PM Boris forms a government

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

So again worst case scenario. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU and it still has delays. Are these delays any longer then issues created by bad weather or trade union strikes? These things would still happen if the Withdrawal Agreement was approved.

Nobody would suggest trying to overturn a Scottish "yes" to independence, when the problems for them would be even worse, even if the UK remained in the EU.

Incorrect.
1. Re-read. "Even with the best-case scenario..."
2. If the withdrawal agreement was approved they would not happen as we would be more closely aligned than Turkey is.
3. Don't know what Scotland's got to do with this. I'm talking about up-to-date impact reports.

Originally Posted by Mr K

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49541942


So the UK Govt. won't agree not to break the law. Well that's 'carte blanche' for the rest of us ! #chaos

Any legislation voted for in parliament requires Royal Assent. Boris could advise the Queen not to give it. So he can not break a law, that doesn’t become law. He has this one last nuclear option and to assert that the Government is the only executive of the day.

[jfman]

That'd be good if that happened. Vive le republique!

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

Turkey isn't transitioning from a frictionless border so I fail to see the relevance.

Snow melts, workers return. Are you suggesting the solution is to rejoin the EU within a few days?

A Customs Union still creates delays, and they've had more than 20 years to sort it out(ie the EU making it more difficult).
Link

On a recent Saturday at the Kapıkule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints. “Today is a good day,” said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours. “Last week the line was 7km long.” The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side.
...
“The customs union means free movement of our goods,” said Erman Ereke, a member of the executive committee of the Turkish International Transporters’ Association. “It doesn’t mean free movement of our trucks.”

Bad weather and strike delays can easily last longer than any of the worst case scenario delays. If the UK can routinely cope with those, then it can cope with any of these supposed delays.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

A Customs Union still creates delays, and they've had more than 20 years to sort it out(ie the EU making it more difficult).
Link

Bad weather and strike delays can easily last longer than any of the worst case scenario delays. If the UK can routinely cope with those, then it can cope with any of these supposed delays.

No, it can't on that basis alone. You are assuming we can put things in place to mitigate the delays and respond to them. Yet nobody can say what these would be, how much they would cost or when they could be implemented from. There's no return to "business as usual".

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Incorrect.
1. Re-read. "Even with the best-case scenario..."
2. If the withdrawal agreement was approved they would not happen as we would be more closely aligned than Turkey is.
3. Don't know what Scotland's got to do with this. I'm talking about up-to-date impact reports.

1. 2 hour delay is nothing
2. It would still all happen from 2021, even with the backstop which is just an ongoing customs union.
3. Would anybody suggest Scotland shouldn't be allowed to vote for independence for these SAME reasons?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

1. 2 hour delay is nothing
2. It would still all happen from 2021, even with the backstop which is just an ongoing customs union.
3. Would anybody suggest Scotland shouldn't be allowed to vote for independence for these SAME reasons?

1) A two hour delay, multiplied across the millions of consignments entering and exiting the country isn't nothing. This isn't like when you have to hang around A&E for a few hours to see a doctor. That only inconveniences you, at minimal cost.

2) 2021 gives time to prepare.

3) There's no indication that Scotland wouldn't immediately be in a customs union with the EU had it became independent.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

No, it can't on that basis alone. You are assuming we can put things in place to mitigate the delays and respond to them. Yet nobody can say what these would be, how much they would cost or when they could be implemented from. There's no return to "business as usual".

I'm saying the effect of any delays is not as drastic as certain people are making out. A customs union is not a solution to these suggested delays, so they will happen whatever. If the country can cope with a 3 day weather delay, it can cope with delays of a few hours.

If a clear cut democratic decision is allowed to be overturned by the losing side, where does it all end? Labour governments bring disaster, especially any involving the current lot. Should they be forced to be overturned, or is it as always, only Liberals and the Left get to choose when a "principle" applies.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

1. 2 hour delay is nothing
2. It would still all happen from 2021, even with the backstop which is just an ongoing customs union.
3. Would anybody suggest Scotland shouldn't be allowed to vote for independence for these SAME reasons?

1. Incredible. Moving from a two-minute delay to "Even with a best-case scenario, with businesses as prepared as they possibly could be, vehicles will be waiting for two to three hours, with 50% of vehicles waiting for at least eight." would have serious implications as both the report and the transport have told the government.
2. 2021 will allow more time for revising supply chains and building port infrastructure even if a deal doesn't give us a very close trading relationship.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

I'm saying the effect of any delays is not as drastic as certain people are making out. A customs union is not a solution to these suggested delays, so they will happen whatever. If the country can cope with a 3 day weather delay, it can cope with delays of a few hours.

If a clear cut democratic decision is allowed to be overturned by the losing side, where does it all end? Labour governments bring disaster, especially any involving the current lot. Should they be forced to be overturned, or is it as always, only Liberals and the Left get to choose when a "principle" applies.

It's astounding that you can't tell the difference between one off exceptional circumstances and day in day to circumstances.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

I'm saying the effect of any delays is not as drastic as certain people are making out. A customs union is not a solution to these suggested delays, so they will happen whatever. If the country can cope with a 3 day weather delay, it can cope with delays of a few hours.

If a clear cut democratic decision is allowed to be overturned by the losing side, where does it all end? Labour governments bring disaster, especially any involving the current lot. Should they be forced to be overturned, or is it as always, only Liberals and the Left get to choose when a "principle" applies.

Please read the article. If you get such delays permanently, it becomes uneconomic to run the service.
No one's debating overturning a referendum in these reports.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

1) A two hour delay, multiplied across the millions of consignments entering and exiting the country isn't nothing. This isn't like when you have to hang around A&E for a few hours to see a doctor. That only inconveniences you, at minimal cost.

2) 2021 gives time to prepare.

3) There's no indication that Scotland wouldn't immediately be in a customs union with the EU had it became independent.

1) Delays of more than 2 hours occur all the time for one reason or other. The UK doesn't collapse as a result.
2) Prepare for what? There is no solution as the issues that Turkey still has demonstrates. Turkey has had more than 20 years, and the EU still holds things up.
3) There are still delays with a customs union. It's mere speculation that Scotland would be in a customs union with the EU. Even so, their main problem is the border with England. A EU-Scottish customs union wouldn't address that.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

1) Delays of more than 2 hours occur all the time for one reason or other. The UK doesn't collapse as a result.
2) Prepare for what? There is no solution as the issues that Turkey still has demonstrates. Turkey has had more than 20 years, and the EU still holds things up.
3) There are still delays with a customs union. It's mere speculation that Scotland would be in a customs union with the EU. Even so, their main problem is the border with England. A EU-Scottish customs union wouldn't address that.

They don't occur "all the time". They're the exception, not the rile.

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up a non-EU member states and their customs union. Each customs union is different so unless ours was identical we can't say the same would happen.

Again, not that Scotland have anything to do with it, without knowing the detail you couldn't say what delays would or would not occur.

Originally Posted by jfman

That'd be good if that happened. Vive le republique!

Pathetic. So you want to remain in a corrupt EU. Give up the crown, for what, military rule?

To think in such small terms. In your dreams. Monarchy here to stay. Did you not study history?

We already were a Republic once, didn’t quite work out that well.

The Queen barely flex’s the power she welds and quite rightly, for a long long time, she has kept the Monachy out of the political arena. She’s being dragged in because the Democratic will of the people is being ignored, we voted to leave the EU. We have a Remain led Parliament subverting Democracy, not Boris Johnson, these people shouting, “Stopthecoup”, never actually seen a real coup, tanks, rogue army etc.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

It's astounding that you can't tell the difference between one off exceptional circumstances and day in day to circumstances.

Maybe we can be more helpful with our clarifications. Let me try an analogy.
If your train journey takes two minutes but is occasionally delayed by bad weather or a train strike, you will still use it.
If it is regularly delayed by 2-3 hours and you have a 50% chance of it being delayed by 8 hours, you will make other arrangements like the plane or car. These will be more costly in time or money.
Over time, you might find it better to buy somewhere closer to work or choose a new job. But you can't do this instantly.