The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6

[denphone]

Landslide it is then..

https://www.survation.com/survation-...-than-in-1997/

With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

These predictions come from a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model which uses data from over 30,000 respondents to make seat-level forecasts.

The model’s implied vote share indicates that Labour will win around 42% of the vote, just under twenty percentage points ahead of the Conservative party on 23%.

It ain’t over till it’s over…

There are always the "shy" Conservative and Reform voters…

[denphone]

l don't disagree as there are probably several shy Conservative and Reform voters just on this forum.

[jfman]

I think the biggest “risk” to Labour is Labour voters staying home.

[mrmistoffelees]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...tion_main.html

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...tion_main.html

That one gives the Liberal Democrats more seats than the Conservatives. Chris has already mentioned this as a scenario and interesting to see it in this poll of polls.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

That one gives the Liberal Democrats more seats than the Conservatives. Chris has already mentioned this as a scenario and interesting to see it in this poll of polls.

Indeed……

The childish side of me kek’d at this

https://www.thepoke.com/2024/07/02/r...McLBh5FhbMXXgQ

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Indeed……

The childish side of me kek’d at this

https://www.thepoke.com/2024/07/02/r...McLBh5FhbMXXgQ

That's very good.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

That one gives the Liberal Democrats more seats than the Conservatives. Chris has already mentioned this as a scenario and interesting to see it in this poll of polls.

It’s now also visible in Survation’s latest MRP poll (massive sample, statistical jiggery-pokery at the constituency level).

While it is not their most probable outcome, they are giving only a 53% chance of the Tories getting more seats than the Lib Dems. If these newfangled MRP polls are as good as their makers say they are, Ed Davey as leader of His Majesty’s loyal opposition is an outcome now very much in play.

https://www.survation.com/survation-...-than-in-1997/

There has been evidence throughout this campaign of Labour directing its resources outside of most constituencies in southwest England where the Lib Dems are most likely to take a seat off a Tory. I’m soaking up the drizzle in Penzance this morning, where some streets have an orange diamond in almost every window. So far I’ve seen just one Tory house on the western prom road and Labour is entirely absent.

[Mr K]

My sister who has been a US resident for 20 years, and has dual nationality, has a vote in the UK election. She's not planning to vote, but farcical that people that haven't been UK resident for decades are getting a say. Presumably as the Gov thinks they'll vote Tory.

---------- Post added at 10:58 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

It ain’t over till it’s over…

There are always the "shy" Conservative and Reform voters…

Yes they'll all crawl out of the woodwork tomorrow, hopefully not enough of them but it will be closer than the polls say. Also the Reform rats returning back to the Con sinking ship....

[ianch99]

It has been interesting that they have avoided wheeling out Johnson for obvious reasons but I guess they are now desperate. His speech yesterday confirmed their fears I think. He reminded most people why the Tories are being rejected and a lot of the reasons behind this are down to him.

The other curiosity is the effective absence of Jeremy Hunt in this campaign. Maybe he is too busy packing

Originally Posted by Mr K

My sister who has been a US resident for 20 years, and has dual nationality, has a vote in the UK election. She's not planning to vote, but farcical that people that haven't been UK resident for decades are getting a say. Presumably as the Gov thinks they'll vote Tory.

That’s not unusual. Off the top of my head, the US and France both allow long-term ex pats to vote as well. The French parliament has constituencies for parts of the world where there are lots of ex-pats. The UK is within the ‘northern Europe’ constituency.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ed Davey as leader of His Majesty’s loyal opposition is an outcome now very much in play.

Ed Davey has run a brilliant campaign by not being the Tories or Reform.

Just goofing about and not talking about policies.

Genius

[Escapee]

I was down the Indian last night for my weekly meal, the owner did say to me on the weekend that he would be voting for the Greens instead of Labour.

He went along to a Nigel Farage event, which he said had a good Muslim attendance. He said the mosque is now promoting a vote for Reform.

I'm predicting obviously a Labour win, but I don't think the majority will be as big as predicted. I haven't heard much of an argument for a vote for Starmer other than he's not the Conservatives. I think the pressure will be on him from day one, he's not going to grow the economy if he increases business taxes so tax the working person is the only option he has.

I saw an interview with Andrew Fisher who was director of policy in the Labour party under Corbyn. It's interesting for someone like me who has been described as "Slightly to the right of Hitler" to get an extreme left wing view other than on CF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T28aFimDfBw

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Escapee

He went along to a Nigel Farage event, which he said had a good Muslim attendance. He said the mosque is now promoting a vote for Reform

That's like turkeys voting for Christmas

Originally Posted by Escapee

I'm predicting obviously a Labour win, but I don't think the majority will be as big as predicted. I haven't heard much of an argument for a vote for Starmer other than he's not the Conservatives. I think the pressure will be on him from day one, he's not going to grow the economy if he increases business taxes so tax the working person is the only option he has

Labout have a lot of options in the area like CGT, tax on dividends, financial services, high net worth individuals, property sales, offshore tax havens, etc. They just need to get creative. So far, they plan is not scare the horses but once they are in power they can be a lot more honest about the system that rewards the few and start making some changes.