[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Except you, obviously, and those who agree with you...

I always find it interesting when people disparage others who hold different views on topics with ad hominem attacks, and denigrate others' intellectual or decision-making capabilities - heaven forbid it could be they who might not have an open mind or be capable of learning new things that may change their views...

When has the public ever voted anyway Rupert Murdoch didn't want them to vote ? (e.g pro Blair, pro Cameron, anti--Scottish Independence).

Although initially eurosceptic he's changed his mind and is now very much pro-Europe. To be fair on this occasion he's right. EU withdrawal would be a disaster for the British economy which as a business man he now realises.

You can be sure all his media outlets will have a combined strategy with the Govt. to make the public's mind up for them. A lot of the people don't have an opinion or know very little about the issues and are therefore easily swayed, particularly by scare stories about their own prosperity.

Originally Posted by Mr K

When has the public ever voted anyway Rupert Murdoch didn't want them to vote ? (e.g pro Blair, pro Cameron, anti--Scottish Independence).

I think you might have this the wrong way around. Did it occur to you that rather than the population mindlessly doing following their newspaper The Sun is actually chasing their readership? The Sun is very good at reading the public mood.

Everyone blames the media now anyway. It's the default explanation for everyone as to why their particular political ideology hasn't done well. Labour believe the Murdoch press is costing them, The Conservatives believe the BBC/Guardian is after them, UKIP believe the political correct 'media classes' are conspiring against them, the SNP believe the Westminster media establishment are ganging up against them. Politicians love it because it gives them a ready made rebuttal to any negative story in the press, it isn't that they're wrong it's that the media is biased.

It's the exact same process as conspiracy theories. It's a lazy dismissal of inconvenient facts (i.e actual votes) that challenge their world view. You're not wrong, you didn't lose, other malevolent forces were conspiring against you. It will the same for the EU referendum. If we leave it will the fault of the Murdoch press and the Government stooges at the BBC or if we stay it will the fault of the liberal Guardian the Europhile BBC. I can tell who isn't wrong though and that will the supporters of both sides either of which would have won had the otherside not been so bloody stupid!

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think you might have this the wrong way around. Did it occur to you that rather than the population mindlessly doing following their newspaper The Sun is actually chasing their readership? The Sun is very good at reading the public mood.

FORGET demands — David Cameron’s approach to EU renegotiation amounts to nothing more than whistling in the dark.

His grand plan to curb immigration — withholding in-work benefits from EU migrants — would have had minimal impact to start with.

Now it is a busted flush.

Instead he hopes someone else will toss a better idea across the table at a Brussels dinner on Thursday.

It is clear Mr Cameron was never going to fight for what voters really want — control of Britain’s borders.

But we didn’t think his efforts would be quite so gutless.

Todays editorial

Is this the Sun faithfully following Murdoch on a pro-EU stance or as Damien suggests its readerships opinions?

Originally Posted by Mr K

When has the public ever voted anyway Rupert Murdoch didn't want them to vote ? (e.g pro Blair, pro Cameron, anti--Scottish Independence).

Although initially eurosceptic he's changed his mind and is now very much pro-Europe. To be fair on this occasion he's right. EU withdrawal would be a disaster for the British economy which as a business man he now realises.

You can be sure all his media outlets will have a combined strategy with the Govt. to make the public's mind up for them. A lot of the people don't have an opinion or know very little about the issues and are therefore easily swayed, particularly by scare stories about their own prosperity.

Channel 4 Factcheck

Among all voters, there was a swing from Labour to Conservative of about 5 per cent between 2005 and 2010. But among Sun readers the swing was a massive 13.5 per cent.

This sounds like impressive evidence of the sway the Sun holds over its readers.

But Sir Robert Worcester from the LSE notes that most of the swing – 12.5 per centage points – had already happened before the Sun declared its support for David Cameron.

That makes it look very much like the editors were being led by the readers, not the other way round...

...The verdict

We’ll probably never be able to say decisively how much newspapers influence their readers. Often, readers themselves say they don’t know.

In-depth analysis of the Sun’s influence on the 1992 election is lacking, although the fact that Labour were slightly ahead in the polls when the newspaper launched its famous attack on Neil Kinnock was unusually brave.

The 1997 election has been studied extensively and analysis suggests the Sun’s switch of support did not decisively swing the vote for Tony Blair.

It’s interesting to note that Sun readers did swing back to the Conservatives in very large numbers in 2010, though it’s difficult to know what to make of this.

The fact that most of the change in support happened before the paper came out for Cameron suggests that newspapers may follow the opinions of their readers rather than trying to dictate them.

[heero_yuy]

BRITS should be told there is “no certainty” that any of David Cameron’s EU renegotiations will come into effect, senior MPs warn today.

Even if the PM succeeds in winning his demands, many will need treaty change and so could be voted down by other nations’ referendums.

The damning verdict on Mr Cameron’s package comes in a report by the Commons’ European Scrutiny Committee today.

It is the latest blow to his already stalled bid to redraw Britain’s membership. Committee chairman and Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash said: “Whatever the promises made in the negotiations, there is no certainty they will be delivered to the British.”

Can't see the Poles and the other East Europeans giving up the British teat in a hurry.

Eurosceptic Tory MP Craig Mackinlay said: “What I can’t understand is that EU leaders don’t realise Britain’s on the cusp of an EU exit. It really is 50/50.”

Indeed.

Source linky

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Mr K

To be fair on this occasion he's right. EU withdrawal would be a disaster for the British economy which as a business man he now realises.

Evidence for that it would be a disaster please.

It may certainly harm big business, however this may also be more than offset by increasing the competitiveness of small businesses - purely domestic businesses will no longer have to adhere to the same standards as those larger businesses exporting to the EU, with extensive legal departments to ensure they adhere to the mass of red tape.

I can find you businessmen who work in more competitive industries and believe that the impact of Brexit would be neutral at worst to their own operations.

EDIT: You can use the CBI as an example if you like, but do bear in mind that of their alleged 190,000 members some 55,000 are farmers who are members of the NFU, which is affiliated to the CBI. If I say Common Agricultural Policy does that ring any alarm bells as far as their bias may go? The NFU are just one of the affiliated trade bodies all of whose members the CBI claims for its own.

The CBI is estimated to represent no more than 2,300 actual businesses in the UK. Less than 1 in 200. In addition their own position was for EMU / the Euro and they ensured they selected the cohorts they surveyed at that time to support their own position. That turned out well. There are plenty of indications they are doing the same again regarding Brexit.

We desperately either need to dive head-long into integration or to leave. The status quo won't do. There is no desire for change of the status quo, the desire is for ever-closer union and that's not changing. There's considerable evidence that ever-closer union isn't going to be viable and it's growing on a weekly basis - see the migration farce as Germany tried to fix its demographic problems in one fell swoop, ended up overwhelmed, and is now trying to strong-arm the rest of the EU to compensate for its mistake.

[Osem]

Wish it was Thatcher conducting the negotiations - can you imagine Merkel and Maggie in a cat fight...


Given that things within the EU aren't likely to improve any time soon and seem to be steadily getting worse, I'm wondering what the 'In' brigade have to gain by delaying the vote.?

(mind you, you'd have to be deluded to support the EU in its current form so that might explain it...)

[Mr K]

John Major has said warned of the dangers of leaving the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...tter-what.html
He doesn't think much of Camerons 'negotiations' either; Dave will get sweet nothing and pretend he has as we all know.
Just about every mainstream politician (apart from the Tory swivel eyed loon wing) and businessman/woman will be campaigning to stay in. The outcome is a foregone conclusion and a massive waste of time. The grass may seem greener elsewhere but it rarely is. The Sun etc, maybe currying favour with their 'readership' at the moment but when it comes to it, they'll do what Rupert says. The public are scared of change and uncertainty, usually the status quo prevails (e.g. Scottish Referendum).

Can't stop thinking of JM's Spitting Image every time he pops up in the media..
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[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Osem

Wish it was Thatcher conducting the negotiations - can you imagine Merkel and Maggie in a cat fight...

Why did i think of jello as soon as i read that

[Osem]

David Cameron to announce that UK ministers will be allowed to campaign for either side ahead of the EU referendum

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35230959

Can't really see how he could have done anything else.

[roughbeast]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Todays editorial

Is this the Sun faithfully following Murdoch on a pro-EU stance or as Damien suggests its readerships opinions?

Definitely the Sun following Murdoch on an anti-EU stance.

---------- Post added at 13:20 ---------- Previous post was at 12:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

John Major has said warned of the dangers of leaving the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...tter-what.html
He doesn't think much of Camerons 'negotiations' either; Dave will get sweet nothing and pretend he has as we all know.
Just about every mainstream politician (apart from the Tory swivel eyed loon wing) and businessman/woman will be campaigning to stay in. The outcome is a foregone conclusion and a massive waste of time. The grass may seem greener elsewhere but it rarely is. The Sun etc, maybe currying favour with their 'readership' at the moment but when it comes to it, they'll do what Rupert says. The public are scared of change and uncertainty, usually the status quo prevails (e.g. Scottish Referendum).

Can't stop thinking of JM's Spitting Image every time he pops up in the media..

I almost entirely agree with you there. However, there are some factors that may just push enough folk one way or the other enough to make a difference.

The issue of immigration and refugees, if used skillfully by the anti-EU side, could be the deciding factor. Whilst economies are still struggling and whilst national, civic and family budgets are under pressure the anti-EU camp can play the immigration card at will. This is an easy scapegoat especially with so many migrants on the move. Statistics pointing to the economic benefits of immigration may not be enough against gut feelings that immigrants and refugees bring unacceptable social change or may even affect security. ISIS could not have come at a worse time for the EU and ISIS know that.

On the other hand, the anti-EU side make much of the opportunities for trade with non-EU countries, with us, independent of the EU, being able to form our own trade alliances. The current news on global trade and the slowing down of eastern and south American economies makes this a less attractive proposition.* Trade with our slowly recovering EU neighbours seems attractive all of a sudden as does the EU clout in securing trade deals, not least those with the recovering USA. These facts, if well communicated by the pro-EU side, could well favour us voting to stay in.

Interesting times.

* Incidentally the UKIP insistence that we should cut aid to the very same trading partners we may depend on if we leave the EU, is just one of those sick jokes that can only happen when dogma and xenophobia clashes with reality.

[Taf]

Originally Posted by Osem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35230959

Can't really see how he could have done anything else.

Note he only said "Ministers" not M.P.'s.

Originally Posted by Taf

Note he only said "Ministers" not M.P.'s.

It is already a given that MPs will pick whichever side they will.

The uncertainty was whether Cameron would force his ministers to campaign for Remain, on the basis that Remain is tied to his renegotiation process. The principle of collective responsibility within the Government is not often set aside.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Sirius

Why did i think of jello as soon as i read that

That's just plain wrong.

Go and get some counselling.

[Osem]

Hungary's prime minister has told David Cameron Hungarians working in the UK are not "migrants" or "parasites".

Viktor Orban said they paid more into the UK's system in tax than they got out in benefits and should not be "discriminated" against.

For that reason Mr Cameron's demand for a four year benefit ban on new arrivals was "difficult", he said.

But he vowed to work with other East European countries to come up with a solution acceptable to the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35245888

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Boris is hedging his bets:

In other EU referendum news, London Mayor Boris Johnson has said the UK has a "great, great future" outside the EU if Mr Cameron doesn't secure the reform it needs.