Russia has invaded Ukraine

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/losi...m_medium=email

Losing in Every Dimension

An Assessment of Russia's Strategic Position in 2026, (Part 1)

… Vladimir Putin is losing — not in one or two dimensions of the conflict, but in every dimension by which one might honestly measure strategic progress — military, cognitive, moral, industrial, and economic. His only viable claim to advantage at present is the disposition of the American president.

… Now, for the first time since the invasion began, Russia is losing more troops than it is mobilising. Since the start of 2026, according to Ukrainian General Staff estimates, Russian forces lost over 160,000 personnel killed or seriously wounded. March 2026 alone produced 35,000 Russian casualties — a single-month record for the entire conflict. The Kremlin had targeted daily recruitment of between 1,100 and 1,150 personnel; the actual figure has fallen to approximately 940. For four consecutive months from December 2025, Russia’s losses have exceeded its intake.

The cost of territorial gain has also risen sharply. According to figures from Russia Matters and the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia suffered 200 casualties for each square mile taken in 2025. But, in the first five months of 2026 with a net gain of 17 square miles, it suffered over 9600 casualties for each. In the past three months, the capture of territory has moved in Ukraine’s favour.

Russia’s spring offensive against the Fortress Belt opened in mid-March with large, armoured column attacks and produced catastrophic losses in its opening days, with the Institute for the Study of War assessing that the seizure of the Belt in 2026 is unlikely. Russia has been forced to redeploy elite Airborne and naval infantry units southward to respond to Ukrainian counterattacks — cannibalising its offensive timetable to plug defensive holes. Putin’s “meat grinder” is grinding through Russian men faster than Russia can produce them without much in the way of results on the battlefield.

[Carth]

The whole thing has now descended into something akin to kids throwing bricks at each other over a wall, each side claiming massive victories whilst maintaining their innocence.

To be honest, I've lost interest in the 'war' . . . not only because we keep throwing money at them to buy more bricks.

Originally Posted by Carth

The whole thing has now descended into something akin to kids throwing bricks at each other over a wall, each side claiming massive victories whilst maintaining their innocence.

To be honest, I've lost interest in the 'war' . . . not only because we keep throwing money at them to buy more bricks.

Thanks for that, Lieutenant General (HM Armchair Regiment).

Meanwhile in the real world, the reason Russia’s assaults are flagging, as much as the drone slaughter on the frontlines, is the as-yet not widely reported attacks Ukraine has been making on Russia’s deep rear for the past several weeks. This is largely unreported because non-specialist news correspondents are obsessed with the movements of front lines, and these aren’t moving very much in either direction.

But Crimea is running out of fuel, and fresh water; the Kerch Bridge is too at-risk to use, the ferry route is under constant threat of bombardment, and lorries on the so-called ‘land bridge’ route along the occupied southeast coast of Ukraine are being taken out daily by long-range Ukrainian drones in what Americans might call ‘Turkey shoot’.

Just as nobody listened to the online analysts who pointed out that the 40-mile armoured column aimed at Kyiv in 2022 was a sign of Russian weakness, not strength, until it ground to a halt and started getting blown up, so nobody is as yet taking much notice of the destruction of Russian logistics way behind the front lines.

[Carth]

War over by the weekend then?

Nope, didn't think so, it's gonna drag on a fair while yet

[thenry]

If only allies pulled out of Ukraine