Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
What are the chances of Scotland leaving the UK if they hold a Referendem? Surely the consequences for both Countries would be dire?
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Highly unlikely.
It's difficult to appreciate from outside Scotland, but over the last 4 years the SNP has actually done a pretty competent job of running the country, despite being a minority administration. Add to that the fact that Alex Salmond was the only party leader who actually looked like a First Minister.
All this has had the effect of separating the SNP from the issue of separatism. The Scottish electorate simply no longer sees an SNP vote as an independence vote. Alex Salmond, furthermore, isn't a blinkered ideologue - he is well aware that he hasn't won power on an independence ticket, or even an independence referendum ticket (not that you'd know this by reading the political editor's blog on the BBC - there are some complete fruit loops commenting on there that think an independent Scotland is now little more than a formality).
We are most likely now going to get a referendum at some point in the next 4 years, but unless opinion in Scotland changes radically, that referendum will not return a 'yes' vote.
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