Brexit (Old)

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I think that is the lazy view. As you know, there is a deep imbalance on trade between the UK and the EU. Wealth generation depends on either reversing that imbalance (Brexit doesn't help but it's there whatever) or increasing our trade elsewhere through our endeavours. We can do that whether or not we are in the EU.

I think we pretty much have a trade imbalance with lots of countries, not just the EU but also the US and others. Part of our problem is that free trade is easiest in manufactured goods and not services and we focus on the latter.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Mr K

If we ever do back in the EU we probably won't get the opt out/rebates we used to have. Its far from perfect, like most large organisations, but we might realise 'we never had it so good'.

Don't fret, Mr K. We ain't never going back!

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don't fret, Mr K. We ain't never going back!

Maybe because we'll never 'really' leave it's got all the all the signs of BRINO.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Maybe because we'll never 'really' leave it's got all the all the signs of BRINO.

Exactly Mr K. You can't go back when you're still there.

[OLD BOY]

We will either leave the EU with a good deal for Britain and the EU, or we will transition into WTO rules.

Staying in the EU is not an option because that would be seen as a betrayal of the electorate.

I'm surprised we are still talking about staying in the EU! That's not going to happen.

[Sephiroth]

With the current political instability, no-body can be certain as to what is going to happen.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

With the current political instability, no-body can be certain as to what is going to happen.

Exactly, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

We will either leave the EU with a good deal for Britain and the EU, or we will transition into WTO rules.

Staying in the EU is not an option because that would be seen as a betrayal of the electorate.

I'm surprised we are still talking about staying in the EU! That's not going to happen.

You may find this recent Twitter thread informative (it’s from someone who was a WTO negotiator).

tl:dr - it’s not that simple (or easy)

https://mobile.twitter.com/DmitryOpi...80819464101888

Some of his points

1/ Hi. I've negotiated in the WTO, unlike the author of this article who appears to have read the title of some WTO agreements and inferred a system which does not exist.

This article is incorrect on every count.

I am so sick of writing these threads I could vomit.

2/ The SPS and TBT agreements call for technical regulations to be evidence based, to serve a policy objective and to minimally distort trade.

They do NOT prevent, for example, the EU from requiring certification by an EU authority (which, absent an agreement, UKs won't be).

3/ To use a contrived example, the amount of lead paint on a toy shipped to Europe won't change.

However, UK issued documentation stating the toys lead content will no longer be accepted because the regulations require an EU entity issued certificate.

4/ The WTO cannot prevent this and it certainly cannot force the EU to accept goods bearing a certificate it no longer trusts.

5/ Of the hundreds of complaints raised in the Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade or SPS Committee, only a tiny fraction go to dispute resolution, where they tend to go nowhere.

I don't care what your textbook says about how trade law is meant to work. This is how it does.

6/ The Trade Facilitation Agreement is even more toothless. It's a largely unenforceable best endeavor agreement to encourage some lowest common denominator best practice in goods clearance.

I covered the TFA for Australia guys. I WISH it was some all powerful codex. It's not.

7/ Even if the letter of the WTO rules were 100% on the UKs side (it's not), the very slow and uncertain pace of WTO 'enforcement' renders the whole thing a little moot.

Disputes take years and can't force regulatory changes, only allow tariff retaliation.

8/ No one is disputing that eventually, the UK will be able to trade under WTO rules.

The problem with the 'No deal will be fine' rhetoric is that it may convince government and businesses not to put in place the hundreds of preparations required to manage the long transition.

9/ This all also glosses over the many areas the WTO doesn't even pretend to cover.

Everything from certification for pilots to lisencing for truck drivers and foreign presence for banks is well beyond the WTO Agreements.

10/
Stop saying stupid things.
Stop writing stupid articles.
You can be concerned about the practicalities of Brexit without being a Remainer.
The WTO won't save you. This stuff needs a fix.

---------- Post added at 15:11 ---------- Previous post was at 15:10 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Exactly, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Not sure about that...

[Dave42]

Europe really doesn't need us as much as we need them


But the facts speak for themselves: We are 65 million of a bloc of 450 million. Ours is a $2.9trn (£2.2trn) economy, they are $19trn (£14.6trn) They represent 44% of our exports. We, just 9% of theirs. They are 27 - we are one

https://news.sky.com/story/europe-re...-them-11462776

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Dave42

Europe really doesn't need us as much as we need them

But the facts speak for themselves: We are 65 million of a bloc of 450 million. Ours is a $2.9trn (£2.2trn) economy, they are $19trn (£14.6trn) They represent 44% of our exports. We, just 9% of theirs. They are 27 - we are one

https://news.sky.com/story/europe-re...-them-11462776

Factually spot on. I would be interested to hear what Brexit protagonists make of this demolition of their argument that the EU27 need us more than we need them.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Factually spot on. I would be interested to hear what Brexit protagonists make of this demolition of their argument that the EU27 need us more than we need them.

Just because some Leave twit said that the "EU27 needs us more than we need them" does make that grounds for glib demolition. I doubt that the majority of leavers paid attention to that. They may well have noted, though, that the EU, or at least powerful parts thereof, make a tidy sum on their trade surplus with us.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Factually spot on. I would be interested to hear what Brexit protagonists make of this demolition of their argument that the EU27 need us more than we need them.

I don't think sensible protagonists have ever thought that.

What they do think, is that we do a lot of trade with a lot of the other 27 that makes continuing to do the trade as easy as possible a sensible goal for all parties.

And us leaving, leaves a sizeable hole in the EU budget that the majority of the 27 are unable to fill.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I don't think sensible protagonists have ever thought that.

What they do think, is that we do a lot of trade with a lot of the other 27 that makes continuing to do the trade as easy as possible a sensible goal for all parties.

And us leaving, leaves a sizeable hole in the EU budget that the majority of the 27 are unable to fill.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I don't think sensible protagonists have ever thought that.

What they do think, is that we do a lot of trade with a lot of the other 27 that makes continuing to do the trade as easy as possible a sensible goal for all parties.

And us leaving, leaves a sizeable hole in the EU budget that the majority of the 27 are unable to fill.

Well put, Pierre.

[Sephiroth]

I read in a newspaper analysis today(I forget which) something that absolutely chimed with me. It was in relation to the EU breaking Article 8 (and indeed Article 50) by not negotiating with us to bring about a decent agreement.

The article highlighted the difference between the UK which has a flexible unwritten constitution and the rest of the EU that are rules based in their Treaty documents and thus totally inflexible. Aka we look alike but don't think alike.

Put that into the mix with the Guvmin's total bodge job, a Canada style deal is something we should jump at just to get the job done. Except that they want to tie up the £39 billion first and May now cannot give them that scot free and survive.

But the political situation here is so volatile, and the Chequers deal must not be allowed to survive, that it's either going to be a fudge or a political change and a second referendum.