Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jem

Yes, OK, arguably right. But then what?

Suppose the US carry out a decapitation strike, kill the ‘Supreme Leader’, many if not all of the government - what do you think will happen? There is no opposition party (presumably pro-western) ready and organised to take over. Most likely the entire country will collapse into anarchy, unless the US is prepared to ‘put boots on the ground’ in large numbers and, basically take the country over and run it.

And that is easier said than done, although people may have no real love for the existing regime, they tend to resent a regime forced on them from outside. I do fear that this will make Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan look like a bad cold in terms of US and Iranian casualties.

Always, always have a clearly defined exit strategy, not just ‘oh this isn’t working and the polls are against us, so we are basically going to just pull out and leave chaos behind us, and naturally this wont foster a load of terrorist groups, all of which now have a hatred on the US - well it’ll be something for a future administration to deal with’.

For the US, removing the current regime in Iran is fairly easy, dealing with the consequences, isn’t. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that the current US administration has the foresight to understand this.

You make an excellent point. It boils down to the question as to whether or not the USA has got the ducks lined up for managing Iran in the short term after unseating the mullahs.

The Shia/Sunni thing could well stand in the way of that in terms of finding a solution that has a chance.

It may boil down to bringing back the Pahalavi bloke under a plan that is internationally endorsed.

So yes - we have a serious problem looming. But still, the mullahs need to be offed in every sense.

[thenry]

Mixed reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-late...#liveblog-body

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-late...#liveblog-body

[Sephiroth]

Maybe my good friend Carth will think again about claiming his place "down below"!

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Maybe my good friend Carth will think again about claiming his place "down below"!

Get a room!

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Get a room!

Apparently a room is now in the region of £1k a month . . . if you can find one.

Of course that probably depends on if the room is within the M25 corridor or the center of Gateshead

anyway, on topic, here we are yet again with the attacks, the retaliation for the attacks, and the retaliation for the retaliation to the attacks.

More damn repeats than the BBC

That Nobel Peace Prize isn’t going to win itself…

It's pretty notable that they took out Khamenei in the first wave of attacks, big intel win, they presumably have people working for Mossard or the CIA high up in the Iranian regime.

---------- Post added at 09:34 ---------- Previous post was at 09:32 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The Shia/Sunni thing could well stand in the way of that in terms of finding a solution that has a chance.

As I understand, Iran is largely Shia and also not especially devout religiously, it might make Iran a more stable state if it had democratic governance. Might be hopeful though.

https://archive.ph/Zz5RR

As US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran this weekend, bettors on Polymarket — where $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes — were cashing in. Almost immediately, blockchain sleuths began hunting for unusual patterns in recent bets.

Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur. Some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.

These are the hallmarks that blockchain analysts associate with insider trading in prediction markets, an industry without widespread oversight and no agreed-upon methodology for distinguishing luck from leaks — and they’re far from conclusive on their own. Similar patterns suggested that an insider made a big profit betting on the ouster of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in January, and have also been used to identify several other cases of alleged insider trading.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

As I understand, Iran is largely Shia and also not especially devout religiously, it might make Iran a more stable state if it had democratic governance. Might be hopeful though.

If Iraq and Libya are anything go by, it'll make it more unstable. The US are good at bombing, but not the 'what next' bit.

[Sephiroth]

An Englishman in Israel, being interviewed by GB News said: "Keir Starmer makes Neville Chamberlain look Churchillian".

An astute observation.


---------- Post added at 12:47 ---------- Previous post was at 12:46 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

If Iraq and Libya are anything go by, it'll make it more unstable. The US are good at bombing, but not the 'what next' bit.

Although you're not wrong, one step at a time, Squire.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

An Englishman in Israel, being interviewed by GB News said: "Keir Starmer makes Neville Chamberlain look Churchillian".

An astute observation.


---------- Post added at 12:47 ---------- Previous post was at 12:46 ----------



Although you're not wrong, one step at a time, Squire.

But as has been shown repeatedly in recent history, taking one step at a time without having plans for the later steps ends consistently badly, with very negative effects for the population of the country being stepped on…

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

But as has been shown repeatedly in recent history, taking one step at a time without having plans for the later steps ends consistently badly, with very negative effects for the population of the country being stepped on…

Indeed. But if regime change is achieved and Iran's ballistic/nuclear missile capability is destroyed, good will have been done.

It's as I said to Mr. M, though. Israel has an existential threat to deal with. But the USA can rationalise around that, but really it is Trump waving his willy projection.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Indeed. But if regime change is achieved and Iran's ballistic/nuclear missile capability is destroyed, good will have been done.

It's as I said to Mr. M, though. Israel has an existential threat to deal with. But the USA can rationalise around that, but really it is Trump waving his willy projection.

I thought these had been obliterated last year?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/...are-fake-news/

Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News

Take it from those who actually know:
President Trump: “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term! The white structure shown is deeply imbedded into the rock, with even its roof well below ground level, and completely shielded from flame. The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!”

Israel Atomic Energy Commission: “The devastating US strike on Fordo destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, has set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years. The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.”

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir: “I can say here that the assessment is that we significantly damaged the nuclear program, and I can also say that we set it back by years, I repeat, years.”

Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei: “Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure.”

Vice President JD Vance: “I can say to the American people with great confidence that they are much further away from a nuclear program today than they were 24 hours ago. That was the objective of the mission, to destroy that Fordow nuclear site, and of course, do some damage to the other sites as well, but we feel very confident that the Fordow nuclear site was substantially set back, and that was our goal.”

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth: “Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons. Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.”

[papa smurf]

i think we could safely say an empty nuclear site was bombed