Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Originally Posted by Chris

The polls were carried out in the immediate aftermath of the row blowing up over the pound and Salmond's typically pugilistic response.

It's difficult to get across to someone in England just how loathed the Tories are up here. Yes, they have a core vote of around 16% but outside of that they're about as welcome as bacon butties at a bar mitzvah. Any Tory saying or doing anything with regards to Scotland will immediately elicit a contrary response from a significant section of the Scottish public. This is why Salmond is so desperate to get a TV debate with Cameron, and why Cameron has had the good sense to refuse.

However, Darling (for it is he who is pulling the strings) is playing a blinder. He has got Balls, Alexander and Osborne singing from the same hymn sheet and at a point in the debate which has forced Salmond to expend his ammo far too early. You don't need to worry about the immediate reaction. The Scottish electorate is not stupid and the cold, hard facts about currency, and EU membership will weigh heavily on the debate from now on, with people increasingly dwelling on the message rather than the messenger.

And remember, the only poll that counts is the one where you mark an X in the box. People tend to think much more carefully about the ballot box than an opinion poll.

But how does Better Together make it clear that the rejection of a Currency Union is not a bluff? Otherwise this will undermine the whole thing, if most Scots think they're getting in anyway.

Most Scots don't think it's a bluff. Polling has shown that a clear majority think the pound will not be on offer in the event of a Yes vote. They have been showing this for some time, certainly long before this week's events. Polling has also shown for some time that Scots want to keep the pound. These two facts will work together in the coming months.

As I said, the facts about the pound and EU membership are now on the table, and will remain there. Salmond will be under continual pressure to reveal his Plan B until he either does a U-turn, or makes himself look utterly ridiculous.

[zaax]

The EU won't be on offer either.
All goods imported into the EU will have a 17.5% VAT rate added. There may not be a duty rate except on sugar, Ireland will ask for the excise duty on Scotch to be doubled to protect Jameson's whiskey.

Another tidbit that has gone largely unreported this week is that Lloyds TSB has registered the new holding company for the TSB Bank, which it is due to sell off, in England, for tax purposes. The company said it was concerned about the impact on the sale, if the company had been Scottish-registered, because investors believe there are too many unanswered questions over the tax regime of an independent Scotland.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...land-move.html

The TSB was founded in Scotland in 1810 and will continue to be registered as a bank in Scotland, although that will be cold comfort to John Swinney who in the event of a Yes vote will not be able to tax the company's profits. Those will flow into the UK exchequer in London.

Standard Life, which is registered in Scotland but has most of its pensions customers elsewhere in the UK, is also said to be somewhat concerned for its future. And I bet they're not the only ones.

This is good, the nearer we get to the referendum, the more businesses are prepared to abandon attempts to curry favour with the current office holders in Edinburgh in favour of looking out for their long-term interests.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Kind of concerned there is a bounce in Yes to be honest. Can't believe that such obvious nationalist populism resonates better than the practicalities of the economy. It's always been my assumption that most of politicking is a side-show that matters little, bar a minority of ideologues, and the fundamentals of jobs, pensions and mortgages tend to decide elections.

I see what you're saying about this being a temporary boost that will then give way to the practical questions of independence but that polling suggests most Scots believe Westminster is bluffing. That would explain why there hasn't been a boost in the No polling and why they believe that Westminster is 'bulling' Scotland.

It's also quite surprising that, according to the poll, a large number of Scots seem to honestly believe that rUK would be willing to lose some sovereignty over our currency and risk being on the hook for Scottish banks. It's not as if we haven't got an example of us rejecting currency unions before nor have a pretty good example of why a Currency Union without closer political union isn't a good idea.

Again I am not sure they quite understand what they will be voting for in September. That they are voting for Independence and not just a slightly greater degree of freedom from Westminster. They won't get to leave the Union but keep everything they like about it. Get to have a better country but still depend on the rest of the Union for the things it does well.

Salmond really is a snake oil merchant with a brass neck that would make any of the main political parties leaders blush. I quite like the story about him in the Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/leader...ded-submission



Hasn't changed much then. Only this time that ice cream will not only be cheaper, it will be healthier and you can have as much as you like without getting fat. For free.

Some folks just like to hear what they want to hear. Think about all those people who ran up totally unserviceable levels of expenditure and debt in spite of all the warnings about what would inevitably happen. It's the triumph of hope and even despair over reality.

Originally Posted by Osem

Some folks just like to hear what they want to hear. Think about all those people who ran up totally unserviceable levels of expenditure and debt in spite of all the warnings about what would inevitably happen. It's the triumph of hope and even despair over reality.

But even then there is a tangible benefit to better public services and a ideology that favours higher public spending. In this case there is little other than emotion...

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

But even then there is a tangible benefit to better public services and a ideology that favours higher public spending. In this case there is little other than emotion...

I was actually referring to personal spending and debt. However as with public spending, unless the money borrowed is well spent it doesn't guarantee anything except greater debt. which sooner or later has to be repaid along with vast amounts of interest which buys nothing. There are plenty of foolish and naïve people around.

As for the yes voters, well there's nowt as queer as folk...

An ICM/Scotland on Sunday poll out today shows a slight increase in the No vote and no change in the Yes vote since the UK parties confirmed a separate Scotland would not have a currency union with rUK.

I've also since heard people criticising Survation, the organisation which did the Daily Mail poll during last week which showed a slight uptick for Yes.

Either way it hasn't at this stage crippled either campaign and when undecideds and definite abstainers are stripped out, the underlying figures are now as they ever have been, namely about 38 Yes 62 No. Which after a campaign that has already been on for well over a year, is pretty damning for Salmond.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Seems the EU has pitched Salmond another curved ball:



Paywall linky

An independent Scotland will not inherit the rest of the UK's EU VAT exemption on certain goods and reduced rate on domestic energy.

That's just more 'bullying' for you. Salmond's got it all under control...

... and now Ed Miliband is the latest to kick sand in Alec's face:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...-Minister.html

Ed Miliband today warned Scots that it would “simply not be possible” for them to share the pound if they left the UK while he was Prime Minister.

The Labour leader rejected Alex Salmond’s claim that the decision of the three main UK parties to rule out a currency union amounted to “nastiness” or a mere “campaign tactic”.

He said he would “deeply regret” Scotland leaving the UK but it is “simply economic common sense” for the English, Welsh and Northern Irish not to agree to a eurozone-style deal to share the pound.

At what point do we question how much we're willing to put with this level of bullying?

[Mr Angry]

"....if they left the UK while he was Prime Minister".

You can always rely on Ed for a laugh.

[Chad]

Originally Posted by Mr Angry

"....if they left the UK while he was Prime Minister".

You can always rely on Ed for a laugh.

If Scotland votes for independence this September they won't actually break away until March 2016.

Originally Posted by Chad

If Scotland votes for independence this September they won't actually break away until March 2016.

The proposed separation date is just another one of Alex Salmond's assertions. Unlike the currency and EU membship, that one hasn't come under any scrutiny - yet. In the unlikely event of a Yes vote, the negotiations will take as long as they take, and won't be subject to a timetable dictated by the SNP, who continually forget that most of their promises hinge on the goodwill of people and organisations they have spent the last 18 months royally slagging off at every opportunity.

Even so, I suspect Mr A may have been chuckling at Ed's presumption of being Prime Minister after next May. Or ever.

It's all well and good for Salmond to keep up the braveheart rubbish but he has to realise that the Scots are not stupid enough to vote yes on that alone and that he was going to have to answer serious questions in most of his plans. It's worrying that he has nothing to offer in answer to latest events then to retreat into some lala land of denial that he seems to believe and expects others to just go along with. Right now unless I've missed something he's about as credible politically as sooty and sweep.