Russia has invaded Ukraine

[noel43]

Originally Posted by jfman

Which brings me full circle.

The headline and story as presented would have been inconceivable 12 months ago. This is not accidental.

We should have sent heavy rocketry to Ukraine from the start.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by noel43

We should have sent heavy rocketry to Ukraine from the start.

Yes we should however Ukraine has deleoped its own UAV's that have enabled it to attack several air bases and destroy weapons there.

The recent invasion into the Kursk region has lifted the spirits of the ordinary people in the west of the country and raised the number who wish to volunteer.

How do I know this? Well unlike some of our sofa generals here. I'm actually in Ukraine ATM. Currently in Chernivsti and next week will be in Lviv.

The TCC are still despised as a soviet remnant (rightly so) but battalions themseleves are now also recruiting (eg azov). Watch this space. We don't know what the goal is in what Ukrianes objectives are (in Kursk) and quite right that is for Ukraine to know and no-one else.

Ukraine is exposing Russia’s inability to police its own borders at the moment. Ironically, the US escalation management policy that has until now restrained Ukraine from making any serious ground assault within Russia has probably helped here - now Ukraine has gone ahead and done it anyway the Russians have been caught flat-footed, apparently believing Ukraine couldn’t, or wouldn’t, venture over the border and not fortifying it adequately.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ukraine is exposing Russia’s inability to police its own borders at the moment. Ironically, the US escalation management policy that has until now restrained Ukraine from making any serious ground assault within Russia has probably helped here - now Ukraine has gone ahead and done it anyway the Russians have been caught flat-footed, apparently believing Ukraine couldn’t, or wouldn’t, venture over the border and not fortifying it adequately.

100%

Nonsense post (and reply) removed.

The Russian spokesperson really took the pee.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Kyiv of "intimidating the peaceful population of Russia".

Really ? ... and what have you been doing to the peaceful population of Ukraine for the last 2.5 years ...

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ukraine is exposing Russia’s inability to police its own borders at the moment. Ironically, the US escalation management policy that has until now restrained Ukraine from making any serious ground assault within Russia has probably helped here - now Ukraine has gone ahead and done it anyway the Russians have been caught flat-footed, apparently believing Ukraine couldn’t, or wouldn’t, venture over the border and not fortifying it adequately.

OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?

There are a number of possible scenarios. If they hold it against the possibility of a Trump win in November, it becomes territory to swap in an enforced peace deal. In the more immediate term it will force Russia to redeploy forces from territory it holds in Ukraine - if nothing else, it is going to bring Russia’s glacial advances in the southeast of the country to a final halt. With Russia on the back foot (there are no significant fortifications, so Ukraine is not attacking entrenched positions) there are opportunities for Ukraine to destroy significant amounts of Russian military potential, both men and equipment. After reading military historians and strategists for more than 2 years now the one thing I know they all agree on is that war is about destroying your enemy’s ability to attack you much more than it is about taking territory.

However, don’t underestimate the significance of the fact that they have gone so far into Russia, and so quickly. There are strategic assets they can reach from where they now are, including railways hubs and possibly even a nuclear power station.

The Ukrainian leadership has been so tight-lipped about this, in truth nobody really knows what the plan is. However, you’ll find some informed speculation if you read Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army general, who has written about it here:

https://open.substack.com/pub/mickry...rational-phase

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Pierre

OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?

It could be to ease pressure on other sectors of the front and to make Russia use forces defending the boarder that could be better used from their perspective attacking Ukraine

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Pierre

OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?

Why are you asking this question? Even the USA don't know what the plan is. Obiously Ukraine had a plan, developed it and executed it. OPSEC was sealed tight and even now no one except Ukraine knows what the goal is.

Really do you expect Ukraine to tell everything they are doing while fighting a war to the world and Russia?

.

Lets cut out the digs please.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Why are you asking this question?

Because I’m interested /curious, why do you ask any question, why are you asking this question?

Really do you expect Ukraine to tell everything they are doing while fighting a war to the world and Russia?

I was actually asking for the opinions and views from commentators on this site. This is a “discussion forum” is it not?

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Because I’m interested /curious, why do you ask any question, why are you asking this question?



I was actually asking for the opinions and views from commentators on this site. This is a “discussion forum” is it not?

Fair enough Pierre as an armchair General I would say this appears a good move by Ukraine. It has shown the Russian people that Russia cannot protect its borders. In fairness there are no borders only front lines.

Conscripts who have to serve are by law are only requiered to serve in Russian terratory and many of them in the area have and are surrendering to Ukraine forces. Those 18 yr olds don't wan to fight.

So, we do not know what Ukraines objective is. Feel free to speculate.

The effect on conscripts and conscript families shouldn't be underestimated. It’s against the law for them to be deployed outside Russia and thus far these young, mostly unwilling men have avoided serious conflict. Now they’re on the front line, surrendering en masse, and Russia’s territorial defence is shown to be a chimera. That’s not to say Ukraine can or should (or even wants to) march on Moscow, but in terms of how Russians conceive of themselves and their government, it has to have an impact.

Originally Posted by Pierre

OK, so what’s the plan? They’re not pushing back Russia in the areas Russia has gained.

So they have undertaken this incursion to what end? As a bargaining chip? Can be the only reason as far as I can tell, if they Can they hold what they have taken?

https://kyivindependent.com/kursk-in...ussian-troops/

Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast aims to prevent Moscow from sending additional reinforcements to the front in Donbas and stop Russian cross-border strikes, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at a press conference on Aug. 13 attended by a Kyiv Independent reporter.

"Unlike Russia, Ukraine does not seek to seize territory. We want to protect the lives of our people," spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said…

… "I would like to remind you that since the beginning of this summer, Ukraine's Sumy Oblast has been targeted with over 2,000 strikes using multiple launch rocket systems, mortars, drones, 255 guided bombs, and more than a hundred missiles, launched from Kursk Oblast," Tykhyi said.

"Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have sufficient capabilities to carry out long-range strikes with the weapons it has to defend itself against this terror," Tykhyi said.

"Therefore, there is a need to liberate these border areas – with the help of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – from the Russian military contingent that strikes at Ukraine."

The Kursk incursion also helps to prevent Russia from "moving additional units to Donetsk Oblast and complicating (Russian) military logistics," the spokesperson added.

[Pierre]

Skys defence editor says Ukraine sources will use gains as bargaining chips in peace negotiations

Watch: Kursk invasion 'aims to give Kyiv leverage in potential peace negotiations'
Ukraine's move into the Russian territory of Kursk is an "astonishing assault", our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes reports.
According to a source, the shock invasion of Kursk has several goals, including the creation of a buffer zone inside Russia to provide greater protection for communities living in areas like Sumy, which has been under bombardment for the past two and a half years.
Haynes said her source believed the assault could create an "element of trading" which would allow Kyiv to swap territories with Russia if it came to it during potential peace negotiations.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-r...#liveblog-body


Peace negotiations…………fancy that.