[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think you're going to be in for a shock when the world doesn't roll over to our demands. The idea all these Eurocrats people have been telling us for years are working against our interests will suddenly be willing to help us out is a bit of an illusions. I think we'll get a deal but it will be worse than what we have now especially if we don't have freedom of movement in there.

1. Many countries in the EU do not have a trade surplus with us and they all have to vote Yes for a deal to be done
2. If Britain gets a better deal out of the EU than inside it then everybody will be doing it
3. Dublin, Berlin and Paris will all be looking to steal some of our services sector

We have full access to the single market at the moment. That will probably be restricted and that alone can hit the economy.

Siemens and BMW have also said that the single market helps their sectors: http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2016/ma...nst-brexit.cfm

What we lose in trade with the EU can more than likely be made up in trade with non-EU Countries. Though your argument is fair it is not a reason for anyone to change their vote.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

What we lose in trade with the EU can more than likely be made up in trade with non-EU Countries. Though your argument is fair it is not a reason for anyone to change their vote.

just had a little tot up of what ive got around me .

car-korean
motorcycle- japanese
liquide fuel heating - china
smart phone-china
pc -china
tv- china
oven i,m cooking the chicken in -china
solid fuel stove-russia

and on and on and on .

every thing for lunch is from Lincolnshire with the exception of the broccoli which is from spain .

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Yikes. During today we've gone from 55% of our imports coming from the EU to 75%.

Given there are no tariffs on services it's pretty good that our exports to them are largely these, so that's comforting.

They can't arbitrarily slap tariffs on us. We would default to Most Favoured Nation status within the WTO. We'd be subject, at worst, to the same Common Customs Tariff as everywhere else.

Obviously with 2 years of negotiation before exit we'd have ample opportunity for our market to begin to work with suppliers outside the EU. Outside of the CCT there wouldn't be large tariffs being placed on goods like foods and solar panels in order to protect French farmers or German manufacturers.

It's really not as simple as doom and gloom, neither would it be a smooth and painless transition. It's not beyond the wit of man to get it done.

EDIT: All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.

The Single Market is NOT that important. Vote Leave:

Britain's main export market is no longer the EU

Britain is exporting more goods to countries outside the European Union than to countries inside for the first time since the UK joined the Common Market in the 1970s, official statistics show. And this comes from what I call The Torygraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...er-the-EU.html

---------- Post added at 09:50 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Bored of it all.

Also, being fairly politically engaged as I am, I don't want to listen to politicians that most likely know less about all the issues than I do.

I don't understand why people think politicians somehow are experts on this, they're not.

Ignore the politicians, seek out the facts away from the " official" campaigns.

I'm still 50/50.

Nothing either campaign puts out will affect my decision.

I listen to what they have to say and sometimes it makes my day. Most of them should change career and become stand-up comics but they do not and never have influenced my vote. Like you I consider myself politically savvy since the age of 16 and make my own mind up. The Single Market in my honest opinion is not a good enough reason to vote to stay in the EU. See my post from the Telegraph. I scour the net looking for facts to back up my statements on here unlike some who seem to spout the same garbage the In or Out Campaigns feed them. I agree wholeheartedly with you on this.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

The Single Market is NOT that important. Vote Leave:

Britain's main export market is no longer the EU

Britain is exporting more goods to countries outside the European Union than to countries inside for the first time since the UK joined the Common Market in the 1970s, official statistics show. And this comes from what I call The Torygraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...er-the-EU.html

---------- Post added at 09:50 ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 ----------



I listen to what they have to say and sometimes it makes my day. Most of them should change career and become stand-up comics but they do not and never have influenced my vote. Like you I consider myself politically savvy since the age of 16 and make my own mind up. The Single Market in my honest opinion is not a good enough reason to vote to stay in the EU. See my post from the Telegraph. I scour the net looking for facts to back up my statements on here unlike some who seem to spout the same garbage the In or Out Campaigns feed them. I agree wholeheartedly with you on this.

Your Telegraph link is from nearly 4 years ago, for March-May 2012.

Here are some more recent stats, which support your premise.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...n-EU_Data.aspx

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

just had a little tot up of what ive got around me .

car-korean
motorcycle- japanese
liquide fuel heating - china
smart phone-china
pc -china
tv- china
oven i,m cooking the chicken in -china
solid fuel stove-russia

and on and on and on .

every thing for lunch is from Lincolnshire with the exception of the broccoli which is from spain .

Indeed. I can't thing of anything in my house that comes from the EU. If I shop online for things I sometimes use a Chinese site. It takes a while to get here but the price is right. Can't understand how they do it TBH. I got a watch from said site that cost £3. It would have cost more like £50 in the EU.

[Taf]

TTIP, or at least true understanding of the secret negotiations that are going on between the USA and EU mandarins, would really put a spanner in the works of the pro-EU groups.

The biggest threat to us in the UK since all-out war. And a big reason why the USA wants us to stay part of the EU.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Your Telegraph link is from nearly 4 years ago, for March-May 2012.

Here are some more recent stats, which support your premise.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...n-EU_Data.aspx

My apologies for that. Will teach me to look at the date.

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------

Originally Posted by Taf

TTIP, or at least true understanding of the secret negotiations that are going on between the USA and EU mandarins, would really put a spanner in the works of the pro-EU groups.

The biggest threat to us in the UK since all-out war. And a big reason why the USA wants us to stay part of the EU.

I think the USA have a damn cheek getting involved when they themselves wouldn't do any of the things the EU expects us to do.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Taf

TTIP, or at least true understanding of the secret negotiations that are going on between the USA and EU mandarins, would really put a spanner in the works of the pro-EU groups.

The biggest threat to us in the UK since all-out war. And a big reason why the USA wants us to stay part of the EU.

I tend to think that when the US tells us we should do something it's mainly because it best suits their long term goals, not necessarily ours. Those things are not mutually exclusive of course but the 'special relationship' stuff is the sort of guff you hear when American VIP's visit the UK and tell us how it's their favourite place, blah, blah, blah before heading off to Paris and telling them exactly the same thing.

It's guff, designed to make us feel better and them $$$'s and you can bet that if the UK getting out of the EU better suited the US, they'd soon tell us. Obama has no love of the UK so his 'advice' ought to be treated with scepticism.

With the Hispanic influence in the US growing rapidly, I don't see the UK and US getting any closer politically.

[Bircho]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

The Single Market is NOT that important. Vote Leave:

So around 45% of our exports is not that important. Which business do you run?

One of the few things that the Out campaigners can solidly say is that either we will have a free market with the EU but with that will come freedom of movement and other EU rules (so no point in pulling out as this is what most people seem to object to) or we will be trading with the EU with tariffs - which will mean we cannot trade in everything and given that 50% of our exports to the EU are in services which are the first things that we are most likely not to be able to trade. The remainder will have a charge of at least 4% which along with currency issues may just take the competitive edge of our exports.

Circa £12 billion is some market to try and find elsewhere in the world.

As an operator in that 60% of the economy that doesn't export or import anything, I couldn't care less if we continue to follow some single market rules post Brexit - because those rules can only be made to apply to goods and services that are exported to the single market. They cannot be made to apply to goods and services traded domestically. As a full member of the EU, all the rules apply to all businesses, even if they never trade with another EU country.

[Mr K]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Mr K

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....

you won't need to worry about George or Dave after brexit they will just be unemployment stats.

[techguyone]

Dave's already said he's not running for another term, he might quite like to go after the vote regardless of how it goes, bit like Blair & Brown, poor sap left behind cops the blame.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....

He say householders will be £4.300 worse off a year but like many of his other figures he seems to pluck figures out from nowhere so l wonder what the Brexit side will counter with now as they will probably come out with some pie in the sky claims as well one suspects.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Mr K

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-votes-to-l/
Billions of cuts to the NHS and schools as punishment if you don't vote the right way warns George. Sounds right up his street, not sure why he isn't pro- Brexit....

Codswallop! Pro EU garbage. I wasn't aware the EU contributed to the NHS. Just like the crap we'll all be four grand worse off by 2030 if we leave the EU. How do they know when all their other predictions have been wrong? We'll be in the black by 2015. WRONG! OK by 2017: WRONG! OK by the end of the Parliament: WRONG!! The economy will grow by 3.5% per year till 2020: Oops WRONG!!