Eurozone will collapse...

[Alan Fry]

The trouble is that Germany (and its people) refuse to compromise the fact that Greece/Spain/Portugal/Ireland etc will not tolerate any more spending cuts or reforms. The time to do it (if ever) is when the economy has returned to a sort of "normal"

This does not help the fact they want to save the Euro, if they are prepaired for Europe to face a economic collapse and thus affect the German economy, then they need to scrap all but the least harsh austery measures. How can Greeks accept austerity, when the French, the Dutch and even the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia will not accept them!

This has gone beyond politics and beyond if the EU is a good or bad thing!

Like it or not a United States of Europe will need to emerge and Britain will have to deal with it carfully, we don't have to be a part of it (the other 26 nations can!), but we might lose Northern Ireland in the process

[gba93]

Originally Posted by Alan Fry

Like it or not a United States of Europe will need to emerge and Britain will have to deal with it carfully, we don't have to be a part of it (the other 26 nations can!), but we might lose Northern Ireland in the process

Sorry is that an advantage or disadvantage

[Alan Fry]

Originally Posted by gba93

Sorry is that an advantage or disadvantage

Look I know a lot of you are Anti-EU, but the EU is a flawed organisation, its a badly run half-way house that is going nowhere!

We have a choice we either become part of a superpower (and play a leading role in it) and benefit from it, or we can become a vassal state of one!

[denphone]

Moody's downgrades 15 major banks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-18542691

The credit ratings agency Moody's has downgraded 15 global banks and financial institutions.

The UK banks downgraded were Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC. Lloyds also had its rating cut by Moody's in a separate announcement.

In the US, Bank of America and Citigroup were among those marked down.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said that banks were concerned as the downgrades may make it harder for them to borrow money commercially.

Explaining the decision for the downgrade, Moody's global banking managing director Greg Bauer highlighted the banks' exposure to volatility in the world's financial markets.

He said that all of the banks affected by the downgrades had "significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses".

The other institutions that have been downgraded are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse, UBS, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada.

The first fracture in the Euro might be in Italy ... Several senior parliamentarians are now loudly proclaiming that the country could do perfectly well thank you very much if they reintroduced the Lira and indulged in a little competitive devaluation, and are suggesting they might push for this if Mario Monti, the Euro-Quisling currently occupying the prime minister's office in Rome, is not able to extract concessions from Angela Merkel this week.

The mood music coming from the Germans, however, is not sounding good. They seem determined to stick to their guns (no debt mutualisation without fiscal union).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...t-at-home.html

Surely fiscal union is a must if they are going to share their debts? Otherwise they'll be back in the same position in a few years time....

It is. But as fiscal union effectively means Germany guaranteeing everyone's debts, Germany is calling the shots. Germany will not go for FU as the first step; it sees it as a desirable end goal. FU without first reforming the member economies and instilling them with German-style budgetary discipline is anathema to them - they see it as much the same as handing your credit card and PIN number to your teenage daughter so she can go shopping with her pals.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Chris

The first fracture in the Euro might be in Italy ... Several senior parliamentarians are now loudly proclaiming that the country could do perfectly well thank you very much if they reintroduced the Lira and indulged in a little competitive devaluation, and are suggesting they might push for this if Mario Monti, the Euro-Quisling currently occupying the prime minister's office in Rome, is not able to extract concessions from Angela Merkel this week.

The mood music coming from the Germans, however, is not sounding good. They seem determined to stick to their guns (no debt mutualisation without fiscal union).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...t-at-home.html

Wonder how much of this is a result of the talks with Hollande in Rome last week? Could we be seeing the start of a French/Italian alliance ganging up on the Germans?

[Osem]

Cyprus to ask for bailout from eurozone partners

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18586532

It said it needs help to shore up its banks, which are heavily exposed to the Greek economy.

Shares in Italy, Spain and Greece fell sharply amid concerns that an EU summit this week will again fail to produce a deal to shore up the euro.

The Italian and Spanish indexes both closed about 4% down. The fall on Spain's Ibex index was exacerbated by a Reuters report that the Moody's credit rating agency is planning to downgrade Spain's banks.

Earlier, Spain formally requested a bailout loan for its banking sector, expected to be for up to 100bn euros (£80.2bn, $125bn).

So it seems things are looking up in Europe then?

[Osem]

Deep divisions between Germany and France?

At this critical time, France and Germany are on different pages. It has generally been true that the European project has been driven forward when France and Germany are in step. They are not at the moment. There is a deep philosophical and political divide between them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18591931

So how many shoes have to drop before anything collapses?

This is beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf..When the crunch finally happens we won't believe it.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

So how many shoes have to drop before anything collapses?

This is beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf..When the crunch finally happens we won't believe it.

Maybe the thread title needs changing to The Eurozone will collapse eventually

[Osem]

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has said Spain cannot afford to finance itself for long at current rates.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18606817

Wonder if this has anything to do with Merkel's recently repeated refusal to accept Eurobonds and the distinct feeling that not enough is being done to get to grips with this impending catastrophe. The pressure's really building on Frau Merkel and I reckon the blame game won't be long coming.

http://www.expatica.com/de/news/loca...ar_235819.html

http://news.yahoo.com/eurobonds-econ...111111634.html

Originally Posted by Maggy J

So how many shoes have to drop before anything collapses?

This is beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf..When the crunch finally happens we won't believe it.

It's already happening. The formal withdrawl of one or more member states from the single currency isn't the starting point of the collapse (mind you, it's not the end, either). From what I'm reading, the financial markets have for some time now been treating their dealings with each Eurozone member as if they are dealing with a country that belongs to a fixed exchange rate mechanism, rather than a single currency. So far as the money bags are concerned, it's already a done deal.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Chris

It's already happening. The formal withdrawl of one or more member states from the single currency isn't the starting point of the collapse (mind you, it's not the end, either). From what I'm reading, the financial markets have for some time now been treating their dealings with each Eurozone member as if they are dealing with a country that belongs to a fixed exchange rate mechanism, rather than a single currency. So far as the money bags are concerned, it's already a done deal.

We can only hope that this belief will mean that when the 'inevitable' happens, the fallout won't be quite as bad as it would have been had they accepted the Eurocrats' version of reality.