Reform UK's chronicles

[Russ]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I hope that Reform does a better job with the Welsh homeless than your precious Labour. Although - I doubt it.

I didn’t vote Labour.

Enough bickering. Back on topic please. Several posts deleted.

[Itshim]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

With a bit of luck, Reform UK will get control of Wales.
I've no idea whether or not they'll solve Wales' problems, but it'll certainly rile one or two forum members who are obviously practising now.

Plaid cymru are ahead in the last poll , labour with a Welsh name. It will make no difference, same horse different jockey v

[Russ]

If it keeps the Tories and Reform out then it can only be a good thing.

[Itshim]

Originally Posted by Russ

If it keeps the Tories and Reform out then it can only be a good thing.

Love your sense of humour

[Russ]

Originally Posted by Itshim

Love your sense of humour

Common sense. Tories have a shining record with corruption and austerity. 14 years I believe it was.

Reform are totally untested and all their ideas are short-terms soundbites aimed at seducing the mainly uneducated.

Better the devil you know.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Russ

Common sense. Tories have a shining record with corruption and austerity. 14 years I believe it was.

Reform are totally untested and all their ideas are short-terms soundbites aimed at seducing the mainly uneducated.

Better the devil you know.

If Labour come good sooner rather than later in terms of the UK's well being, then you're right.

On present economic and immigration record, the two "devils we know" are bad news.

On your point about Reform UK being untested: Fair enough, They have c. 4 years to make the local councils work better in terms of budgets and local services and tackling homelessness. If they fail there, we'll have three "devils we know" and we might as well emigrate - if we can.

[Russ]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

On present economic and immigration record, the two "devils we know" are bad news.

I had no idea you were in Wales, well you learn something new each day.

From the Economist

https://archive.ph/gZS15

Reform’s policies add up to an agenda of fiscal recklessness that rivals, and may well exceed, the disastrous 49-day, hair-raising, market-tanking premiership of Liz Truss in 2022.

Reform’s manifesto from the 2024 election is a starting-point. The party has since crab-walked away from the document, but it remains the only entry under “Policies” on its website. More tellingly, Mr Farage has specifically reaffirmed, or expanded on, nearly half the tax cuts listed in recent months. The manifesto puts Reform’s giveaways at £140bn ($190bn, 5% of gdp) per year, but claims to offset them with savings worth £160bn. Even on a generous-but-realistic accounting, The Economist estimates that the annual costs are in the region of £200bn and savings around £100bn (see chart). The gap between the two would amount to a colossal fiscal shock, blowing up the deficit and straining the gilt market to its limits.

Why the mismatch? Take taxes first. The changes are so vast that precise costings are futile. But Reform has made serially generous guesses. The party claims its personal-tax cuts cost £70bn a year. But the proposed lift to income-tax thresholds alone would cost at least that much, probably more, based on rules-of-thumb from hmrc, the tax agency. Adding cuts to fuel duty, stamp duty, vat, inheritance tax and more adds tens of billions.

Recently, Mr Farage has doubled down on his single costliest pledge, to lift the personal allowance for income tax from £12,570 to £20,000. And he now wants to fully abolish inheritance tax. The manifesto promises businesses £18bn of giveaways too. But the promise to cut corporation tax by ten percentage points alone is worth double that. And the realistic take from one of Reform’s main revenue-raisers, dropping some interest payments on Bank of England reserves, is a mere fraction of the £35bn stated.

Then comes spending. Reform wants £30bn-40bn more for health, defence and fighting crime. To pay, and cover tax cuts, the party relies on hand-waving and austerity. Questionably, it asserts that its policies will add one percentage point to growth (a near-doubling) and take 1m Britons off benefits. In addition, it suggests a 5% cut across government (austerity not far off the 2010s), plus unfathomably vast savings from ending net zero.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Russ

Just think about what £32b could have done for homelessness, including the written-off £5bn of fraud.

If it’s written off it’s because it’s irretrievable. And your solution is….

Yes, better change the subject!

---------- Post added at 21:52 ---------- Previous post was at 21:50 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

With a bit of luck, Reform UK will get control of Wales.
I've no idea whether or not they'll solve Wales' problems, but it'll certainly rile one or two forum members who are obviously practising now.

It would help to show the kind of difference Reform could make in Westminster. It can’t be a bad thing.

---------- Post added at 21:54 ---------- Previous post was at 21:52 ----------

Originally Posted by Russ

Given the number of Tory defectors I think it has more to do with Reform than you’re making out.

So we can only talk about what could have been done to help homeless people when it benefits your precious Reform?

You think that amount of money cannot help the homeless? How much do you think it would cost, for heaven’s sake. That’s a lot of money.

[Mr K]

As with Brexit, maybe the public will only find put the hard way about populists and their true motives.
They can always blame someone else...

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Russ

Common sense. Tories have a shining record with corruption and austerity. 14 years I believe it was.

Reform are totally untested and all their ideas are short-terms soundbites aimed at seducing the mainly uneducated.

Better the devil you know.

Yeah, yeah. The devils we know are Labour and the Conservatives, so no thanks.

If you always go for the ‘tried and tested’ that have rarely come up with solutions the public want, it’s time to move beyond that. Reform is saying a lot of things the man in the street really thinks, and that’s what bothers people such as your good self, who are quite happy to inflict your way onto everyone else, whether they like it or not.

---------- Post added at 22:02 ---------- Previous post was at 21:58 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

As with Brexit, maybe the public will only find put the hard way about populists and their true motives.
They can always blame someone else...

We wouldn’t have landed the recent trade deals with the US, India, Australia and the CTPPP if we were still in the EU. We would be paying 27.5% on car exports instead of 10%, and we would not have achieved 0% on steel.

We will soon feel the impact of these trade deals and once that happens, it will slowly dawn on the remainers that there’s no going back and that Brexit was a good thing after all.

Even boring old Starmer seems to have latched on to that.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yeah, yeah. The devils we know are Labour and the Conservatives, so no thanks.

If you always go for the ‘tried and tested’ that have rarely come u
p with solutions the public want, it’s time to move beyond that. Reform is saying a lot of things the man in the street really thinks, and that’s what bothers people such as your good self, who are quite happy to inflict your way onto everyone else, whether they like it or not.

Pot calling the kettle, black!

Anyway, I thought you were a confirmed Tory Boy, OB? How did you get it so wrong?!

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

<SNIP>

It would help to show the kind of difference Reform could make in Westminster. It can’t be a bad thing.

<SNIP>.

I'm not sure at this point that Reform is able to justify some of their policies in funding terms. How will they fund their commitment to abolishing Inheritance Tax, the £20,000 tax threshold, reduction in corporation tax? They are open to attack - and Hugh has already posted an important analysis by The Economist.

If my party, the Conservatives, don't come right, I would want Reform to be electable.

A £20,000 tax threashold would be great, but not very realistic.
I think most people would be happy if it was just increased for inflation.
Had this happened each year, it would be somewhere around 15,300 now.