample it's a bit much to then cite a Twitter poll.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Mick

<large image>

This Poll image Says it all really... and this is a poll created by a Remainer. But dang, look at how many flips from Remain to leave there are vs. Leave to Remain.

Is it possible to also include a link to the original content? It is always informative to see the origin and what context the information is presented in.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Isn't that a Twitter poll? If you make a point of ignoring polls where they're conducted by professionals who get a representative sample it's a bit much to then cite a Twitter poll.

That poll's also flawed in many ways from the biased phrasing through to its easy manipulation. But a key flaw is that the main people who have changed their minds have been the don't-knows and there's not an option for that category.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Well it's foreign fruit we'll be eating this summer, whilst ours rots in the fields #Brexit

European fruit pickers shun Britain - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44230865

This has been forecast before but not with so much clarity. A perceptive quote from a Romanian:

"The English pick and choose what they want to do and leave the harder jobs for the foreigners," he told BBC News.

"There are a lot of English people that could work the fields and not let the fruit rot. That's why Brexit to me was really strange because the foreigners are coming to do the hard jobs and the low-paid jobs - surely you want them to stay."