Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

[thenry]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A bit late - I think it already has.

Israel taking Gaza and the West Bank has to happen yet.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by thenry

Israel taking Gaza and the West Bank has to happen yet.

The debate is around whether "all hell has broken loose in the Middle East". I think to all intents and purposes it has.

Whether Israel has taken Gaza and the West Bank is a different question entirely. The two should not be conflated.

[thenry]

My opinion is that the fact fellow Muslims are still in the area of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank is holding off any serious war in the region.

Originally Posted by thenry

My opinion is that the fact fellow Muslims are still in the area of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank is holding off any serious war in the region.

It may also be the fact the "fellow Muslims" are not a homogenous mass, but a bunch of countries, and Muslim sects within those countries, who hate each other - Saudis vs Iran in a proxy war in Yemen, Iraq and Iran at each other's throats (even though Iran are trying to take over Iraq by stealth), Libya ruled by various battling warlords, Turkey fighting the Syrians, Kurds, & Iranians, and Sunnis and Shi'ites (mostly funded by Iran) in most of the Middle East countries hate each other...

Interesting book review in the Times a couple of months ago (the Syria references are out of date now).

https://www.thetimes.com/culture/boo...ined-rdg8t583j

From 1945–2008, the region’s civil wars attracted on average just over two outside countries. From 2008, they have drawn in an average of more than six.

[thenry]

They all follow the Qur'an, and although Sunnis and Shi'ites differ in some verses, they both believe Israel to be a disbeliever in Holy beliefs. Having said that Saudi Arabia, the owner of Islam, won't wage a war with Israel. But what is interesting is the Qur'an says the hypocrites don't fight in the name of Islam. So what is Saudi Arabias stance on Israel?

Well, this was about to happen, until the Iran-backed Hamas attack in October ‘23…

https://www.ibanet.org/article/d2659...0-a971485ec3d6

As countries in the Middle East move to re-position themselves to face new perceived threats, a major new alliance, and one previously considered implausible, appears to be emerging. The conservative Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is signalling it can strike an unprecedented peace deal with Israel, a country that is still known in some Saudi books as the ‘Zionist Enemy’.

The region is abuzz with slogans for the new deal but nothing captures what’s going on as well as ‘the deal of the century’, a phrase coined by Egyptian General-turned-President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and extensively adopted by Arab media. The idea is that all Arab nations will finally become allies with Israel, bringing peace to the previously tumultuous region.

At the heart of the new deal is Saudi Arabia, now having surpassed Egypt as the Arab countries’ uncontested leader, backed with soft-power and vast, oil-generated coffers.

Recently, Saudi Arabia has made the shift to limit the threats it faces to no more than two enemies: Iran and Sunni Islamist political opposition. These happen to be seen as the two threats facing Israel as well. This has brought both countries to an unlikely alliance. In the words of an influential member of the Al Saud ruling family, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, ‘For the first time, Saudi Arabian interests and Israel are almost parallel… It’s incredible.’

Iran and Saudi Arabia are already engaged in a cold war across the Middle East. Israel is rattled at the prospect of a nuclear Iran. Saudi Arabia sees combating organised Islamist opposition as a priority, especially after their Arab Spring successes. Israel shares the same concerns as the country fears a repeat of the Arab Spring could lead to Islamist governments taking over from current unpopular regimes and later gaining control of vast military resources.

They all follow the Qur'an, and although Sunnis and Shi'ites differ in some verses, they both believe Israel to be a disbeliever in Holy beliefs.

Catholics and Protestants in Norn Iron all "follow" the Bible, but we don’t see them singing from the same hymn-sheet - viewing all Muslims as a homogeneous group, considering their long, long history of inter-sect conflicts, isn’t, imho, a valid basis for theorising future directions…

[thenry]

A ceasefire agreement has been reached, a Hamas official has told Sky News, after more than a year of fighting in Gaza.

https://news.sky.com/story/a-ceasefi...-news-13270327

Originally Posted by thenry

"all hell will break loose in the middle east"

If the hostages aren't returned by the time Trump takes office. Assertive by President Trump.

Well done Trump

https://news.sky.com/story/donald-tr...ening-13285181

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by thenry

https://news.sky.com/story/donald-tr...ening-13285181

Well done Sleepy Jo! Let's hope that the incoming administration can build on your team's work.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Well done Sleepy Jo! Let's hope that the incoming administration can build on your team's work.

Of course…………..he’d done so, so much in the last 15months.


Amazing how a ceasefire miraculously is announced 5 days before Trumps inauguration

It would be good for this to be over whoever takes credit. The deal largely seems to be one the Americans came up with months ago but I don't think it would happen without the deadline of Trump becoming President in a few days and him making it clear that he'll expect a deal to be done and who knows under what terms.

[thenry]

SkyNews were speculating the Philadelphi corridor being withdrawn from by Israel.

[Pierre]

Seems to be a major mistake by Israel here.

Releasing terrorists to replace those killed.

Already videos showing Hamas soldiers commandeering aid trucks.

Israel should play along, get all the Hostages back………then go straight back into Gaza and continue to eliminate Hamas.

[thenry]

Trump’s declaration US will ‘take over’ Gaza Strip sparks global condemnation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...st-latest-live

I was hoping against this kind of development. America doesn't own the world and never will do! May be it's a kick up the arse by Trump

More likely this from last March…

https://apnews.com/article/jared-kus...d0c4582a4deb47

Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s former White House adviser and his son-in-law, praised the “very valuable” potential of Gaza’s “waterfront property,” suggesting that Israel should remove civilians while it “cleans up” the area.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by thenry

I was hoping against this kind of development. America doesn't own the world and never will do! May be it's a kick up the arse by Trump

Some suggestions he will use it as a lever for Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel.

But realistically, he can't carry out the plan without agreement from the residents of Gaza which isn't going to happen. And it runs counter to many of his supporters who voted for someone to focus on the US and not get involved with overseas problems.