Post-Brexit Thread

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

So was Europe after the war, didn't stop our relatives coming here

Perhaps some will come. I dunno!

[Chrysalis]

Originally Posted by Anypermitedroute

Correct and according to this article http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit.../job-vacancies there is currently around 746,000 available so those two million can start applying as they are available today, no ifs no buts

fair to point out that many advertised jobs are fake

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Kursk

Perhaps some will come. I dunno!

They came 70 years ago, both Ramrod and my families had connections to the SS back then as well incidentally.

[Anypermitedroute]

Originally Posted by Chrysalis

fair to point out that many advertised jobs are fake

True and have been there and done that but the key is not give up on your first application.

as the article was quoting vacancies as per ONS and not monster.co.uk I think we can assume it's there or thereabouts

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by martyh

http://uk.businessinsider.com/joseph...he-euro-2016-8

https://www.ft.com/content/5726e610-...d-0dfe89910bd6

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...oseph-Stiglitz

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016...-warns-moodys/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...s-french-bank/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...oros-investors

There's pages and pages of predictions of the collapse of the EU and the euro

Reviewed the links. Thank you again. Interesting to see that George Soros and Joseph Stiglitz predict it which give it gravitas in my book. Less surprising was the appearance of Mervyn King along with a book to sell.
Could only find one financial institution that predicts the end of the Eurozone (Moody's) so no evidence has been supplied that virtually every financial institution on the planet has has predicted it. Doesn't mean it won't happen. Logically, I don't think institutions would predict such an event as they would suffer from it so I was very surprised to see your assertion that virtually every financial institution on the planet is predicting it. They aren't.

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Originally Posted by TheDaddy

So was Europe after the war, didn't stop our relatives coming here

So economic migrants then, not refugees? At times it can be a bit of a blurred line.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Do you think people in similar positions to your parents would still be allowed to come here in the coming years?

As genuine refugees, fleeing communist persecution, probably yes.
Then again, since socialism/communism is effectively taking over by stealth in lots of places, possibly not!

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Then again, since socialism/communism is effectively taking over by stealth in lots of places, possibly not!

Where is this happening? I wonder what exactly you define as socialism/communism. I think you lump general authoritarianism with communism but sometimes you also chuck liberals in there when liberalism is the opposite of it. You can't be a liberal communist, it makes no sense.

Look at Russia these days. They're not really advocating socialism anymore but they are still very authoritarian and feed into the alternative right-wing that exists in the West, not because it's right-wing, but because they're against the liberal Western establishment. It's certainly not as simple as left/right anymore and the extremes of either side seem to have more in common.

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

They came 70 years ago, both Ramrod and my families had connections to the SS back then as well incidentally.

Sounds ominous, but it might be that your family was well-to-do rather than murderous. The well-heeled tend to be attracted by power.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

It did indeed seem like very little. Then I spoke to a constitutional lawyer who explained to me in the context of the treaties just how much of a concession Cameron was given.

"in the context of the treaties"......and we still got bugger all. Nuff said......

[Osem]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

We don't - this is something entirely new unfortunately.

It's really not something 'entirely new' at all.

Andrew Goodwin of Oxford Economics has looked at the annual data, with them both converted to US dollars for convenience, for The Independent and he says UK GDP in 2015 was $2.85 trillion and French GDP was $2.42 trillion.

“That’s a difference of almost 18 per cent” Mr Goodwin says “so while they may have very briefly crossed this morning when sterling reached its 31-year low (though I’m not sure they actually did), sterling’s subsequent rally means it certainly won’t be the case now. And that’s before we get onto whether converting at market exchange rates is an appropriate thing to do!”

He adds: “Market exchange rates are far too volatile and a lot of the time any changes in the rankings merely reflect FX movements rather than a genuine change in the relative performance of the economies.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7101361.html

Currency rates can fluctuate wildly and quickly for all sorts of reasons* and nobody is claiming that these movements aren't important or potentially damaging but they do result in GDP league table changes and they often have little to do with the fundamentals of the economies in question. The French economy hasn't been transformed over night any more than ours has and the next hit of really bad news from the EU will see the Euro fall.

* Remember George Soros and the ERM crisis?

---------- Post added at 11:09 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Ramrod

"in the context of the treaties"......and we still got bugger all. Nuff said......

Yup! Bugger all movement was possible and even the very real threat of one of the EU's largest economies and net contributors leaving, didn't force a rethink. That sums up the EU nicely for me too.

I'd always thought the EU has long been engaged in kicking a can down the road but IIRC George Soros is on record as saying it's more like kicking a ball up a hill...

[techguyone]

Of course it hasn't especially given the time frame involved - it does, however make a great soundbite to pronounce woe to all.

I'm unclear why the remainers still think we all want t don black jackboots and start closing everything down. No one I know does, yes I'd like to restrict immigration to something manageable, even the most zealous left wing luvvie must recognise circa 300,00 annually - that we know of is a bit... crappy really.

I don't think it's all fluffy unicorn farts to the sunset either, I fully acknowledge it will be difficult and not 'instant great' In the long run though I think we'll be better off, especially if Europe falls.

I'm especially thankfully that we at least have the chance to do something for us, without the handicaps or advantages the EU gave us, I suspect if we had left it another 5 years or so, there would have been enough 'tactical' voters in Scotland and 'people of foreign origins' in London & other big cities to thoroughly put the kibosh on that idea forever.

We're masters of our own destiny now, and how we work towards that will determine how we end up - it would be nice if we all worked towards that goal to ensure that the best possible outcome arises.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by techguyone

Of course it hasn't especially given the time frame involved - it does, however make a great soundbite to pronounce woe to all.

I'm unclear why the remainers still think we all want t don black jackboots and start closing everything down. No one I know does, yes I'd like to restrict immigration to something manageable, even the most zealous left wing luvvie must recognise circa 300,00 annually - that we know of is a bit... crappy really.

I don't think it's all fluffy unicorn farts to the sunset either, I fully acknowledge it will be difficult and not 'instant great' In the long run though I think we'll be better off, especially if Europe falls.

I'm especially thankfully that we at least have the chance to do something for us, without the handicaps or advantages the EU gave us, I suspect if we had left it another 5 years or so, there would have been enough 'tactical' voters in Scotland and 'people of foreign origins' in London & other big cities to thoroughly put the kibosh on that idea forever.

We're masters of our own destiny now, and how we work towards that will determine how we end up - it would be nice if we all worked towards that goal to ensure that the best possible outcome arises.

Well hopefully...

Yes that would be the sensible thing to do wouldn't it. If they decision is made, as we've been promised, there's little point in going over what would have been etc. We need to get on with determining what will be and panicking, talking ourselves down or whatever serves no purpose other than to harm our chances of arriving at the best possible outcome whatever that turns out to be. No there's no room for complacency about the UK's prospects or the problems ahead but we can't afford to be defeatist now because that could well turn out to create a self fulfilling prophecy.

This is an article from a supporter of Brexit who also thinks May has taken the worst possible message from the vote: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-illiberal-br/

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And another one: http://www.andrewlilico.com/2016/10/...foreigner-one/

[Osem]

Opinions are going to vary and change on all of this as it's highly contentious and a massive step. I don't feel concerned about the message being given re immigration and neither does my wife and she's an immigrant too BTW albeit not one who had the right to just come, live and get benefits here - NO RECOURSE TO PUBLIC FUNDS was stamped in her passport.

What we mustn't forget is that things are changing in the EU too, largely not for the better IMHO and not due solely to Brexit (e.g. migration, banking crises, austerity, unemployment etc.). It's perfectly likely that the EU is going to turn into a worse place than it currently is and not necessarily remain something we'd want to be a part of. Over the decades it's proved virtually impossible for the UK to really change the EU much so I don't really think if we'd stayed in we'd have been able to influence these matters, prevented the rise of the right wing parties or avoided the impact of Eurozone woes on the UK. The political reaction we're seeing across Europe is the direct result of the unwillingness of the Eurocrats to listen and change course.

The EU is a behemoth which clearly can't keep up with its own problems let alone the fast changing world events which are the cause of some of them. IMHO it's had its time and we're, regretfully, better off out of it but will never be immune to the problems it faces.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by martyh

in 5 yrs time we could very easily be back to number 4 when the eurozone collapses which is being predicted by just about every financial institution on the planet

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN1260NG

Citi analysts upgraded their recommendation on Europe's beleaguered banks to "overweight" within regional portfolios, citing signs of improvement in the credit cycle and loan growth as well as cheap relative valuations.

Citi acknowledged headwinds facing the sector such as pressure on profits from ultra-low interest rates, regulatory costs and potential dilution, but added it saw negative risks as being more on selective, individual banks rather than being system-wide.

---------- Post added at 13:49 ---------- Previous post was at 13:44 ----------

Originally Posted by Ramrod

"in the context of the treaties"......and we still got bugger all. Nuff said......

The context of the treaties is that there are prexisting commitments, agreed by 28 states, and varying them unilaterally to accommodate one wasn't going to happen. Not that the treaties meant that they could give us whatever we asked for.

It kinda summed up the UK's entire relationship with the EU in a nutshell. Keeping heads down and abiding by some of the rules religiously, while demanding many opt-outs from others and periodically demanding others be changed for our benefit exclusively every so often.

---------- Post added at 13:54 ---------- Previous post was at 13:49 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

This is an article from a supporter of Brexit who also thinks May has taken the worst possible message from the vote: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-illiberal-br/

That's actually very perceptive.

---------- Post added at 13:58 ---------- Previous post was at 13:54 ----------

Originally Posted by techguyone

I'm unclear why the remainers still think we all want t don black jackboots and start closing everything down. No one I know does, yes I'd like to restrict immigration to something manageable, even the most zealous left wing luvvie must recognise circa 300,00 annually - that we know of is a bit... crappy really.

Canada, Australia and many others take in more per head.

Canada, population 35 million, are taking in between 280,000 and 305,000 this year, plus refugees, Australia 190,000 permanent economic migrants alone on a population of 23.1 million.

That we can't handle less than 0.5% is a bit... crappy really.