Brexit discussion

[RichardCoulter]

Since the vote I've met people who voted leave who have now changed their mind once becoming more informed about the implications, conversely some who voted to stay have said they would vote leave if another referendum takes place due to the behaviour of the EU during Brexit negotiations.

[heero_yuy]

Quote from The Sun:


Michael Barnier is facing a rebellion from EU states after angering them with his aggressive Brexit demands.

Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt spoke out against the EU’s chief negotiator to reveal the 27 national members are more “pragmatic” than his hard line.

It also emerged the veteran French politician faced a grilling from the states’ ambassadors on Friday over his threat to slap punishment sanctions on the UK for any transgressions during the post-Brexit transition period.

Brussels sources have claimed Mr Barnier will be forced to drop the sanctions clause from the transition deal, in what would be a humiliating U-turn for him.

One said of the ambassadors’ grilling: “There was a general feeling that something was wrong”.

The threat sparked a major row with Brexit Secretary David Davis last week, who accused his opposite number of acting “in bad faith”.

Looks like Barnier has overplayed his hand.

The EU are nothing but a corrupt set of bullies and I’m glad it is backfiring on them politically for trying to take the tough stance on us.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Kursk

The EU are starting to get the jitters. Bullying the UK will not work. Even Sir Foghorn Clegghorn is singing a different tune.

Our negotiation tactics are doing fine. We'll tell the EU what we want when we're ready.

Yes, it's beginning to dawn on EU countries that they need GB. Barnier is stuck in a rut with his attitude and needs to step up.

---------- Post added at 11:31 ---------- Previous post was at 11:23 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Every civil servant I've met has been pro-Brexit. Yes, they hated Farage but they saw Brexit as creating more jobs for British civil servants. If anything, their motivations would be to encourage Brexit, not discourage it!
The forecasts we're seeing now aren't Project Fear. They've been scrutinised millions of times over by a Brexit-focused Government. We're also not seeing contradictory forecasts from other organisations. All are saying that Brexit means a reduction in growth and that's what we're seeing now as the Eurozone outpaces us. Maybe you'd Prefer Bill at No. 35 to do your cataract operation on his day off from Tesco. I'd prefer to trust experts if I can understand their logic.
Optimism on its own doesn't change the facts of geography and economics. Simply saying that because Project Fear has not come to pass, all economists' predictions will always be wrong is flawed.That clearly isn't the case as they would all be out of jobs.

If every Civil Servant you've met is pro-Brexit, you must associate with a very discrete group of Civil Servants!

You may be right that at least some forecasts are not designed deliberately to put fear into the minds of voters, but I am afraid they are not taking full account of the opportunities to be gained from Brexit. Furthermore, they are not taking account of the fact that there will be a minimal adverse impact on trade if we get the deal our government wants.

Despite all Brexit forecasts so far, there is little evidence that any of them are anywhere near right, and the siren voices who proclaimed a major impact immediately following the vote to leave have been proved hilariously wrong.

I find no reason at all to believe that the economy will suffer post Brexit. The EU isn't that great.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I find no reason at all to believe that the economy will suffer post Brexit. The EU isn't that great.

I can give you a simple example of the impact of leaving the EU and customs union that will have an impact...

Switzerland is in the EU single market but not in the customs union. For every export to Switzerland from the EU, a 'preferential certificate of origin' is required which states that the goods were made or significantly processed in the EU and therefore covered by the Switzerland/EU trade agreements. This ensures that the correct tariffs, if any are applied to the goods on import.

If and when we leave the customs union, all exports to the EU from the UK will require either a preferential (deal) or non-preferential (no deal) certificate of origin to ensure that the goods originated in the UK and not imported from a third country and shipped through the UK to the EU, thus importing to the EU 'through the back door'.

Certificates of origin are not an EU thing, it is an internationally agreed instrument of global trading.

The company I work for estimates certificates of origin take 3-5 'man minutes' per order to complete. So, for a 1000 orders, that's 50-83 man hours. That's 2 additional head count for a small number of orders.

At present, 45% of our exports go to the EU and will need this certification where they didn't before.

On the plus side, that's additional employment. On the minus side, that's a significant increase in costs to an exporter meaning they will either have to take the cost or increase pricing to maintain margins, making our good less competitive on the global market.

Ignoring every other tariff and non-tariff trade barrier, something simple like certificates of origin will have an impact...

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I can give you a simple example of the impact of leaving the EU and customs union that will have an impact...

Switzerland is in the EU single market but not in the customs union. For every export to Switzerland from the EU, a 'preferential certificate of origin' is required which states that the goods were made or significantly processed in the EU and therefore covered by the Switzerland/EU trade agreements. This ensures that the correct tariffs, if any are applied to the goods on import.

If and when we leave the customs union, all exports to the EU from the UK will require either a preferential (deal) or non-preferential (no deal) certificate of origin to ensure that the goods originated in the UK and not imported from a third country and shipped through the UK to the EU, thus importing to the EU 'through the back door'.

Certificates of origin are not an EU thing, it is an internationally agreed instrument of global trading.

The company I work for estimates certificates of origin take 3-5 'man minutes' per order to complete. So, for a 1000 orders, that's 50-83 man hours. That's 2 additional head count for a small number of orders.

At present, 45% of our exports go to the EU and will need this certification where they didn't before.

On the plus side, that's additional employment. On the minus side, that's a significant increase in costs to an exporter meaning they will either have to take the cost or increase pricing to maintain margins, making our good less competitive on the global market.

Ignoring every other tariff and non-tariff trade barrier, something simple like certificates of origin will have an impact...

But you are simply describing a problem which can be resolved by having a trade and services agreement, incorporating a bespoke customs agreement for the UK. It’s not really what I would call rocket science. It is simply a matter for negotiation.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

But you are simply describing a problem which can be resolved by having a trade and services agreement, incorporating a bespoke customs agreement for the UK. It’s not really what I would call rocket science. It is simply a matter for negotiation.

It is possible to avoid the certificate of origin issue I posted and that’s where goods clear customs in one country and can then be exported freely to other countries. To be able to do that, you need a common external tariff. The EU want to impose an anti dumping tariff of 100% on Chinese steel but the UK doesn’t. If the UK imposes a 20% tariff, what’s to stop China importing to the UK and then the UK exports to the EU at a lower tariff. That’s what this certification stops.

If there’s a common tariff, then the certification isn’t needed. Unfortunately, that’s a customs union which HMG has said we’re leaving.

Personally, I think we will be in a customs union with the EU after leaving but it won’t be called that.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

It is possible to avoid the certificate of origin issue I posted and that’s where goods clear customs in one country and can then be exported freely to other countries. To be able to do that, you need a common external tariff. The EU want to impose an anti dumping tariff of 100% on Chinese steel but the UK doesn’t. If the UK imposes a 20% tariff, what’s to stop China importing to the UK and then the UK exports to the EU at a lower tariff. That’s what this certification stops.

If there’s a common tariff, then the certification isn’t needed. Unfortunately, that’s a customs union which HMG has said we’re leaving.

Personally, I think we will be in a customs union with the EU after leaving but it won’t be called that.

The customs agreement will address such issues. It is not a problem that cannot be resolved.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The customs agreement will address such issues. It is not a problem that cannot be resolved.

Unlike Northern Ireland.....

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Unlike Northern Ireland.....

Well that’s where a customs union but obviously not ‘the’ customs union comes in. Solves a tiny aspect of international trade I raised as an example of trading friction and a big aspect of the Northern Ireland issue.

However.... This will be the governments toughest sales job ever both to members of their own party and the general public.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Well that’s where a customs union but obviously not ‘the’ customs union comes in. Solves a tiny aspect of international trade I raised as an example of trading friction and a big aspect of the Northern Ireland issue.

However.... This will be the governments toughest sales job ever both to members of their own party and the general public.

That customs union or customs agreement will presumably mean that the UK can't negotiate its own trade deals. Which Old Boy, Rees-Mogg, et al will need a lot of convincing on despite the detailed insight you have shared with us.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

That customs union or customs agreement will presumably mean that the UK can't negotiate its own trade deals. Which Old Boy, Rees-Mogg, et al will need a lot of convincing on despite the detailed insight you have shared with us.

The whole point of departure from the EU is that we will be free to conduct our own trade deals. Any customs agreement needs to recognise this. The border between NI and Ireland is also capable of being resolved.

We do not yet know what either agreement will look like but all will be revealed eventually. The government is deliberately keeping its cards close to its chest, and for good reason. When you look at Barnier's stance, and the growing reaction to that from other EU countries, it is clear, as it has always been, that ultimately the EU must face the reality of our leaving and that without a deal, the EU will be much worse off.

I know it is frustrating for everyone that things are moving so slowly, but the government know how the EU operates very well. May has not lost her way on this, and some of the voices off are necessary to show the EU that she has little room for maneouvre. The detail of Britain's proposals will be revealed when Barnier and his nasty friends are willing to listen. Shouldn't be too much longer now - be patient!

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The whole point of departure from the EU is that we will be free to conduct our own trade deals. Any customs agreement needs to recognise this. The border between NI and Ireland is also capable of being resolved.

We do not yet know what either agreement will look like but all will be revealed eventually. The government is deliberately keeping its cards close to its chest, and for good reason. When you look at Barnier's stance, and the growing reaction to that from other EU countries, it is clear, as it has always been, that ultimately the EU must face the reality of our leaving and that without a deal, the EU will be much worse off.

I know it is frustrating for everyone that things are moving so slowly, but the government know how the EU operates very well. May has not lost her way on this, and some of the voices off are necessary to show the EU that she has little room for maneouvre. The detail of Britain's proposals will be revealed when Barnier and his nasty friends are willing to listen. Shouldn't be too much longer now - be patient!

Vicious rumour ( being spread by me) That she is moving the date we leave forward, smart move imo

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The whole point of departure from the EU is that we will be free to conduct our own trade deals. Any customs agreement needs to recognise this. The border between NI and Ireland is also capable of being resolved.

We do not yet know what either agreement will look like but all will be revealed eventually. The government is deliberately keeping its cards close to its chest, and for good reason. When you look at Barnier's stance, and the growing reaction to that from other EU countries, it is clear, as it has always been, that ultimately the EU must face the reality of our leaving and that without a deal, the EU will be much worse off.

I know it is frustrating for everyone that things are moving so slowly, but the government know how the EU operates very well. May has not lost her way on this, and some of the voices off are necessary to show the EU that she has little room for maneouvre. The detail of Britain's proposals will be revealed when Barnier and his nasty friends are willing to listen. Shouldn't be too much longer now - be patient!

We can either do our own trade deals or we can have seamless trade with the EU. As Jonbxx has explained, we can't do both. Which is it to be?

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

We can either do our own trade deals or we can have seamless trade with the EU. As Jonbxx has explained, we can't do both. Which is it to be?

The former. A mutually beneficial arrangement for the latter might be possible once M. Barnier learns respect for the UK; he is walking a knife edge.