Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Paul

Do you really think it would have made any difference, or will make any difference now ?

Netanyahu is clearly a little unbalanced, and his fellow countrymen dont seem to care much.

Only time will tell. As I said before, not recognising it hasn't worked out well for pretty much anyone.

---------- Post added at 23:10 ---------- Previous post was at 22:57 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I see your logic - but is it possible? In a year's time, when Netanyahu is up for election, he'll either have eliminated Hamas or the next generation will be standing in the wings (very likely given the even worse bad egg - Iran). That's how he hopes to retain power - through the gratitude and admiration of the people.

You can't eliminate Hamas by force. The death, destruction and economic damage inflicted on Gaza will doubtless swell their numbers.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Israelis know that they are past the point of no return with the Palestinian people. Israel's behaviour toward the West Bank people has made certain of that.

So, whoever wins the next Israeli GE, the government will be stuck with the logical consequences of Netanyahu's actions.

Given the penetration of Israeli settlements in the West Bank - some 200,000 people. you can see whey [think - Ed] it's the point beyond no return.

The best that Israel could then do in those circumstances, I suggest, is to woo the Palestinians into chucking their lot in with Israel, then annexing the West Bank. I would expect the USA to play a part, given the real estate opportunities. This would require a breakthrough in realism for the Palestinians especially if they can be convinced of several uplift in living standards.

Why is all the above pie in the sky? There are 2+ million Palestinians who, if they become Israeli citizens, could disturb the balance of political power.

Thus - back to square one. Everyone being appalled at Israel with nothing to offer but scolding remarks and no solutions. I suppose that Israel could develop the West Bank, providing employment opportunity for the Palestinians and growth of wealth. If that's Netanyahu's intention, he needs to get them onside - so back to square one!

You rightly draw out the issue of a single-state solution giving the Palestinians quite a lot of influence in a new state which may not gone down well with some elements of the Israeli population. I don't know enough to comment on how it would land.

Peace in countries like Bosnia and Northern Ireland only came about through talks and solutions facilitated by outsiders. The logical country to take a tilt at this would be the USA. However, I view this as impractical under Trump given his very pro-Israel stance.

[1andrew1]

Interesting article from Sky News

The French and British believe Israel is actively working against the possibility of a Palestinian state. Attacks on Palestinians, land seizures, the relentless pace of settlement construction is finishing off the chances of a two-state solution to the conflict, so time for unilateral action they believe.

The Israelis say they have already done so on 7 October and this move only rewards the wicked extremism of Hamas.

But the Netanyahu government has undeniably sought to divide and weaken the Palestinians and has always opposed a Palestinian state.

Israel still has the support of Donald Trump, but opinion polls suggest even in America public sentiment is moving against them. That shift will be hard to reverse.

More than three quarters of the UN's member nations now recognise a state of Palestine, four out of five of the security council's permanent members.

The move is hugely problematic. Where exactly is the state, what are its borders, will it now be held to account for its extremists, who exactly is its government?

But more and more countries believe it had to happen. That leaves Israel increasingly ostracised and for a small country in a difficult neighbourhood that is not a good place to be, however strong it is militarily.

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-is...to-be-13436492

[Carth]

I'm just waiting for the Great Turnaround, when they all name Palestine a terrorist state when it all kicks off again . . . which it will.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Interesting article from Sky News

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-is...to-be-13436492

The French and British believe Israel is actively working against the possibility of a Palestinian state.

Why would Israel want a terrorist state?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Why would Israel want a terrorist state?

Unfortunately, some voted for Netanyahu and that's what they've got till the next election.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Unfortunately, some voted for Netanyahu and that's what they've got till the next election.

Doesn't answer the question "why would Israel want a terrorist state?"

The West Bank would always be an "enemy state" while Iran is still in business.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Doesn't answer the question "why would Israel want a terrorist state?"

The West Bank would always be an "enemy state" while Iran is still in business.

You would have to ask those who voted for Netanyahu that question.

Why Iran is to blame for settlers killing and evicting Palestinians in the West Bank is something you need to work harder on to convince.me.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You would have to ask those who voted for Netanyahu that question.

Why Iran is to blame for settlers killing and evicting Palestinians in the West Bank is something you need to work harder on to convince.me.

Your points are tangential to the question. I cannot imagine why you use the Iran case to deplore Israel's atrocious behaviour in the West Bank.

It's really quite simple (and on more than one front):

1. Iran has vowed to destroy Israel.

2. Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran's proxies and have murdered hundreds of Israelis.

3. In this atmosphere, Jews and Muslims in that region violently oppose it each to the extent of mutual hatred.

4. It follows, especially in the light of the Gaza business, that West Bank Palestinians would vote for Hamas or Hamas in disguise at the next election (which is well overdue).

5. The October 7th atrocity triggered Israel into what we've seen. It hasn't helped that Israel has deliberately (it seems) made life impossible for the 2 million Gazans. It also hasn't helped that Hamas haven't released all the hostages, thus prolonging the agony for the Gazans.

6. All of the above amount to madness should Palestine become a fully independent state. Indeed, the settlements that Israel is (brutally in some instances) laying down in the West Bank make an independent Palestine an impossibility.

If Netanhayu is displaced in the 2026 elections, the new government will have to face the facts, particularly as regards Iran - which is why Israel has reasonable relations with the UAE, Jordan, Egypt and (almost) Saudi Arabia.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Unfortunately, some voted for Netanyahu and that's what they've got till the next election.

I would think most Israelis would not want to be living adjacent a terrorist state, so it only stands to reason that Israel should actively working against the possibility of a Palestinian state.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I would think most Israelis would not want to be living adjacent a terrorist state, so it only stands to reason that Israel should actively working against the possibility of a Palestinian state.

As a terrorist state, Israel has worked to take over as much of Palestine as it can get away with. The links between Hamas and Israel are interesting; it seems Netanyahu favours a divided Palestinian people over a safer Israel.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

As a terrorist state, Israel has worked to take over as much of Palestine as it can get away with. The links between Hamas and Israel are interesting; it seems Netanyahu favours a divided Palestinian people over a safer Israel.

I disagree, wholeheartedly with the occupied territories in the west.

But Israel can’t take over Palestine as Palestine does not exist, I think you’re referring to Jordan. Israel could always give it back to Jordan.

Gaza is also not Palestine, it was given to the Arab population to administer but they have forfeited their claim to it, so Israel have taken it back, and will probably keep it, or they could give it back to Egypt, but Egypt have made it clear they don’t want it.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

As a terrorist state, Israel has worked to take over as much of Palestine as it can get away with. The links between Hamas and Israel are interesting; it seems Netanyahu favours a divided Palestinian people over a safer Israel.

Is this just jumping on the bandwagon, Andrew, or a serious view that Israel is a terrorist state (like Iran e.g.)?

I suspect that Israel has taken a hard look at their prospects under a two state solution and didn't fancy their chances. However, reports of intimidation etc carried out by Israeli settlers in the West Bank are a far cry from Israel being a terrorist state.

We have to be realistic as to what the future would hold for Israel if a Palestinian state, armed by Iran, were to form in the West Bank.

Narrow thinking is not the answer.


---------- Post added at 09:43 ---------- Previous post was at 09:38 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

I disagree, wholeheartedly with the occupied territories in the west.

But Israel can’t take over Palestine as Palestine does not exist, I think you’re referring to Jordan. Israel could always give it back to Jordan.

Gaza is also not Palestine, it was given to the Arab population to administer but they have forfeited their claim to it, so Israel have taken it back, and will probably keep it, or they could give it back to Egypt, but Egypt have made it clear they don’t want it.

I knew someone fairly high up in the Israeli foreign ministry. He told me that Jordan, who themselves had annexed the West Bank (1950 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan..._the_West_Bank ). He told me that by 1988, when formal renunciation of Jordan's claim to the territory was made, quite simply, Jordan did not want it back.

Btw, the linked article is very interesting as it properly sets the scene for current problems in handling the West Bank.

[tweetiepooh]

What Israel will never give up include Jerusalem and any point of military advantage (Golan).

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Is this just jumping on the bandwagon, Andrew, or a serious view that Israel is a terrorist state (like Iran e.g.)?

I suspect that Israel has taken a hard look at their prospects under a two state solution and didn't fancy their chances. However, reports of intimidation etc carried out by Israeli settlers in the West Bank are a far cry from Israel being a terrorist state.

We have to be realistic as to what the future would hold for Israel if a Palestinian state, armed by Iran, were to form in the West Bank.

Narrow thinking is not the answer.

I've not traditionally seen Israel as a terrorist state and there's a lot about the country I've admired. But it has changed and its activities over the last two years mean it warrants the label.

Netanyahu's really just focused on his own survival and not being held to account for his part in not preventing 7/10. And shooting and evicting people from their own houses in the West Bank is more than harassment.

No one is going to pretend any solution - one-state or two-state will be easy. But it's good that recognition by Western countries comes with Hamas being excluded.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

What Israel will never give up include Jerusalem and any point of military advantage (Golan).

Nothing wrong with that. The Arabs in 1956, 1967, 1972 etc should not have attacked Israel. That's what Israel's up against in this missile age.

---------- Post added at 10:00 ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I've not traditionally seen Israel as a terrorist state and there's a lot about the country I've admired. But it has changed and its activities over the last two years mean it warrants the label.

Netanyahu's really just focused on his own survival and not being held to account for his part in not preventing 7/10. And shooting and evicting people from their own houses in the West Bank is more than harassment.

No one is going to pretend any solution - one-state or two-state will be easy. But it's good that recognition by Western countries comes with Hamas being excluded.

I've not traditionally seen Israel as a terrorist state and there's a lot about the country I've admired. But it has changed and its activities over the last two years mean it warrants the label.

That's a disgraceful thing to say. Remember October 7th - the trigger for what's happening now.

Netanyahu's really just focused on his own survival and not being held to account for his part in not preventing 7/10. And shooting and evicting people from their own houses in the West Bank is more than harassment.

Agreed on Netanyahu focusing on self-survival. But how the hell could he have prevented 7/10? The shooting/evictions you mentioned are indeed a stain on Netanyahu's government but it doesn't brand Israel as a terrorist state; that's going too far.