Updated: Boris resigns as party leader
20-04-2022, 22:51
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#1741
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,985
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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A poll of how much people think Johnson is a dick, is not an indication of whether the next government will be a Labour one.
I think Johnson is a colossal dick, but I still believe a Conservative government lead by him or someone else is preferable to Kier “what’s a cervix” or Angela “I’ll break your face” Rayner.
---------- Post added at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:46 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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You Gov? Because they’ve been proven to be wholly accurate and representative…………..
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The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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21-04-2022, 00:21
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#1742
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,157
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
You Gov? Because they’ve been proven to be wholly accurate and representative…………..
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They know more about polling than you and me put together. It's their job, even if you don't find the polls a match for your views.
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21-04-2022, 03:26
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#1743
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: At the Leaving door
Posts: 4,050
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
polls here, polls there, polls everywhere . . . probably with the same (hand picked) 2000 people being asked every time
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21-04-2022, 08:52
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#1744
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,467
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
polls here, polls there, polls everywhere . . . probably with the same (hand picked) 2000 people being asked every time
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Your hypothesis is not aligned with actuality…
(but you probably knew that  )
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21-04-2022, 10:54
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#1745
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: At the Leaving door
Posts: 4,050
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
Your hypothesis is not aligned with actuality…
(but you probably knew that ) |
yet a poll of 2000 people 'random' people gives a result that is then projected to be the consensus of the remaining 40 million people of voting age in the country 
I fear many people have lost their grip on reality and live in a strange world where they depend on statistics and expert analysis to help them though the day . . . and 11 of the 9 people in my therapy group agree with me 
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21-04-2022, 11:05
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#1746
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Trollsplatter
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 38,048
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
yet a poll of 2000 people 'random' people gives a result that is then projected to be the consensus of the remaining 40 million people of voting age in the country |
Your not understanding how something works does not equate to proof that something doesn’t work.
Polling relies on a form of applied mathematics called statistics. Its potential as well as its limitations are well understood, and accessible introductions to the science are readily available.
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21-04-2022, 11:19
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#1747
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: At the Leaving door
Posts: 4,050
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Your not understanding how something works does not equate to proof that something doesn’t work.
Polling relies on a form of applied mathematics called statistics. Its potential as well as its limitations are well understood, and accessible introductions to the science are readily available.
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It's bloody guesswork, no matter how fancy you dress it up.
*shakes head and walks away
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21-04-2022, 11:51
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#1748
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The Invisible Woman
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: between Portsmouth and Southampton.
Age: 72
Services: VM XL TV,50 MB VM BB,VM landline, Tivo
Posts: 40,335
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
polls here, polls there, polls everywhere . . . probably with the same (hand picked) 2000 people being asked every time
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Hah! Everytime there's a poll/survey of public opinion in the High street you can see those who hang around hoping to be approached and those that can't possibly stop now and are too busy to stop to answer some questions.It amounts pretty much to the same people being asked over and over again.
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Hell is empty and all the devils are here. Shakespeare..
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21-04-2022, 12:43
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#1749
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cf.mega pornstar
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 19,151
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Anyone hear MP William Wragg's speech a few minutes ago, gives me hope that politics is worth persisting with and that there still are decent people participating in it
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21-04-2022, 14:22
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#1750
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,719
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maggy
Hah! Everytime there's a poll/survey of public opinion in the High street you can see those who hang around hoping to be approached and those that can't possibly stop now and are too busy to stop to answer some questions.It amounts pretty much to the same people being asked over and over again.
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That's not how proper polling works. They either do have the same people but make sure it's a broad cross-section of society - this is actually useful as you can track how people change - or it's random telephone polling of 'x' amount of people.
It works because people demographically are not that different. So if you get enough people the outliers even out.
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21-04-2022, 15:32
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#1751
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,467
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
It's bloody guesswork, no matter how fancy you dress it up.
*shakes head and walks away
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Statistics is not the same as guesswork, no matter how many times you say it…
The problem a lot of people have with Statistics (as a Branch of Mathematics) is that it can often be counterintuitive, which can confuse people (because they find it difficult to understand, they dismiss it).
For example, how many people would have to be in a room before it was likely there would be two with the same birthday?
https://www.statisticshowto.com/same-birthday-odds/
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21-04-2022, 15:48
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#1752
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: At the Leaving door
Posts: 4,050
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
Statistics is not the same as guesswork, no matter how many times you say it…
The problem a lot of people have with Statistics (as a Branch of Mathematics) is that it can often be counterintuitive, which can confuse people (because they find it difficult to understand, they dismiss it).
For example, how many people would have to be in a room before it was likely there would be two with the same birthday?
https://www.statisticshowto.com/same-birthday-odds/ |
Amazing, what a coincidence (see what I did there) that 2 of 30 people in a room have the same birthday.
How many people use this forum daily . . . and how many share the same birthday?
*knocks the ball back over to you . .
edit: I've just remembered something that may interest you.
Years ago I used to drink in a pub (before it was knocked down and turned into rabbit hutches) and 2 people in the bar had the same name (both christian & surname), and it wasn't a common name like John Smith or Dave Brown (although there was actually one of those present).
Funnily enough one is white (no not the name) and the other was black (I say was because now he's ethnic/brown/dark skinned/asian etc etc)
Statistically then, in a group of 40 people drinking in a public bar, 2 of them will share the exact same name . . . am I right?
Last edited by Carth; 21-04-2022 at 16:03.
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21-04-2022, 16:38
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#1753
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,719
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
of them will share the exact same name . . . am I right?
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No, because there are far more names than days in a year but I guess are common names so you would be able to work it out.
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21-04-2022, 16:39
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#1754
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 9,015
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
Statistically then, in a group of 40 people drinking in a public bar, 2 of them will share the exact same name . . . am I right?
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No, because you have taken too small a sample and names are not randomly assigned to people. Whereas you can work out the common birthdays thing just with some simple maths - no need to ask people in the pub at all.
As for CF members, there are plenty of common birthdays. Just on the first page of Lifestyle, I see these threads:
Happy Birthday to TAZMANUK, braysoj1
Happy Birthday to djmagnifique, spj20016
Happy Birthday to Sirius, eoin.miskell
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21-04-2022, 17:09
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#1755
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,467
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Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
Amazing, what a coincidence (see what I did there) that 2 of 30 people in a room have the same birthday.
How many people use this forum daily . . . and how many share the same birthday?
*knocks the ball back over to you . .
edit: I've just remembered something that may interest you.
Years ago I used to drink in a pub (before it was knocked down and turned into rabbit hutches) and 2 people in the bar had the same name (both christian & surname), and it wasn't a common name like John Smith or Dave Brown (although there was actually one of those present).
Funnily enough one is white (no not the name) and the other was black (I say was because now he's ethnic/brown/dark skinned/asian etc etc)
Statistically then, in a group of 40 people drinking in a public bar, 2 of them will share the exact same name . . . am I right?
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Tell me you don’t understand Statistics without telling me you don’t understand Statistics…
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Last edited by Hugh; 21-04-2022 at 17:14.
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