[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[ntluser]

I think it's fascinating that so many people ( all pals of Dave of course!!) are going out of their way to tell us we should stay in the EU.

The US government and others all seem keen for us to remain a member.

The question I have to ask is this. If the EU is so good how come America has not applied for membership?

Could the reluctance be caused by the fact that US law would be subjugated to EU law?

Or is that the American public are not so keen to pay the VAT which would increase the cost of their purchases?

Maybe it's the fact that as an EU member you may be required to take a sizeable number of unemployed immigrants from fellow EU member states?

Or that the US will have to help by taking in more Syrian migrants?

For the rest of us all this insistence we stay in the EU is just making the case for us to leave.

Or could it be they are 3000 miles away from Europe?

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Or could it be they are 3000 miles away from Europe?

Surely a minor detail like that wouldn't put them off? LOL!!

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So, it would appear you are saying "if you don't trust someone on everything they do, you must mistrust with them on everything they do".

That's an "interesting" way to live your life...

You can't trust Jeremy Corbyn to get his tax returns in on time, so you can't trust him to run the country...

I like this game So you equate George's analysis of the Brexit economic fallout with "filling out his tax return" .. oh dear ..

(Again) I am just asking about one thing, not everything: do you trust George's ability to make economic decisions affecting the UK economy? Yes or No?

If Yes, you must agree with him on his Brexit analysis

If No, then why is he in No 11!!

Over to you Gary ..

Originally Posted by ianch99

I like this game So you equate George's analysis of the Brexit economic fallout with "filling out his tax return" .. oh dear ..

(Again) I am just asking about one thing, not everything: do you trust George's ability to make economic decisions affecting the UK economy? Yes or No?

If Yes, you must agree with him on his Brexit analysis

If No, then why is he in No 11!!

Over to you Gary ..

I think if Jeremy isn't capable of a simple task like getting his tax return in on time, something he does every year, I am concerned about his ability to run the country.

Yes, I do trust his ability to make economic decisions - but I also understand trying to manage a national economy in a world still recovering from the Banking Crisis, the refugee crisis, and fluctuating oil prices, is not as simple as some would like to make out/believe. Economics is not binary, no matter how many times you try to convince everyone it is - there are many conflicting theories and views on the best way forward, and they are based on people's beliefs and experiences; that's why Economics is regarded as a "soft science", rather than a hard one.

I also understand that he believes that Britain is better staying in - I'm still on the fence, but I respect his right to hold that view (just like I respect Boris et al's right to have a different view).

You would like to conflate these things together - I hope you find someone who accepts your viewpoint, but I'm not that person..

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I also understand that he believes that Britain is better staying in

He believes it's better for his PM career path if Britain stays in. Brexit means goodbye George , actually that might just swing my vote...

Originally Posted by Hugh

Yes, I do trust his ability to make economic decisions - but I also understand trying to manage a national economy in a world still recovering from the Banking Crisis, the refugee crisis, and fluctuating oil prices, is not as simple as some would like to make out/believe. Economics is not binary, no matter how many times you try to convince everyone it is - there are many conflicting theories and views on the best way forward, and they are based on people's beliefs and experiences; that's why Economics is regarded as a "soft science", rather than a hard one.

Although you're right there is no hard science about it does the sheer amount of economists and organisations backing Remain make a difference to you? Or do you think that it might be a case of everyone converging to the perceived 'safe' option rather than risk speaking out?

I can understand why people don't believe the government, that the CBI is only interest in their members, that the IMF simply want to avoid more uncertainty and that the American President is only interested in American-interests but I could keep going on with this list. Even Bill Gates, no fan of the EU after Microsoft's run-ins with them, thinks the benefits outweigh the costs. There are a lot of people here that have to be wrong.

This argument does risk being an appeal to authority rather than a convincing argument by itself but I do find it hard to believe they're all incorrect and Vote Leave are not.

Maybe if Vote Leave were more open that the benefits of sovereignty outweighs the costs but whilst they're saying that we'll do better out of the EU and almost everyone else is saying "No" then they lack credibility.

[Osem]

Maybe some of these people don't give two hoots about the UK and our way of life, what they fear is the repercussions for them and their interests if the UK were to leave.

Originally Posted by Osem

Maybe some of these people don't give two hoots about the UK and our way of life, what they fear is the repercussions for them and their interests if the UK were to leave.

Probably little although that doesn't make their insight, or opinion, any less valid. If anything their lack of personal stake in the issue makes their opinion more objective. Certainly Bill Gates is unlikely to suffer any consequences either way. Also it's not just Obama, who might have different motives, it's loads of organisations and economists.

To be honest when there are so many reputable sources saying that this will be a hit for the UK economically and so few disagreeing then I am inclined to believe the former. I'll admit I don't have an advanced understanding of economics so I am swayed by the views of those who do.

I understand why Vote Leave can't concede that issue but I find it hard to believe that they don't know it's their weakest point. Just as immigration and the efficiency of the EU 'machine' is the weakness for Remain.

This referendum reminds me so much of the Scottish one and this time the economy is still the weakest point for the campaign to break from the status-quo. It's more about trade deals than currency but the Yes campaign never countered the currency issue, it was always that they will get a deal with the UK because Scotland is great and anyone who says otherwise is 'doing Scotland down'. Gove pretty much used the 'too wee, too poor' characterization of their opponents' arguments yesterday.

Anyway we're sort of going around in circles here.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think if Jeremy isn't capable of a simple task like getting his tax return in on time, something he does every year, I am concerned about his ability to run the country.

Yes, I do trust his ability to make economic decisions - but I also understand trying to manage a national economy in a world still recovering from the Banking Crisis, the refugee crisis, and fluctuating oil prices, is not as simple as some would like to make out/believe. Economics is not binary, no matter how many times you try to convince everyone it is - there are many conflicting theories and views on the best way forward, and they are based on people's beliefs and experiences; that's why Economics is regarded as a "soft science", rather than a hard one.

I also understand that he believes that Britain is better staying in - I'm still on the fence, but I respect his right to hold that view (just like I respect Boris et al's right to have a different view).

You would like to conflate these things together - I hope you find someone who accepts your viewpoint, but I'm not that person..

So do you trust his decision about the Brexit economic consequences?

I personally think he has over sold his message so that it may be seen as hyperbole rather than an authoritative economic assessment but he does have a point ..

I am also thinking of replying in future in large red bold font so that everyone can see the message? What do you think?

[Osem]

More objective? Really? I don't suppose they'd have anything to gain by seeing the UK not being able to compete with them as well as it might. To continue to benefit from our net contribution to their pockets. Other countries have every self serving reason to want us to be shackled to the EU. If you were a member of my club and paying a lot more in subs than anyone else for sweet fa extra in return I'd want you to stay in mate whether I liked you or not.

I know you can't recall it but there really was life before the EU and the UK did rather well for the most part. Those without the UK who have an opinion are probably going to put their interests first rather than ours wouldn't you say? The only people who have anything directly to gain by us leaving is us and as I've stated many times the decision comes down to how much you value sovereignty, our ability to decide our own destiny and all that goes with it. I have confidence that the UK can survive without being part of the EU and do so quite nicely thanks. I also believe that the costs of being in the EU are going to be huge in all sorts of ways and I'd rather we weren't in the club when the wheels finally come off. I value what the UK is and can be far above short term blips in GDP, the value or Sterling etc. and it's perfectly clear to me that the EU is going to impose upon us an ever increasing burden in terms of our contribution, migration and control of our laws, institutions etc. That is their raison d'etre after all. I can see why voting to stay in might be the easier option for some people but IMHO it's the wrong one and over the last few years, the reasons are plain to see across Europe. If things in the EU were tickety boo I could understand why folks might want to stay in but what's been going on in Europe since 2008? Every crisis faced has been handled badly and it's still happening now. How bad does it have to get before people accept that the EU doesn't work and doesn't want to be fixed?...

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I personally think he has over sold his message so that it may be seen as hyperbole rather than an authoritative economic assessment but he does have a point ..

He has a point and the message is quite valid but the details and how they were stated are utter excrement.

The idea that HMT, unable to predict the economy in 12 months, could make even an approximate prediction on the economy in 14 years is absurd.

The manner in which household income was conflated with GDP is misleading.

Describing us as being worse off when the impact claimed was actually slower growth is misleading.

Taking the estimated 2030 figure and dividing it by our current number of households, 27 million, rather than the anticipated 30 million households predicted to be in the UK at that time is misleading.

Producing figures that rely on ongoing historically high levels of immigration, in direct contradiction of a manifesto pledge, to produce the forecast growth was a mistake.

I find it interesting that the government is so fearful of Brexit that they undermine one of their own manifesto pledges to make the case.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

He has a point and the message is quite valid but the details and how they were stated are utter excrement.

The idea that HMT, unable to predict the economy in 12 months, could make even an approximate prediction on the economy in 14 years is absurd.

The manner in which household income was conflated with GDP is misleading.

Describing us as being worse off when the impact claimed was actually slower growth is misleading.

Taking the estimated 2030 figure and dividing it by our current number of households, 27 million, rather than the anticipated 30 million households predicted to be in the UK at that time is misleading.

Producing figures that rely on ongoing historically high levels of immigration, in direct contradiction of a manifesto pledge, to produce the forecast growth was a mistake.

I find it interesting that the government is so fearful of Brexit that they undermine one of their own manifesto pledges to make the case.

It does make you ponder why the Brexit vote was offered in the first place as patently DC & co are so against. They would have won the election without it in the manifesto ..

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ianch99

It does make you ponder why the Brexit vote was offered in the first place as patently DC & co are so against. They would have won the election without it in the manifesto ..

They weren't expecting a majority.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

They weren't expecting a majority.

bit of an own goal then ...