Reform UK's chronicles

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Itshim

Seems sky news via You Gov disagrees with you. Check it out this morning

I did see the Sky News reports. But I chose the link I gave because it was middle of the road.

Anyway, what matters is the next General Election. A big problem for Reform that I foresee is that they may well win the local elections hands down but then cannot deliver their programme for financial reasons. Then they'll be hammered at the GE.

Hence my assessment of peak-Reform.

[Itshim]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I did see the Sky News reports. But I chose the link I gave because it was middle of the road.

Anyway, what matters is the next General Election. A big problem for Reform that I foresee is that they may well win the local elections hands down but then cannot deliver their programme for financial reasons. Then they'll be hammered at the GE.

Hence my assessment of peak-Reform.

History repeats it's self , discription so fits labour , talk the talk won't , can't or just too divided to walk the walk.

[Sephiroth]

I doubt that Reform UK will be as divided as Labour.

My hope is that the Conservatives will work tactically with Reform UK to get Labour out. Kemi has ruled that out, but there's a lot of muck to flow under the bridge before that needs to become a reality.

But Kemi needs to purge her front bench of losers such as Patel, Atkins, Cleverley who exemplify the self-serving, self-important politicos who helped bring the Tories down. Otherwise, Reform has to go it alone and when push comes to shove, they may not convince enough people in a spread across the UK to give them a majority.

[Dingbat]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

.But Kemi needs to purge her front bench of losers such as Patel, Atkins, Cleverley who exemplify the self-serving, self-important politicos who helped bring the Tories down. Otherwise, Reform has to go it alone and when push comes to shove, they may not convince enough people in a spread across the UK to give them a majority.

Most of those Tory “losers” left the Tories and joined Reform.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I doubt that Reform UK will be as divided as Labour.

My hope is that the Conservatives will work tactically with Reform UK to get Labour out. Kemi has ruled that out, but there's a lot of muck to flow under the bridge before that needs to become a reality.

But Kemi needs to purge her front bench of losers such as Patel, Atkins, Cleverley who exemplify the self-serving, self-important politicos who helped bring the Tories down. Otherwise, Reform has to go it alone and when push comes to shove, they may not convince enough people in a spread across the UK to give them a majority.

The trouble is Reform UK is stuffed full of Tory rejects who are unlikely to get on well with the current Conservative Party. And Reform UK's USP of not being Labour or Conservative falls apart if they do work tactically together. I don't think the Labour Party has a similar issue with current and former MPs joining the Green Party, but I could be wrong.

It's looking like an interesting five-horse race in the next General Election so a coalition government could well be a possibility. Certainbly Reform UK or any other party governing on its own with just 25% of the vote would not go down well. But a coalition of Reform with another political party would undermine its USP. I'm not sure how you square the circle on these two points as Reform UK's share of the vote is unlikely to grow much given it's competing with four other parties, particularly as Badnoch is taking advantage of Starmer's political ineptitude.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Dingbat

Most of those Tory “losers” left the Tories and joined Reform.

That’s easy to say. Rolls off the tongue and it’s tempting.

But the three I listed are self-serving and were more incompetent that Jenrick &, dare I say, Braverman. Zahawi - yes, loser imo.


---------- Post added at 13:14 ---------- Previous post was at 13:11 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The trouble is Reform UK is stuffed full of Tory rejects who are unlikely to get on well with the current Conservative Party. And Reform UK's USP of not being Labour or Conservative falls apart if they do work tactically together. I don't think the Labour Party has a similar issue with current and former MPs joining the Green Party, but I could be wrong.

It's looking like an interesting five-horse race in the next General Election so a coalition government could well be a possibility. Certainbly Reform UK or any other party governing on its own with just 25% of the vote would not go down well. But a coalition of Reform with another political party would undermine its USP. I'm not sure how you square the circle on these two points as Reform UK's share of the vote is unlikely to grow much given it's competing with four other parties, particularly as Badnoch is taking advantage of Starmer's political ineptitude.

You are absolutely right. More’s the pity for the least worse solution in getting Labour out and avoiding a hung Parliament.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The trouble is Reform UK is stuffed full of Tory rejects who are unlikely to get on well with the current Conservative Party. And Reform UK's USP of not being Labour or Conservative falls apart if they do work tactically together. I don't think the Labour Party has a similar issue with current and former MPs joining the Green Party, but I could be wrong.

It's looking like an interesting five-horse race in the next General Election so a coalition government could well be a possibility. Certainbly Reform UK or any other party governing on its own with just 25% of the vote would not go down well. But a coalition of Reform with another political party would undermine its USP. I'm not sure how you square the circle on these two points as Reform UK's share of the vote is unlikely to grow much given it's competing with four other parties, particularly as Badnoch is taking advantage of Starmer's political ineptitude.

I don’t agree. Reform UK has taken on those right wing Conservatives who have become disillusioned with the failure of the party to deal with the issues they care about. They got shouted down when they tried to point out the obvious.

Reform UK is a United party, not split between left and right, which is something that has plagued Labour and Conservatives alike with their obsession with pleasing the middle ground. The only real opposition Reform has got comes from other right wing parties, most notably the Conservatives, who for the time being at least have lost credibility.

[Sephiroth]

It is difficult to be sure that Reform UK is a united party. It isn’t yet well honed as a political machine and the grass roots are very likely to be ordinary people whose preference is to overturn the main parties but are not further involved. Also, Rupert Lowe has shown the asplit in the party, albeit not having caught on significantly.

Reform UK has a fantastic top trio, plus I have respect for Jenrick. But the rest of the trustworthy leadership is yet to emerge. Of course, the lefties here will seize on my use of the word “trustworthy” in rfespect o f Reform UK. But that’s what it boils down to.

I would trust Farage only to the extent that I would trust an enlarged top team; and that’s a long way off.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Seriously, is that how you read it?

Err, how else to you read "Vote Green"

Maybe you need a new pair of glasses.