Liz Truss Resigns [Who'll be the next Prime Minister?]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think almost any seat Labour managed to hold in 2019 is unlikely to be a marginal next time around.

I’d never have expected the Tories to win it or even reduce the gap. The question is how big a drop in their support there will be. There is a sizeable contingent of the blue rinse brigade in Chester and the Tories’ base support there is, or should be, quite solid. I predict it won’t be.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

The Boris backers represent the Utterly Tone Deaf Group of Tory MPs, chairman the Rt Hon Jacob Rees-Mogg MP.

52 of them is astonishingly bad in itself, if it gets anywhere near 100 you would have to wonder whether they’re even fully functioning members of the human race.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

He isn't that popular. He had dire approval ratings when he left. But he is popular with the Tory base which is why he'll probably win.

Left? I prefer forced out of office in disgrace

Originally Posted by Chris

Meanwhile, Chris Mathieson (Lab, Chester) has got a serious slap from the standards watchdog for inviting a member of his staff on a dirty weekend (she did not appreciate his advances). His suspension is long enough for a recall petition to be got up, and while the Tories would be mad to actually try that, he has apparently forced the issue for himself and resigned. So we are in for a by election in a seat that Labour held in 2019 with a 6,000 majority over Con, and which is marginal enough that Con has itself held in the past (Giles Brandreth was MP there).

You sure that's how it works? I thought standard protocol was to cover it up and then change the rules

[denphone]

Ben Wallace rules himself out of the leadership race.

And backs Johnson.

Seems like this is only going one way

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

And backs Johnson.

Seems like this is only going one way

He might popular within the Tory party but Boris Johnson last ratings with YouGov suggest that is he not popular within the country.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/sta...77763465326593

Boris backers imagine that Johnson can turn this around. But you can't unburn toast. Here are Johnson's final ratings with YouGov on different characteristics:
Competence: -43
Trustworthiness: -65
Decisiveness: -35
Strength: -24
Likeability: -13

This version of the Tory Party has shown no interest in what the public thinks, it's all about them.

[jfman]

I expect the Johnson support to fizzle out. They’ll all be declaring earlier, while everyone else debates Sunak v Mordaunt.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

This version of the Tory Party has shown no interest in what the public thinks, it's all about them.

That is very much the case but they don't seem to understand or want to understand that public opinion thinks very much differently.

Opinions polls don't tell the whole story but political parties ignore them at their peril.

[jfman]

Interestingly from the Guido tracker - to the extent it holds credibility at all - of the “anonymous” MPs who hold positions in the party and “have to remain neutral” it’s 17 for Johnson, 1 for Rishi and 2 for Penny.

Either
a) it’s made up to give the impression he’s more popular than he is
or b) party office holders are that far out of touch with the rest of their MPs.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Newsnight nailed it last night

https://twitter.com/timoncheese/stat...Q06tgj17-FIwRA

Here’s another one from C4 News

https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1...KD-5-pPqclAcgA

[Dave42]

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/stat...34848898756608

NEW
UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.

NB all bonds moving a lot today but UK more than most
Chart is the two year gilt yield

I wouldn't read too much into the gilts on this, they are based on assumptions of what Johnson would do rather than the unfolding reality of what Truss was doing.

[Dave42]

https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/st...66532344328193

I’ve been encouraged by support from colleagues who want a fresh start, a united party and leadership in the national interest.

I’m running to be the leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister - to unite our country, deliver our pledges and win the next GE.

I wonder if Johnson will actually stand? Maybe he feels too much resistance despite being confident of the numbers, maybe worried about the privileges committee finding against him and taking the mantle now as the economy declines?