The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024

Yeah him serving one term would make him the 3rd PM to do so since Blair, Cameron being the other one.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

Yeah him serving one term would make him the 3rd PM to do so since Blair, Cameron being the other one.

Given the Conservatives are likely to tack to the right even more instead of moving back towards the centre ground its likely they will be out of office for two terms at least.

Only my prediction mind.

[jfman]

Stolen from twitter

I was worried Starmer could be a one term Prime Minister until I read that Camilla Tominey has written an article saying Starmer could be a one term Prime Minister.

[Itshim]

Guess nothing changes, get in with less votes than Jeremy got when he lost. Reform get around the same numbers as libdems. Labour in Wales get less votes than ever before and get more seats. Any other countries would have riots by now. UK swings to the left. Europe and I guess in the near future USA swing to the right. What fun this is going to be.Good luck I think you are going to need it.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Trouble for Rishi, our Tory voter hasn't turned out yet

As tactical Lib dem vote for me, even if the candidate is a plonker.

Well im on a very need break.

my dads in hospital and im in Great Yarmouth.

[Pierre]

Strange that Mr K, and other usual suspects on here, aren’t complaining that two thirds of the country didn’t vote for this government?

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Strange that Mr K, and other usual suspects on here, aren’t complaining that two thirds of the country didn’t vote for this government?

More people voted for them than anyone else. The vast majority didn't vote for the Tories in 2019 or for Brexit in 2016

I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past.

[Escapee]

Originally Posted by Mr K

More people voted for them than anyone else. The vast majority didn't vote for the Tories in 2019 or for Brexit in 2016

I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past.

I didn't want change when we were previously asked because I was hesitant about any changes to the system which has been in place for a long time. Although I would say in more recent years (not just this election but also taking Wales into account) we have seen more reason to consider asking the public again.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mr K

More people voted for them than anyone else.

True, but so it was in 2010, 2015 and every other Tory win.

The vast majority didn't vote for the Tories in 2019 or for Brexit in 2016

The vast majority haven’t voted for Labour.

I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past.

It’s moot point, PR was rejected in 2011 anyway, but I just found it amusing, as when it’s your team that wins ……..it’s fine that only a third of the country voted for them.

---------- Post added at 18:04 ---------- Previous post was at 18:02 ----------

Originally Posted by Escapee

I didn't want change when we were previously asked because I was hesitant about any changes to the system which has been in place for a long time. Although I would say in more recent years (not just this election but also taking Wales into account) we have seen more reason to consider asking the public again.

Personally, although it doesn’t seem fair or indeed representative, I still prefer our system as it delivers an outright winner (mostly).

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Pierre

It’s moot point, PR was rejected in 2011 anyway, but I just found it amusing, as when it’s your team that wins ……..it’s fine that only a third of the country voted for them.

But the Lib Dems didn't win In fact they've suffered most from the current system over the years. Don't recall many Tories complaining about the unfairness of FTP then.

The 2011 referendum had both main parties campaigning against PR, and we voted as we were told.

Who do you think should be running the place as a result of the recent election ?

[Escapee]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Personally, although it doesn’t seem fair or indeed representative, I still prefer our system as it delivers an outright winner (mostly).

We have a system in the Welsh Assembly where Labour are propped up by Plaid who never seem to get much more than 20% share of the vote. The cost of Plaid propping up Labour is the implementation of a few barking policies, which is not fair when IIRC only around 4% of the population of Wales tend to vote for Plaid.

What also makes it unfair is lying politicians like Adam Price of Plaid saying "There's no way will Plaid be propping up a Welsh Labour government". I think it was 3 weeks or so later they did a deal to prop them up.

I know we are talking about Westminster, but we saw similar with the Lib Dems propping up the Conservatives for a price. I don't think there should be these sort of dodgy deals which doesn't reflect the wishes of the voters.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

It’s moot point, PR was rejected in 2011 anyway, but I just found it amusing, as when it’s your team that wins ……..it’s fine that only a third of the country voted for them.

I do wonder by the 2028/9 election whether PR could end up back on the agenda in manifestos. Ultimately it wouldn't be voted for again until 2031 and implemented at least until the 2033/4 general election.

If Farage is serious about it - and I don't think he is - FPTP creates really distorted results in a 4 party system. It has always created distorted results in a three party system just ones that I think people lived with because it gave the most popular party a working majority at any given time.

However if a sizeable number of people (as it hits 50% for example) are voting for someone who isn't the Conservatives or Labour that willingness to tolerate it will break down.

[Angua]

Originally Posted by jfman

I do wonder by the 2028/9 election whether PR could end up back on the agenda in manifestos. Ultimately it wouldn't be voted for again until 2031 and implemented at least until the 2033/4 general election.

If Farage is serious about it - and I don't think he is - FPTP creates really distorted results in a 4 party system. It has always created distorted results in a three party system just ones that I think people lived with because it gave the most popular party a working majority at any given time.

However if a sizeable number of people (as it hits 50% for example) are voting for someone who isn't the Conservatives or Labour that willingness to tolerate it will break down.

As someone pointed out, it would need both Labour & Tories to gain less than 50% of the seats at a GE for it to be considered, they are both too wedded to adversarial politics.

Unfortunately AV was never PR, as it is about the only voting system that manages to be both better and worse than FPTP.

Also this is an interesting investigation from By-line Times regarding invisible candidates. https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/r...e-they-hiding/

[jfman]

It'd be quite something if it could be proven they fielded candidates who didn't exist.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by jfman

It'd be quite something if it could be proven they fielded candidates who didn't exist.

This story is gaining quite an amount of traction (albeit, not necessarily with evidence). I do suspect they were simply paper candidates and the lack of online presence could be explained by deactivating to avoid personal or professional scrutiny.

If it could be proven I wonder what recourse there would be for those candidates who lost by less than the number of reform votes.