[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[heero_yuy]

He'll do a Chamberlain: Waving a symbolic piece of paper and declaring he got the best deal.

Lies of course but I hope the sheeple don't fall for it.

[Osem]

The difference being we all know much more about what's going on in Europe in a way we didn't before WWII. Don't get me wrong, he may do just that but I don't see it working.

[Julian]

of course he could fudge the whole issue and not hold a referendum at all.

What's the worst that could happen to him?

People won't vote Labour........

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Julian

of course he could fudge the whole issue and not hold a referendum at all.

Indeed if you take his words apart on this he ONLY promised a referendum on a CHANGED relationship with the EU. If he can't get any significant concessions he could claim that no referendum is needed. I suspect he could be that duplicitous.

What's the worst that could happen to him?

People won't vote Labour........

Most sensible people won't but there are some....

[Ignitionnet]

Wise words from Frederick Forsyth.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Osem

It doesn't matter what Cameron wants or does. He's not going to get anything significant by way of concessions from the Eurocrats and vested interests so we'll all be left with a very simple choice - leave the ship before it sinks or stay aboard and go down with it. For me it's not even a close call anymore.

Yep. We're looking at Australia if the UK votes in.

---------- Post added at 22:28 ---------- Previous post was at 22:24 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Wise words from Frederick Forsyth.

fantastic speech

[TheDaddy]

I was anti EU long before it was fashionable but now the moment of truth is coming I wonder what will be on the table if we do leave. I don't believe the scenarios UKIP paints. It'd just be nice to get the facts and not the spin

[Matth]

Those who fight to stay in will paint leaving as a great unknown, a leap in the dark.

But staying in the EU is also a great unknown, and I'd sooner take the one where we are responsible for our own destiny, than the one where we inevitably surrender more and more control.

[heero_yuy]

Given that Cameron will have very little to offer for staying in expect the stay campaign to be a mis-mash of scare stories and mass unemployment lies.

Scaremongering is how the SNP dismissed every single warning from the Unionists in the referendum and it turns out the volatility of oil wasn't an invalid concern.

Would there be anything the 'In' campaign could say that wouldn't be liable to be dismissed as scaremongering? If the argument is to argue for the status-quo then by definition it will be about what will be lost and therefore a negative 'scaremongering' argument.

It's going to be a brutal campaign I think but such as the In campaign will have alarmist warnings the Out campaign will dismiss real concerns as scaremongering and promise a brighter future they may not be able to deliver. For example there is no guarantee all these trade deals we would negotiate independently of the EU will materialise or be as favorable as the Outters are suggesting. The Out side isn't above lying either.

[Mr K]

It'll be a comfortable vote to stay in; the referendum wouldn't be happening otherwise.

The public will vote how they are told to vote by the Govt., and their media chums. Scare stories about withdrawal will be wheeled out on a daily basis for sevaral months in advance. Always works as the British public are easily manipulated.

[Osem]

I can only speak for myself but I don't need scaremongering to influence me to vote out. There's enough clearly scary stuff going on in the EU/Eurozone at the moment to make me believe that staying in would be worse than anything which results from us getting out.

Let's not pretend leaving is the easy, risk free option either. Leaving will be momentous and will create all sorts of issues for the UK but it's better than staying in an organisation which has time and time again shown itself to be as unwilling to accept meaningful reform as it is unable to tackle the major economic and social problems it has largely brought upon itself.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Damien

Scaremongering is how the SNP dismissed every single warning from the Unionists in the referendum and it turns out the volatility of oil wasn't an invalid concern.

Would there be anything the 'In' campaign could say that wouldn't be liable to be dismissed as scaremongering? If the argument is to argue for the status-quo then by definition it will be about what will be lost and therefore a negative 'scaremongering' argument.

It's going to be a brutal campaign I think but such as the In campaign will have alarmist warnings the Out campaign will dismiss real concerns as scaremongering and promise a brighter future they may not be able to deliver. For example there is no guarantee all these trade deals we would negotiate independently of the EU will materialise or be as favorable as the Outters are suggesting. The Out side isn't above lying either.

Forsyth was spot on when he said that we are getting the worst of both worlds right now.

Do you imagine for one second that the UK public will agree to deeper integration, with joining the Euro and Schengen area just for starters, followed by the various other trappings?

Do you imagine for one second that the core EU's idea of a two-speed Europe isn't whether we join the Euro and Schengen sooner or later?

There is no way the public is going to even for a moment entertain joining the Euro and Schengen as both have been proven to be an utter mess. That leaves the status quo and Brexit. The status quo hasn't been kind to us at all, we conceded sovereignty and pay a fair chunk of change for very little net gain and a big trade deficit, which leaves Brexit.

The EU has had more than enough opportunity to reform but has chosen not to. Perhaps Brexit will either kick their backsides into gear and make them deal with the issues or alternatively cause others to question the status quo more strongly.

I very much doubt it will kick their backsides into gear, they'll more likely than not accelerate the integration programme as the solution to every problem appears to be deeper integration and more Europe. How'd that work out for Eurozone members Greece and Cyprus compared with the EFTA member Iceland?

Given the farce that has been our 'renegotiation' I can't see a referendum in the early part of 2016. That leaves a nice big summer rush of a million plus refugees into the EU and the resultant chaos and disorder - I note Greece reporting issues not just at their frontiers but now in Athens, with hordes of economic migrants behaving like mafioso alongside vandalism of property and lawlessness.

Originally Posted by Mr K

It'll be a comfortable vote to stay in; the referendum wouldn't be happening otherwise.

The public will vote how they are told to vote by the Govt., and their media chums. Scare stories about withdrawal will be wheeled out on a daily basis for sevaral months in advance. Always works as the British public are easily manipulated.

Except you, obviously, and those who agree with you...

I always find it interesting when people disparage others who hold different views on topics with ad hominem attacks, and denigrate others' intellectual or decision-making capabilities - heaven forbid it could be they who might not have an open mind or be capable of learning new things that may change their views...

[peanut]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Except you, obviously, and those who agree with you...

I always find it interesting when people disparage others who hold different views on topics with ad hominem attacks, and denigrate others' intellectual or decision-making capabilities - heaven forbid it could be they who might not have an open mind or be capable of learning new things that may change their views...

But he does have a point. I can put my hands up and quite honestly say I know nothing at all about the pros and cons of being in or out. Does anyone actually do or enough to make a proper uniformed decision? It seems some people have already made up their own minds without knowing all these facts.

It's not exactly top of my agenda to really find out let alone care. So my vote will probably be based on whatever I care to listen to nearer the time. Or basically what will be spoon fed to me I suppose or who I believe the most.