Coronavirus (OLD)

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

I wonder if we'll go into a rolling lockdown whereby people are encourged to go out again when the pressure on the NHS dips and then locked down again when it raises. The risk would be people not understanding why it's important I guess.

China have managed to control this as the people there do what they are told. I worry that a lot in this country won't or don't bother.

Originally Posted by Mr K

It was a stupid, dangerous and reckless theory. But credit to those that make these decisions for realising it and changing tack quickly.

It was an aim that was attainable on the evidence available at that time - our most senior scientists were prepared to stand up and say so. The evidence now available says it is not attainable given our healthcare resources and the likely human cost. The science advances, theories and approaches change. Sadly what hasn’t changed, despite ample evidence to the contrary, is some people’s inability to see anything in our national life through any lens other than that of naked party politics.

---------- Post added at 22:05 ---------- Previous post was at 22:03 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

China have managed to control this as the people there do what they are told. I worry that a lot in this country won't or don't bother.

How delightfully crass of you. You do understand *why* the Chinese people do what their government tells them, don’t you?

[downquark1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

China have managed to control this as the people there do what they are told. I worry that a lot in this country won't or don't bother.

They do as they are told because otherwise they disappear. It's quite likely it will reemerge in China either soon or in the winter.

But yes, I worry that people here are in for a societal wake-up call. We've suddenly turned into a war economy over night.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

It

How delightfully crass of you. You do understand *why* the Chinese people do what their government tells them, don’t you?

Oh yes I realise why, China isn't somewhere I'd want to live. However they've closed their last Coronavirus hospital today, and we need to learn from them and other countries as to how they've managed the situation. even if they did try and keep a lid on it initially.

[AdamD]

Are people panic buying in anyone elses area? I started noticing it a few days ago, but today is even worse.
I can't even access the Ocado website, it says:
You are position 8199 of 8199. Your wait time will be more than two hours.

Tesco has no delivery slots for over 3 weeks in advance now (And the calendar stops at the 3 week mark)
I managed to get an Asda delivery today, but over half of the items were missing, as they were out of stock. (No toilet rolls of course!)
Sainsburys, iceland and asda also have no delivery slots.

I went into the local express stores for both Tesco and Co op, nearly all the shelves were empty of food goods and cleaning stuff, there was no milk, bread, pasta, pasta sauces, toilet rolls or tea.

[adzii_nufc]

Originally Posted by AdamD

Are people panic buying in anyone elses area? I started noticing it a few days ago, but today is even worse.
I can't even access the Ocado website, it says:
You are position 8199 of 8199. Your wait time will be more than two hours.

Tesco has no delivery slots for over 3 weeks in advance now (And the calendar stops at the 3 week mark)
I managed to get an Asda delivery today, but over half of the items were missing, as they were out of stock. (No toilet rolls of course!)
Sainsburys, iceland and asda also have no delivery slots.

I went into the local express stores for both Tesco and Co op, nearly all the shelves were empty of food goods and cleaning stuff, there was no milk, bread, pasta, pasta sauces, toilet rolls or tea.

They are, said a page ago that a local butcher here is crying out to be used, for both his own benefit and ours. So I'm going to. He's got stock and will likely continue to get it. Smaller chain shops here such as Spar/Premier etc also have stocked items.

The same applies as before, stuff exists outside of the mainstream supermarkets. Now more than ever do we have to start using those if people cannot be trusted to make sensible decisions in regards to buying. Otherwise we'll end up needing ration cards or supermarket enforced rationing like Aldi for the most sought after items.

Musclefood are or were still doing deliveries on last look, it's not ideal as the title suggests what you can expect, lean cut, portioned meat with some ready meals thrown in. As before too, as long as the elderly and infants get what they need countrywide, I'll plod on.

I'm still very much planning to continue with fresh food going forward rather than frozen. As long as my partner and kid get fed, I'm not that bothered.

We have a recurring slot with Asda. We have come to rely on it as the nearest supermarket is over half an hour away from here. The app will usually predict good stock levels if you fill the trolley a good few days in advance and they are pretty good at putting in substitutes if what you order isn’t available when they pick it. The thing to watch out for is if you reopen the order to amend it the night before and the stock predictor thinks some of what you’ve already ordered will not now be in stock. In this case it will force you to remove those items from your trolley before you check it out again. So it’s safer to get it right first time and accept substitutes than to miss out altogether - especially as the stock predictor is never 100% accurate so some of the time you will still actually get what you order even if it starts saying you won’t.

I cannot find any paracetamol anywhere only ibuprofen. I'm not supposed to take those because I'm already on an anti inflammatory prescription and my husband can't take them because they upset his stomach.

[downquark1]

Originally Posted by Maggy

I cannot find any paracetamol anywhere only ibuprofen. I'm not supposed to take those because I'm already on an anti inflammatory prescription and my husband can't take them because they upset his stomach.

My mother was complaining about this. You can use the superdrug website to try and reserve some in local branches, but there's no guarantee.

There are 13 cases in Nottinghamshire, out of a local population of 823,126

This is actually less than yesterday (which was 14).

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Chris

That's a false dichotomy (in other words, there are more possible answers than the two you have offered).

The science of this has been explained on various news programmes throughout the day. Radio 4's World at One is a good place to start ... the first 15-20 minutes or so.

In essence, the strategy last week was to attempt a controlled burn through the population, in order to keep within NHS capacity but also to gain widespread immunity to SARS2 (the coronavirus causing coven-19). The progress of the infection generated a ton of new data over the weekend which was analysed at Imperial College London. This data suggested that under that strategy, critical/fatal infections could rise to 250,000 - far too high to sustain.

The strategy has now therefore changed to an increasingly aggressive containment effort. This does two things: first it sacrifices the drive for herd immunity, second it probably keeps the NHS within capacity. It also poses a serious risk: if the virus is still present in the population when restrictions ease, it will flare up again. We are probably therefore in this now for the very long haul.

The extreme long-term nature of the crisis we now face is the reason it was worth trying for herd immunity. I don't think it is fair to characterise this as 'Boris got it wrong' - there are always a range of options, weighted by available evidence. He would have 'got it wrong' by sticking to the same decision in the mount of changing weight of evidence. But he didn't.

Thanks for explaining it.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Paul

This is actually less than yesterday (which was 14).

You still don't get it. The real figure will be massively higher. It's low because they are only testing very few suspected cases. Says more about the lack of testing resource.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Mr K

China have managed to control this as the people there do what they are told. I worry that a lot in this country won't or don't bother.

If people don't do as they are told, they have said that nothing is off the table, including forced containment. I presume this to mean that they will use the police and the army to force people into isolation. Those with the virus who refuse to co-operate.will have their liberty to freely walk about withdrawn.

[downquark1]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

If people don't do as they are told, they have said that nothing is off the table, including forced containment. I presume this to mean that they will use the police and the army to force people into isolation. Those with the virus who refuse to co-operate.will have their liberty to freely walk about withdrawn.

In France you now need to fill out a form any time you want to leave the house. Fines for people found without the form.

There are credible reports in China of people being shut in their apartment blocks with the main doors welded shut. But then it’s a dictatorial regime, with only thinly veiled totalitarian instincts, so nobody should be surprised.